Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 5/4/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jazz Chisholm
• Michael Busch
• Kyle Tucker

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Orioles at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

The New York Yankees are at home against righty Shane Baz, and while Baz is a solid pitcher, I like this spot for Jazz Chisholm.

After a quality 2025 campaign (3.95 SIERA), Baz hasn't been that good so far in 2026, pitching to a 4.25 SIERA and 19.3% K rate. He's allowed 1.30 homers per nine innings since the start of last season, and in his two starts versus the Yankees in that span, he's been hammered to the tune of 11 earned runs and six jacks in 6.1 innings.

Chisholm is off to a slow start, but he's picking it up of late, producing three long balls and a .395 wOBA across his last 43 plate appearances.

Jazz killed it in this split a year ago, generating a .387 wOBA at home against RHPs.

Once Baz is out of the game, Chisholm will take on a Baltimore Orioles bullpen that has given up the sixth-most homers per nine (1.25).

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Reds at Cubs, 7:41 p.m. ET

The wind is blowing out at 16 MPH at Wrigley, so we could see some fireworks.

Rookie RHP Chase Petty is taking the ball for the Cincinnati Reds. Petty has just 6.0 MLB innings under his belt, and he's permitted three tanks in that small sample. He allowed 1.36 homers per nine in Triple A last year with a meh 19.6% K rate.

Michael Busch can take advantage. Busch had a huge 2025 due in large part to his work versus right-handers, a split in which he hit 30 of his 34 bombs and racked up a .385 wOBA with a 42.5% fly-ball rate.

It doesn't hurt that the Reds' bullpen has the second-worst reliever xFIP.

In a good matchup and on a day when the wind is howling out, Busch is my favorite HR pick on Monday.

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Dodgers at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Kyle Tucker is starting to break out after a rough start to his Los Angeles Dodgers tenure, piecing together a .351 expected wOBA over his past 35 plate appearances.

The power just hasn't been there so far for Tucker as he's got only three dingers. But given his 43.0% fly-ball rate and stellar track record, the home runs are coming.

Tonight, Tucker is back in a familiar place in Houston -- a venue where he posted a gaudy .476 wOBA in 2024 -- and he'll be up against what is likely to be a bullpen day for the Houston Astros' pitching staff. That makes it tough to predict hitter-pitcher matchups, but it looks like righty Ryan Weiss might cover multiple innings for Houston and he has been tagged for 2.49 homers per nine so far this year.

All in all, Houston's bullpen has the worst reliever xFIP in baseball, so Tucker should be in for a few friendly matchups in a park he's super familiar with.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.