Golf

Sanderson Farms Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Sanderson Farms Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

The PGA Tour is back in action this week for the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Country Club of Jackson Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

  • Par: 72
  • Distance: 7,461 (around 80 yards longer than the average par 72)
  • Average Fairway Width: 29.1 yards (14th of 86 courses)
  • Average Green Size: 6,200 square feet (average)
  • Green Type: Bermuda
  • Stimpmeter: N/A
  • Recent Winning Scores: -17, -22, -19, -18, -21
  • Recent Cut Lines: -2, -5, -3, -3, -1

Country Club of Jackson Course Key Stats

Stats are listed in order of importance.

Best Golfers at Country Club of Jackson

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Sanderson Farms 2022
Sanderson Farms 2021
Sanderson Farms 2020
Sanderson Farms 2019
Sanderson Farms 2018
Course SG:T
Course SG:T/Rd
Cameron Champ$9,100+9000---28121.362.67
Henrik Norlander$7,900+250002444MC-20.751.48
Scott Stallings$8,600+1200013MC6283920.451.14
Charley Hoffman$8,000+20000-39623-16.861.41
C.T. Pan$8,700+12000671112--16.621.38
Kevin Streelman$9,900+75002431-4MC16.311.17
Stephan Jaeger$11,900+16003026-MC1416.091.15
View Full Table

Sanderson Farms Championship Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
Win%
Top-10%
Top-20%
Made Cut%
Ludvig Aberg$12,2008.52%38.07%54.49%84.54%
Stephan Jaeger$11,9004.72%29.80%47.41%84.79%
Eric Cole$12,0003.77%27.51%41.11%84.03%
Beau Hossler$10,8003.13%22.37%37.70%78.51%
Emiliano Grillo$11,6002.90%22.96%35.76%79.74%
Keith Mitchell$11,7002.69%22.22%36.74%80.06%
Lucas Herbert$11,4002.49%18.13%33.09%74.18%
View Full Table

Ludvig Aberg might be that guy. He showed up at the Ryder Cup in his debut (he has yet to play in a major), and he's now the favorite at the Sanderson Farms Championship -- for good reason. It's a good number at +1100. On the DP World Tour, Aberg has finished T4, win, and T10 in three starts while proving that he's a dominant ball-striker. He also has the distance to pick up a lot of strokes off the tee this week.

Beau Hossler (+3000) is also interesting. He actually has plus distance to go along with a great short game.

Nicholas Lindheim (+5000) had a pretty strong Korn Ferry Tour season and won The Ascendant. He's old for this level of recent PGA Tour experience, but the data makes him interesting this week.

Akshay Bhatia (+7000) and Alex Noren (+7000) are also worth a closer look at those odds (but have high DFS salaries respectively).

Sanderson Farms Championship Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Sanderson Farms Championship DFS Studs

Ludvig Aberg ($12,200 | +1100)

I already laid out the case for Aberg in the simulation section, so I'll touch on some more things here. He will have to overcome a lack of course experience virtually everywhere he tees it up for the next year. However, that hasn't stopped other phenoms from finding early success.

It also hasn't stopped Aberg on the PGA Tour. He has been T25 at the RBC Canadian Open, T24 at the Travelers Championship, T4 at the John Deere Classic, and T14 at the Wyndham Championship this summer.

Aberg's skillset is that of a long-hitting ball-striker, and that translates, especially at a par 72 setup like this one. He's fourth in driving distance in the field, and the short-game stats are solid, too.

Beau Hossler ($10,800 | +3000)

Hossler's irons are his main issue (77th in this field), yet he's top-25 in the three other strokes gained stats and has plus distance on the world-average golfer. Hossler has two starts at this course and made the cut both times. He was T10 in 2017 (so the 2018 season; gotta love the fall swing) and T57 in 2020 while having a horrible putting week.

Hossler is a great putter and seems to be on the upswing: he has four top-30s in five starts.

Others to Consider:

  • Stephan Jaeger ($11,900 | +1600)
  • Emiliano Grillo ($11,600 | +2500)
  • Doug Ghim ($10,100 | +5000)

Sanderson Farms Championship DFS Mid-Range Plays

Lee Hodges ($9,900 | +4000)

Hodges stands out among this tier (with Nicholas Lindheim) in win odds, per my simulation model, so I'm good targeting them at these salaries.

Hodges ranks 14th in this field in strokes gained: tee to green and 10th in strokes gained: ball-striking. He's also top-50 in both distance and accuracy with the driver, making him one of just nine golfers in the field who can say that.

Hodges won the 3M Open in late July and has made both cuts at this course (T45 in 2021 and T30 in 2022).

Nicholas Lindheim ($9,400 | +5000)

Nearly 39 years old, Lindheim is surging right now, but it's been a fairly extended trend, which is what you want to see for an older golfer. Small-sample blips among older golfers are more of what we should avoid.

Since March, Lindheim has finished top-10 in four of eight Korn Ferry Tour events, including a win. He also finished T27 at the Wyndham Championship while ranking fourth in strokes gained: approach.

Lindehim finished the most recent KFT season hitting 75.9% of greens in regulation, which would've ranked him sixth on the full season if he qualified.

Others to Consider:

  • Dylan Wu ($9,600 | +6000)
  • Brandon Wu ($9,200 | +8000)
  • Nate Lashley ($9,200 | +9000)

Sanderson Farms Championship DFS Value Plays

MJ Daffue ($8,900 | +7000)

The field drops off pretty quickly, which is why focusing on more of the top-end guys makes sense because we're embracing volatility for most of the field anyway. Daffue fits that. He cooled off at the end of the PGA Tour season and really struggled with his irons, but he's long off the tee (10th) and a great putter (19th).

Daffue has finished T12 and T61 at this event in two starts while losing strokes from putting in each of those starts, so a bounce-back could easily be in order in a weaker field than what he faced to end the last season.

Matthew NeSmith ($8,500 | +12000)

NeSmith made sense in much tougher fields than this at various points in the past. He's ranked 18th in the field in strokes gained: approach over the past 50 rounds but outside the top 75 in both short-game stats. Ultimately, though, he's a top-15 ball-striker at an event where that really helps.

NeSmith is two for four in making cuts here. In his two misses, he was absolutely dreadful on the greens. His two made cuts led to T17 and T9 finishes.

Others to Consider:

  • Chad Ramey ($8,700 | +7000)
  • Andrew Novak ($8,600 | +11000)
  • Carson Young ($8,400 | +11000)

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.