3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Steelers at Bengals on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Steelers at Bengals Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Steelers -5.5 (-108)

A divisional matchup on a short week can often lead to a tight game, but the divide between the Steelers and Joe Burrow-less Bengals should be wide enough to push us in Pittsburgh's direction.

While the Steelers are by no means world-beaters at +3300 odds to win the Super Bowl, they're a solid 14th in our latest power rankings, per numberFire's metrics, which is sizable step up from the Bengals sitting 31st ahead of just the Tennessee Titans. That's right, Cincinnati is behind even the likes of the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns, which is saying something.

Taking things another step, nF's numbers place Pittsburgh 7th in schedule-adjusted defense and 12th in adjusted offense, whereas Cincinnati is 29th and 30th.

The Bengals' addition of Joe Flacco gave their offense a bump after he averaged 0.04 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) against a tough Green Bay Packers defense, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, which is a noticeable improvement over Jake Browning's dreadful -0.44 EPA/DB before the trade. However, Flacco is still playing in front of PFF's 30th-ranked offensive line, and that doesn't bode well for him against a Pittsburgh defense that's fifth in pressure rate (40.0%) and second in sack rate (9.1%).

numberFire's model projects the Steelers to win by 7.5 points, and our Jim Sannes' spread model forecasts a 6.7-point win, further pointing to value in a Pittsburgh cover.

Chase Brown Under 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

Chase Brown has been a big flop for the Bengals this season, averaging -0.23 expected points added per carry (EPA/C) and 2.7 yards per carry, which are the fifth- and second-worst marks among RBs with at least 50 rushes. He also owns the worst rushing success rate (27.0%) in that sample. His efficiency is unlikely to improve facing a Steelers team that's 10th in adjusted rush defense.

Brown's poor play has led to a dip in snaps over the past two weeks, resulting in a more even backfield split with teammate Samaje Perine. Over the first four weeks, Brown averaged a 68.4% snap rate, whereas he's now logged a 53.3% snap rate over the last two games. In Week 6, Brown narrowly edged out Perine in first half snap rate (54.5% vs. 45.5%) and actually saw a lower red zone snap rate (44.4% vs. 55.6%), again suggesting that this is turning into a committee backfield.

There's no question Perine has been the better rusher this year, too. While it's come over just 15 carries, the veteran back has averaged 0.01 EPA/C, 4.5 yards per carry, and a 66.7% rushing success rate. If anything, the numbers suggest Cincinnati should be turning to Perine more often. And while Brown has still shown a higher route rate (44.0% vs. 30.8%) over the last two games, Perine has a lengthy history of catching the ball out of the backfield, so it's not like they can't be used interchangeably as receivers, either.

Even if Brown continues to run more routes than Perine, it might not lead to much yardage through the air. Flacco recording 45 pass attempts in his Bengals debut, yet Brown saw just 2 targets (5.0% share), which was down from the 4.4 targets per game (14.3% share) he averaged across the first five weeks.

Since his dip in snaps, Brown has logged only 48 and 49 scrimmage yards, and even if we expand out to the full season, he's exceeded 65.5 total yards once in six games. There's simply a lot working against Brown hitting this over.

Jaylen Warren Any Time Touchdown (-140)

These might look like curiously short odds to score for a running back with a lone receiving touchdown and zero rushing TDs this season, but the combination of a meaty red zone role and a fantastic matchup makes this wager one to still strongly consider.

Across the four games Jaylen Warren has played, he's logged a 79.2% red zone snap rate, and when accounting for both carries and targets, he's recorded a massive 60.9% red zone opportunity share. In contrast to this, his main backfield competition, Kenneth Gainwell, has earned a 20.8% red zone snap rate and 9.7% red zone opportunity share when Warren's active.

Even after Gainwell had a big performance in Week 4 with Warren out, Jaylen was the only running back to earn red zone snaps last week following Pittsburgh's bye, and he saw half of the team's red zone opportunities.

For context, Warren's 60.9% red zone opportunity share is the highest in the entire NFL, even beating out the likes of every-down backs like Christian McCaffrey (57.4%) and Josh Jacobs (48.1%).

As for the matchup, the Bengals are 24th in schedule-adjusted rush defense and are tied for allowing the most touchdowns to RBs (10) this season. Six of those TDs have come on the ground and four have been through the air, giving Warren multiple ways to get there. On a deeper level, Cincinnati's defense has allowed the third-most EPA/C, the sixth-highest rushing success rate, and the fifth-most yards per route run to opposing running backs.

Any way you slice it, this is about as good a spot as it gets for Warren, particularly with a positive game script likely looming. Warren didn't find the end zone much when Najee Harris was around the past few years, but his 2025 usage gives him a clear path to getting touchdowns, and tonight's game maybe his best opportunity yet to add to his tally.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.