Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Odds, Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under for July 4

Odds updated as of 3:11 p.m.

The MLB slate on Friday includes the New York Mets taking on the New York Yankees.

Before checking out the MLB betting lines on FanDuel Sportsbook, we've got you covered, in terms of the most important info regarding this game.

Mets vs Yankees Game Info

• New York Mets (50-38) vs. New York Yankees (48-39)
• Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citi Field -- Queens, New York
• Coverage: MLB Network, SNY, and YES

Mets vs Yankees Odds & Moneyline

• All MLB odds, betting lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: NYM: (-112) | NYY: (-104)
• Spread: NYM: +1.5 (-188) | NYY: -1.5 (+155)
• Total: 9.5 -- Over: (-106) | Under: (-114)

Mets vs Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers

Probable Pitchers: Justin Hagenman (Mets) - 0-0, 1.50 ERA vs Marcus Stroman (Yankees) - 1-1, 8.16 ERA

The Mets will give the nod to Justin Hagenman and the Yankees will counter with Marcus Stroman (1-1, 8.16 ERA). Hagenman did not pitch as the moneyline favorite in any games last season. The Yankees are 3-1-0 against the spread when Stroman starts. The Yankees have always been the moneyline underdog when Stroman starts this season.

Mets vs Yankees Prediction & Pick

All MLB win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Yankees win (57.9%)

Mets vs Yankees Moneyline

• The Mets vs Yankees moneyline has the Mets as a -112 favorite, while the Yankees are a -104 underdog on the road.

Mets vs Yankees Spread

• The Mets are hosting the Yankees and are 1.5 on the runline and -188 to cover, while New York is +155 to cover the spread.

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under

• Mets versus Yankees on July 4 has an over/under of 9.5 runs, with the odds on the over -106 and the under set at -114.

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Mets vs Yankees Betting Trends

• The Mets have won in 38, or 65.5%, of the 58 contests they have been named as odds-on favorites in this year.
• This year, the Mets have won 38 of 58 games when listed as at least -112 or better on the moneyline.
• The Mets and their opponents have hit the over in 36 of their 84 games with a total this season.
• The Mets are 42-42-0 against the spread in their 84 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
• The Yankees have been the moneyline underdog seven total times this season. They've finished 1-6 in those games.
• The Yankees have a record of 1-6 in games they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of -104 or longer (14.3%).
• The Yankees have played in 86 games with a set over/under, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total 34 times (34-48-4).
• The Yankees have gone 38-48-0 against the spread this season.

Mets Player Leaders

• Juan Soto leads New York with an OBP of .396 this season while batting .260 with 71 walks and 62 runs scored. He has a slugging percentage of .500.
• Among qualifying hitters in MLB, his batting average ranks 75th, his on-base percentage ranks fourth, and he is 22nd in slugging.
• Soto has hit safely in two straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .278 with three walks and two RBIs.
• Pete Alonso leads New York in slugging percentage (.532) and total hits (95) this season. He's batting .287 with an on-base percentage of .378.
• He is 27th in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging among qualified hitters.
• Francisco Lindor is batting .261 with a .455 slugging percentage and 46 RBI this year.
• Lindor heads into this game with two games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .250 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo has been key for New York with 80 hits, an OBP of .313 plus a slugging percentage of .463.
• Nimmo enters this game on a two-game hitting streak. During his last five outings he is batting .286 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.

Yankees Player Leaders

• Aaron Judge has put up a team-high OBP (.474) and slugging percentage (.734), while pacing the Yankees in hits (116, while batting .364).
• Including all qualifying hitters, he ranks first in batting average, while his on-base percentage is first and he is first in slugging.
• Judge heads into this game on a three-game hitting streak. During his last five outings he is hitting .571 with two doubles, three home runs, nine walks and seven RBIs.
• Cody Bellinger is hitting .269 with 15 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 28 walks. He's slugging .456 with an on-base percentage of .327.
• Including all qualified players, he is 58th in batting average, 80th in on-base percentage and 54th in slugging percentage.
• Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .286 with 18 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 27 walks.
• Trent Grisham has seven doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 39 walks while hitting .249.

Mets vs Yankees Head to Head

• 5/18/2025: 8-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -164, Underdog Moneyline: +138)
• 5/17/2025: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 10, Favorite Moneyline: -134, Underdog Moneyline: +114)
• 5/16/2025: 6-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/24/2024: 12-3 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -172, Underdog Moneyline: +144)
• 7/23/2024: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -156, Underdog Moneyline: +132)
• 6/26/2024: 12-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -126, Underdog Moneyline: +108)
• 6/25/2024: 9-7 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -144, Underdog Moneyline: +122)
• 7/26/2023: 3-1 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/25/2023: 9-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -116, Underdog Moneyline: -102)
• 6/14/2023: 4-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 7.5, Favorite Moneyline: -112, Underdog Moneyline: -104)

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