3 Dark Horse Picks for Today's Kentucky Derby

Up to 20 horses run in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs every year. Especially in 2025, with such a hot favorite as Journalism, most of the field will be long shots. But -- even in a year with a favorite who looks quite good -- there’s a lot of room for long shots to outrun their odds or even win the whole thing.

After all, none of the horses have tried 1 ¼ miles before. Final round preps on the road to the Kentucky Derby, like the Florida Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) typically cover 1 ⅛ miles. The longest, the Louisiana Derby (G2) and UAE Derby (G2), only go 1 3/16 miles, the Preakness distance.

None of the horses have run in a 20-horse field before, either. Not to mention, such a large field size can always add up to some chaos, and a lot of luck in order to get not just a good trip, but the winning one. If the favorites get snarled up in a mass of horses, that could give a pace-advantaged long shot, or one who got a particularly shrewd ride, the right trip to win.

When planning your betting strategy, make sure to pay attention to form, pace, and the latest Kentucky Derby news. But don’t forget about these three price horses, who might just shock the world on Derby day like Rich Strike, Country House, or Mine That Bird before them.

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1. Chunk of Gold: 30-1 ML

The advent of the Kentucky Derby points system increased the emphasis on longer prep races, making it far less likely for the Kentucky Derby pace to feature a bunch of sprinters burning themselves out and setting up for closers. However, it still happens sometimes that some intrepid speed horses will duel each other into submission and set up for a long shot closer, like Rich Strike in 2022.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby field has more one-way speed than any edition since the beginning of the points system. Need-the-lead types like Citizen Bull, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty will be battling, and American Promise won’t be too far behind, either. Those early fractions are going to sizzle, and that’s great news for Chunk of Gold.

Chunk of Gold is still looking for his first stakes win, but earned enough qualifying points at Fair Grounds with runner-up finishes in the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star (G2) to comfortably earn a spot in the Run for the Roses. He was perhaps a little closer to a hot pace than he wanted to be in the Louisiana Derby, but still made a good run of it and stayed on for the place. A trip more like what he got in the Leonatus or Risen Star is more likely.

His under-the-radar connections will help the price—and though it is trainer Ethan West’s first time on the Derby trail, jockey Jareth Loveberry has been here before with Two Phil’s. Loveberry won the 2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) with Two Phil’s and then gave him a brilliant ride in the Kentucky Derby, ultimately finishing second to Mage.

Finally, there’s also pedigree appeal. His young sire Preservationist, a long-winded son of Arch, won the 1 ¼-mile Suburban. Damsire Cairo Prince was also bred to stay, and his dam is half to My Boy Jack, who ran a credible fifth in the Kentucky Derby behind Justify.

2. Final Gambit: 30-1 ML

Final Gambit tries dirt for the first time on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs—but just ask the connections of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. If your horse is good enough, a lack of dirt experience is not going to get in the way.

The big appeal for Final Gambit is his running style. In both a one-mile maiden win at Turfway Park in February as well as an even more emphatic victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks there the next month, Final Gambit closed like a freight train. In a race with so many need-the-lead types signed on, that running style is going to be a benefit … and with the pace in the Jeff Ruby honest but not truly torrid, Final Gambit likely gets an even better setup at Churchill Downs.

Even though Final Gambit has only ever run on turf and Tapeta, his pedigree suggests that dirt could suit him. Sire Not This Time was a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed on dirt, and has gone on to become one of the best sires in the game. Not This Time can throw a good horse on any surface: he sired champion three-year-old and Kentucky Derby runner-up Epicenter, as well as long-winded turf champion Up to the Mark.

His damsire is Belmont Stakes super-sire Tapit, which adds some dirt influence to a nice European turf family. His dam Pachinko’s only win came in a maiden special weight turf mile, but she is half to several serious lawnmowers like Announce, winner of the Prix Jean Romanet (G1) at 1 ¼ miles, and Mexican Gold, winner of the Prix de la Grotte (G3) at a mile.

Top and bottom, it looks like Final Gambit should take well to the Kentucky Derby distance, and there is enough dirt in his pedigree to think this Brad Cox trainee has a shot, especially with the right running style.

3. Baeza: 12-1 ML

Baeza needed the scratch of Rodriguez to get into the Kentucky Derby in the first place—some nervous moments his connections would not have had, except for the fact that the Santa Anita Derby (G1) was scratched down to five horses, and therefore he only got 37.5 points for finishing second in the race.

That Road to the Kentucky Derby points haul was lowered due to field size, but it definitely has no reflection on the quality of the performance, which was an excellent first effort against winners and a strong first step into a stakes race. Baeza broke his maiden from close to the pace, but even though he was stretching out to 1 ⅛ miles for the Santa Anita Derby, he was able to sit a little further off the pace, showing good adaptability. That matters not only because of the chaos of a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, but also because of Baeza’s wide gate.

In terms of pedigree, Baeza is easy to love. This John Shirreffs trainee is by McKinzie, a son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and himself a two-time Grade 1 winner at 1 ⅛ miles. He is out of the Big Brown mare Puca, an even bigger draw pedigree-wise. She produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. She also produced 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. She is fast establishing herself as a blue hen, and she has another talented foal in Baeza. Funny enough, Mage got his first graded-stakes win in the Kentucky Derby, and Baeza has a chance to do the same.

Learn about each horse, jockeys, trainers, and more at FanDuel Research.

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