3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Commanders vs. Dolphins in Madrid

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Washington Commanders take on the Miami Dolphins in Madrid? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Commanders vs. Dolphins in Spain Betting Picks

Commanders Moneyline (+126)

Although the Commanders' defense stinks, I can't get behind the Dolphins being this heavily favored at a neutral site. The Commanders are values in my eyes.

Most of this comes down to the Commanders' offense. Even with Marcus Mariota as starter, they've been relatively efficient. Mariota has averaged 0.19 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back in games he has started. The league average there is closer to 0.10, and Tua Tagovailoa is at 0.08.

We can't expect that to keep up for Mariota, but it does show they've played well despite the injuries this year. Against a flawed Dolphins team, that's enough for me to take the plus money on the Commanders to win it.

Chris Rodriguez Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Last week was supposed to be a big one for Chris Rodriguez Jr. He was named a team captain and started but ultimately got hurt early.

After a full week of practice, Rodriguez is off the injury report and ready to play. I think we can buy into him again here.

Rodriguez earned that chance via some solid play in Week 9. He finally was healthy again, and he turned 12 carries into 65 yards. In the 4 games he has played at least 30% of the snaps, Rodriguez has gone over 37.5 yards 3 times.

If he gets that volume here, he should be in a good spot. The Dolphins have let up the fifth-highest explosive run rate to opposing running backs, after adjusting for schedule. Thus, Rodriguez stands out as someone who could shine in his new role.

Robbie Chosen Any Time Touchdown (+850)

The Commanders simply don't have any healthy receivers left. That could be enough to force Robbie Chosen into a sizable role.

Chosen has four targets in both games he has played with the Commanders, including last week. He did that on a limited snap count in part due to Treylon Burks' emergence. However, Burks is out this week due to a finger injury, further thinning the pass-catching corps.

Of those four targets for Chosen, three were more than 15 yards downfield. He brings a vertical element to this team that they don't get from Deebo Samuel or Zach Ertz. That should ensure him a respectable role.

Even though I have pretty modest expectations for Chosen, my any time touchdown model still puts his odds to score at +640. Thus, +850 is a good enough number to draw me in.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.