Spurs vs. Timberwolves Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 4

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game Info

• Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Frost Bank Center -- San Antonio, Texas
• Coverage: Peacock

The Minnesota Timberwolves are big 14.5-point underdogs heading into Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center on Monday, tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Peacock. The point total is set at 216.5 for the matchup.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Spurs win (70.4%)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends

• The Spurs have compiled a 43-34-4 record against the spread this season.
• Against the spread, the Timberwolves are 38-44-0 this year.
• This season, 36 of the Spurs' games have gone over the point total.
• Timberwolves games this year have hit the over 37 times in 82 opportunities (45.1%).
• San Antonio has done a better job covering the spread in road games (24-17-1) than it has in home games (19-17-3).
• When playing at home, the Spurs go over the over/under 45% of the time (18 of 40 games). They've hit the over in 42.9% of games on the road (18 of 42 contests).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, Minnesota has a lower winning percentage at home (.439, 18-23-0 record) than on the road (.488, 20-21-0).
• Timberwolves games have gone above the over/under less frequently at home (14 times out of 41) than away (23 of 41) this season.

Spurs Leaders

• Victor Wembanyama is averaging 25 points, 3.1 assists and 11.5 rebounds.
• De'Aaron Fox's numbers on the season are 18.6 points, 3.8 boards and 6.2 assists per game, shooting 48.6% from the field and 33.2% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.8 made 3-pointers.
• Stephon Castle averages 16.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 7.4 assists, shooting 47.1% from the field and 33.2% from beyond the arc, with 1.2 made treys per game.
• Keldon Johnson is averaging 13.2 points, 1.4 assists and 5.4 boards.
• Julian Champagnie's numbers on the season are 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, shooting 43.7% from the field and 38.1% from beyond the arc, with an average of 2.4 made 3-pointers.

Timberwolves Leaders

• Julius Randle's numbers on the season are 21.1 points, 6.7 boards and 5 assists per game. He is also draining 48.1% of his shots from the field and 31.5% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.4 triples.
• Rudy Gobert's numbers on the season are 10.9 points, 11.5 boards and 1.7 assists per contest. He is draining 68.2% of his shots from the field (first in NBA).
• Per game, Naz Reid gives the Timberwolves 13.6 points, 6.2 boards and 2.2 assists, plus 1 steal and 1 block.
• Jaden McDaniels' numbers on the season are 14.8 points, 4.2 boards and 2.7 assists per contest. He is making 51.5% of his shots from the field and 41.2% from 3-point range, with an average of 1.4 triples.
• Ayo Dosunmu averages 14.8 points, 3.4 boards and 3.6 assists. He is sinking 51.7% of his shots from the field and 43.9% from beyond the arc (sixth in league), with 1.8 triples per game.

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