Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Odds, Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under for July 4

Odds updated as of 4:13 a.m.

The MLB's Friday schedule includes the New York Mets facing the New York Yankees.

Before you do any MLB betting on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here's what you need to know.

Mets vs Yankees Game Info

• New York Mets (50-38) vs. New York Yankees (48-39)
• Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citi Field -- Queens, New York
• Coverage: MLB Network, SNY, and YES

Mets vs Yankees Odds & Moneyline

• All MLB odds, betting lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: NYM: (-110) | NYY: (-106)
• Spread: NYM: +1.5 (-176) | NYY: -1.5 (+146)
• Total: 9 -- Over: (-122) | Under: (-100)

Mets vs Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers

Probable Pitchers: Justin Hagenman (Mets) - 0-0, 1.50 ERA vs Marcus Stroman (Yankees) - 1-1, 8.16 ERA

The Mets will give the ball to Justin Hagenman and the Yankees will turn to Marcus Stroman (1-1, 8.16 ERA). Hagenman did not appear in a game when his team was the moneyline favorite last season. The Yankees have gone 3-1-0 ATS in Stroman's four starts that had a set spread. The Yankees have not been the underdog on the moneyline when Stroman starts this season.

Mets vs Yankees Prediction & Pick

All MLB win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Mets win (52.7%)

Mets vs Yankees Moneyline

• The Mets vs Yankees moneyline has the Mets as a -110 favorite, while the Yankees are a -106 underdog on the road.

Mets vs Yankees Spread

• The Mets are hosting the Yankees and are 1.5 on the runline and -176 to cover, while New York is +146 to cover the spread.

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under

• The over/under for the Mets versus Yankees game on July 4 has been set at 9, with -122 odds on the over and -100 odds on the under.

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Mets vs Yankees Betting Trends

• The Mets have come away with 38 wins in the 58 contests they have been listed as the favorites in this season.
• This year, the Mets have won 38 of 58 games when listed as at least -110 or better on the moneyline.
• The Mets and their opponents have hit the over in 36 of their 84 games with a total this season.
• In 84 games with a line this season, the Mets have a mark of 42-42-0 against the spread.
• The Yankees have won one of the seven games they were the underdog on the moneyline this season (14.3%).
• The Yankees have a record of 1-6 when playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of -106 or longer (14.3%).
• The Yankees have combined with their opponents to go over the total 34 times this season for a 34-48-4 record against the over/under.
• The Yankees have put together a 38-48-0 record ATS this season (covering 44.2% of the time).

Mets Player Leaders

• Juan Soto leads New York in OBP (.396) this season, fueled by 80 hits. He has a .260 batting average and a slugging percentage of .500.
• Among all qualifying hitters in the majors, his batting average ranks 76th, his on-base percentage ranks fourth, and he is 23rd in slugging.
• Soto has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is batting .278 with three walks and two RBIs.
• Pete Alonso leads New York with 95 hits and a team-best slugging percentage of .532. He's batting .287 with an on-base percentage of .378.
• He is 27th in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging in the majors.
• Francisco Lindor has 90 hits this season and has a slash line of .261/.329/.455.
• Lindor heads into this game with two games in a row with at least one hit. In his last five games he is batting .250 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo is batting .254 with a .313 OBP and 48 RBI for New York this season.
• Nimmo heads into this game on a two-game hitting streak. During his last five outings he is hitting .286 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.

Yankees Player Leaders

• Aaron Judge has accumulated an on-base percentage of .474, a slugging percentage of .734, and has 116 hits, all club-highs for the Yankees (while batting .364).
• He is first in batting average, first in on-base percentage and first in slugging percentage among all qualifying hitters in the majors.
• Judge hopes to build on a three-game hitting streak in this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .571 with two doubles, three home runs, nine walks and seven RBIs.
• Cody Bellinger is batting .269 with 15 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 28 walks. He's slugging .456 with an on-base percentage of .327.
• His batting average is 59th among all qualified players, his on-base percentage is 81st, and he is 54th in slugging.
• Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .286 with 18 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 27 walks.
• Trent Grisham has seven doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 39 walks while hitting .249.

Mets vs Yankees Head to Head

• 5/18/2025: 8-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -164, Underdog Moneyline: +138)
• 5/17/2025: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 10, Favorite Moneyline: -134, Underdog Moneyline: +114)
• 5/16/2025: 6-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/24/2024: 12-3 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -172, Underdog Moneyline: +144)
• 7/23/2024: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -156, Underdog Moneyline: +132)
• 6/26/2024: 12-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -126, Underdog Moneyline: +108)
• 6/25/2024: 9-7 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -144, Underdog Moneyline: +122)
• 7/26/2023: 3-1 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/25/2023: 9-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -116, Underdog Moneyline: -102)
• 6/14/2023: 4-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 7.5, Favorite Moneyline: -112, Underdog Moneyline: -104)

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