Golf

Valero Texas Open: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Valero Texas Open: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

This week's Valero Texas Open operates as the final tuneup before The Masters next week.

The field for the Valero is highlighted by four top-10 players in the OWGR and 11 of the top 25.

But without Scottie Scheffler in the field, the betting odds look a little more normal than they have of late, and so does the daily fantasy golf slate.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

TPC San Antonio (Oaks) Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

  • Par: 72
  • Distance: 7,438 yards (around 140 yards longer than the average par 72)
  • Average Fairway Width: 31.3 yards (33rd of 86 courses)
  • Average Green Size: 6,400 square feet (average-to-large)
  • Green Type: Poa overseed
  • Stimpmeter: N/A
  • Recent Winning Scores: -15, -13, -18, -20, -17
  • Recent Cut Lines: E, -1, +2, -1, +1

TPC San Antonio Course Key Stats

Often, analyzing a golf course starts with the question of distance versus accuracy. This week, it's really neither. While it is a longer par 72, TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course features the least penalizing rough among 88 Tour courses, via datagolf. So, the fairway width being a bit tighter than average doesn't matter a ton.

What you see, instead, is a massive emphasis (relative to usual) on strokes gained: around the green. My prior research has shown that around-the-green play is even more volatile than putting, so I never love to see that.

The bunkers, rather than the rough, are penalizing here, and there are a lot of them (64).

It follows that -- if driving isn't vital and you need to avoid bunkers -- that approach play wins out yet again as the most key of the key stats.

Best Golfers at TPC San Antonio

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
Course SG:T/Rd
Course SG:T
Starts
Wins
Top-10s
Top 25s
Missed Cuts
Corey Conners$11,1002.3346.5752230
Matt Kuchar$8,6001.9839.5750340
Charley Hoffman$8,3001.8733.6850231
Lucas Glover$9,1001.7527.9440130
Kevin Streelman$7,2001.7527.9340230
Jordan Spieth$11,6002.1625.9131110
Brandt Snedeker$7,0002.0024.0130130
View Full Table

Valero Texas Open Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
Win%
Top-10%
Top-20%
Made Cut%
Rory McIlroy$12,1005.5%29.8%45.7%77.9%
Ludvig Aberg$11,9004.3%26.1%41.0%74.8%
Jordan Spieth$11,6003.8%24.3%39.1%74.0%
Max Homa$11,3003.1%21.1%35.4%72.0%
Collin Morikawa$10,9003.0%21.5%35.7%71.9%
Hideki Matsuyama$11,4002.7%19.8%33.5%70.2%
Matt Fitzpatrick$10,8002.6%20.0%34.0%70.5%
View Full Table

Valero Texas Open Betting Picks to Target

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Collin Morikawa

To Win (+3000)
To Finish Top 10 (+300)

To be honest, outright value is hard to find this week according to my model, but +3000 odds for Morikawa deserve a look.

Morikawa has top-8 irons and top-25 wedges right now. His putting numbers rank him 63rd, but he's in the 47th percentile this year in putting from within 15 feet

If he can be a roughly average putter and won't be penalized with his distance this week, then that tracks for this week at TPC San Antonio, where Morikawa has not yet played.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

To Win (+5500)
To Finish Top 10 (+450)
To Finish Top 20 (+210)

Bezuidenhout is a name I've tracked for a while now, and I'm going back again.

Over the last 50 rounds, Bezuidenhout leads the field in strokes gained: approach, via datagolf, and he's fifth in strokes gained: putting. Those putting splits are supported by 87th-percentile splits from within 15 feet this season, as well.

Bezuidenhout's irons and putting have led to upside weeks, including a T13 at THE PLAYERS and a T9 at the Valspar most recently.

Mark Hubbard

To Win (+12000)
To Finish Top 10 (+850)
To Finish Top 20 (+360)

Hubbard sets up well at a course like this one where strokes gained: off the tee can be downplayed.

Hubbard, over the last 50 rounds, ranks 13th in strokes gained: approach among this field. His other stats are lagging, including putting (74th). However, he does rank as a 73rd-percentile putter from within 15 feet this year.

He has made nine straight cuts with two top-20s in that span. The ceiling hasn't quite been there, but the prices are solid for his finishing potential -- particularly the top 20.

A partial-unit play on him at +12000 is also appealing at an event that is pretty wide open.

Nico Echavarria

Top South American (+280)

Echavarria (+280) is up against Alejandro Tosti (+200), Jhonattan Vegas (+220), and Camilo Villegas (+360) in this market for top South American.

Over the last 50 rounds, Echavarria (-0.21) leads the group in strokes gained average over Vegas (-0.25), Tosti (-0.28), and Villegas (-0.53).

Over the last three months, though, Echavarria (+0.19) is trending up and separating over Vegas (+0.02), Tosti (-0.48), and Villegas (-1.51).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.