NRFI Best Bets Today: 3 MLB NRFI Picks for Monday 5/4/26

Today's Top NRFI Picks at a Glance

• Tigers vs. Red Sox NRFI
• Yankees vs. Orioles NRFI
• Phillies vs. Marlins NRFI

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning 0.5 Runs under the Innings tab for each MLB game.

Please note: lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

What are the top home run picks for today?

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

NRFI Pick — Tigers vs. Red Sox

Tarik Skubal vs. Payton Tolle (7:05 PM ET)

• Tarik Skubal's 2026 first-inning profile is the most reliable in the American League. His 2.70 ERA and 45:6 K:BB ratio are built on elite early-inning command, with his velocity at its absolute peak in the first frame before any fatigue reduction and his changeup-fastball combination generating its highest misses against cold hitters seeing him for the first time in the game.
• Skubal struck out a season-high 10 batters against this Boston Red Sox offense on April 18, demonstrating that his first-inning dominance is specifically pronounced against the Red Sox. Boston has struck out 269 times this season and is batting just .235 as a team — a lineup that generates weak contact and swings and misses rather than first-inning extra-base damage against elite arms.
• Payton Tolle is making his third start of the season for Boston, entering with a 0-1 record and a 3.38 ERA. His season debut was exceptional — one run in six innings with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees — but in his second start against Toronto he gave up three runs in 4.2 innings with four walks and his velocity dropped late in the outing. The roller-coaster is somewhat common for young arms.
• Tolle's matchup against the Detroit Tigers is a tough one, but with a 29.3% K rate over 27 career innings, Tolle should be up for the challenge in the opening frame.
• Comerica Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the AL. The deep outfield and foul territory suppress first-inning extra-base hits, and both pitchers' strongest work is in the opening frame before pitch counts and fatigue become factors.

NRFI Pick — Yankees vs. Orioles

Cam Schlittler vs. Shane Baz (7:40 PM ET)

• Cam Schlittler has a sparkling 2.32 SIERA and 31.4% K rate through seven appearances in 2026 — establishing him as one of the most dominant pitchers in the AL right now. His top-of-zone four-seam fastball is at its highest velocity in the first inning, and Baltimore Orioles hitters without prior game-day at-bat experience face his full arsenal at maximum effectiveness.
• Shane Baz opposes Schlittler, and Baz is coming off a god 2025 season in which he recorded a 3.95 SIERA.
• Baz was really good last time out, giving up only one run in 5.2 IP versus Houston.
• The Yankees' lineup might be weaker than usual today if Ben Rice is out injured.
• Baz versus NYY is the lesser side of the two, but there's reason to believe he can execute a clean first, especially if the Yanks' offense is short-handed.

NRFI Pick — Phillies at Marlins

Aaron Nola vs. Janson Junk (6:40 PM ET)

• Aaron Nola is carrying a 6.03 ERA into Monday — 99th among 108 qualified pitchers — after allowing 11 runs over nine innings across his last two outings. The Philadelphia Phillies gave him additional days of rest with a focused objective of resetting his first-pitch strike rate. Importantly, Nola's struggles have been concentrated in the third through fifth innings when his command deteriorates under pitch count pressure and hitters see him multiple times through the lineup. His first-inning ERA in 2026 is considerably better than his full-game figure.
• The extra rest was deliberately used for Nola to work on first-pitch strikes — throwing first-pitch strikes to 17 of 25 batters in his Braves start but only 10 of 22 against the Cubs. His interim manager noted eight days is meaningful preparation time for a pitcher focused on early-count efficiency. A pitcher entering a start with a specific mechanical focus on first-pitch strike-throwing is most likely to execute in the one inning where he is most fresh and most focused.
• Janson Junk opposes Nola for the Miami Marlins at 3.5 Ks per game in 6 appearances in 2026, with a 2-2 record and 3.00 ERA. Junk's first-inning ERA is consistently better than his full-game clip — a control-first pitcher whose first-inning efficiency is driven by location rather than stuff, and whose approach against the Philadelphia Phillies' right-handed-heavy lineup generates quick outs in the opening frame.
• Nola's recent woes and the Phils' early-order power are scary, but it also gives us a chance to get this NRFI at close to even money.

NRFI Betting — Frequently Asked Questions

What does NRFI mean in baseball betting? NRFI stands for No Run First Inning. It's a baseball bet where you wager that neither team will score in the first inning. The opposite bet — at least one run scored in the first inning — is called YRFI (Yes Run First Inning).

How does a NRFI bet work? A NRFI bet is settled when the first inning is completed. If both teams fail to score, your bet wins. If either team scores one or more runs, the bet loses. The final game score has no bearing on the outcome.

What is the difference between NRFI and YRFI? NRFI bets that no runs will score in the first inning, while YRFI bets that at least one run will.

What stats should I look at for NRFI bets? The most important factors are usually each starting pitcher's first-inning ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate (K%). You should also look at each team's first-inning batting average and on-base percentage as well as individual player stats for the first few batters in the lineup for each team.

Can I parlay NRFI bets? Yes, FanDuel lets you parlay NRFIs across multiple games on the same slate.

Where can you find NRFI betting lines on FanDuel? You can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning 0.5 Runs under the Innings tab for each MLB game.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.