PGA Championship First Round Leader: 5 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

First Round Leader Picks at a Glance

• Cameron Young (+2500)
• Xander Schauffele (+2700)
• Ludvig Åberg (+3000)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+4000)
• Nicolai Højgaard (+4500)

The 2026 PGA Championship tees it up at Aronimink Golf Club this week, with the first round starting on Thursday morning.

Which golfers stand out as good bets in the PGA Championship First Round Leader market at FanDuel Sportsbook?

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

First Round Leader Picks, Best Bets for the PGA Championship

Cameron Young (+2500)

Young is on fire, and the case for backing him to lead after 18 holes centers on his blazing-hot form. Over his last seven starts, he has six top-10 finishes, two wins, and a T3 at the Masters. In that stretch, he paces the entire field in total strokes gained tee-to-green. Where this gets interesting for this week is that his breakthrough PGA Tour win came at Sedgefield Country Club, another Donald Ross design, signaling a comfort level with this style of course. If you put a lot of weight into form when betting the FRL market, Young is right up your alley.

Xander Schauffele (+2700)

Schauffele is in one of the marquee morning groupings alongside Brooks Koepka and Tyrrell Hatton, and while Hatton and Koepka draw plenty of attention, the X-Factor for FRL purposes is Schauffele's relentless consistency in major championships. He is a two-time major winner who has been in the top 10 in scoring average in this field across the season, ranks among the best approach players in the world, and has made 23 of 24 major championship cuts in his career.

Ludvig Åberg (+3000)

Åberg is in the morning wave alongside Bryson DeChambeau and Rickie Fowler, and that tee time matters as much as anything else in this pick. Morning conditions at Aronimink on Thursday are expected to be calm and cool, with calmer winds and softer greens that reward the kind of precision approach play Åberg has in his bag. He has posted top-8 finishes in five of his last six starts, ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained tee-to-green, and gains strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the greens, too — a combination that makes him a dangerous player every time out.

Tommy Fleetwood (+4000)

If course history is your thing, Fleetwood is your guy. He has shot 62 at Aronimink. Twice. The Englishman owns a share of the course record, posting 62 twice at the 2018 BMW Championship. He arrives off a T5 at last week's Truist Championship, his fifth top-10 of 2026, with his iron play clicking and confidence sky high. All that's missing from Fleetwood's resume is a major win, and this might be the week for him to get it. But as far as this market goes, he's shown he can go very low here, and that's appealing.

Nicolai Højgaard (+4500)

Højgaard tees off in one of the first groups of the morning at 7:07 AM ET, so he should get to play most of his round on a soft course. Factor in that he arrives fresh off a T2 at the Truist Championship last week and T23 in Miami, and Højgaard checks some boxes. The 25-year-old missed the cut at the Masters, but his +4500 odds — same as Brooks Koepka and Patrick Cantlay — tell you that the FRL market has a good amount of respect for him.

Check out our PGA Championship best bets.

Golf Betting FAQ

What does it mean to bet on a golfer to win outright?

An outright winner bet — sometimes called a "to win" bet — is a wager on a specific golfer to finish first in the tournament. Because golf fields typically range from 70 to 156 players, winning outright is difficult, which is why odds for most players are expressed as large positive numbers (e.g., +1200 or +5000). A $100 wager on a +1200 golfer would return $1,200 in profit if that player wins.

What is a Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 finish bet?

Finish position bets let you wager on a golfer to finish within a specified range on the final leaderboard, regardless of whether they win. A Top 10 bet pays out if the player finishes anywhere from first through 10th place. Odds are naturally shorter than outright markets to reflect the higher likelihood of success — a player might be +1200 to win but only +200 to finish Top 10.

How does a make/miss the cut bet work?

Most professional golf tournaments feature a 36-hole cut, trimming the field halfway through the tourney; the exact number of golfers who make the cut varies by event. A make/miss the cut bet is a simple two-way wager on whether a specific golfer will survive that cut and play the weekend.

What is a head-to-head matchup bet in golf?

A head-to-head matchup bet pairs two golfers against each other for the full tournament or for a single round, with the bet paying out based on which player finishes higher on the leaderboard.

What is a first-round leader bet?

A first-round leader bet is a wager on which golfer will post the lowest score in the first round (usually on Thursday). First-round leader bets tend to carry large odds given the size of the field and the variance of one-day results.

How do strokes gained statistics help with golf betting?

Strokes gained (SG) is the foundational analytical framework for modern golf handicapping. Rather than measuring raw statistics like fairways hit or greens in regulation, strokes gained measures how much better or worse a player performs relative to the field average on each shot. The four key categories are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG:OTT), Approach (SG:APP), Around the Green (SG:ARG), and Putting (SG:PUTT).

Why does course fit matter in golf betting?

Unlike team sports with a consistent playing environment, every golf course demands a different skill set. If an event is being held at a courses previously visited by the PGA Tour, that allow bettors to examine historical performance data — which players have gained strokes and contended at that venue in the past. Some golfers tend to perform better -- or struggle -- at certain course types.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.