NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 10/21/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

Goalie to Target

Alexander Georgiev, Colorado Avalanche ($8,500)

The Carolina Hurricanes are nearly an ideal matchup for a goaltender in DFS right now, so we'll happily take the sport's best on the young season against them.

Carolina has posted the most Corsi For per 60 minutes (73.8) in the NHL so far, but they're just 16th in expected goals per 60 (3.25) because the chances haven't been very dangerous to this point. We'll take empty, easy saves where we can get them.

The Colorado Avalanche are -152 favorites to win tonight, per the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and that's got Alexandar Georgiev ($8,500) in a great position for a win bonus to start. He'll only help his own cause if his level of play continues tonight.

Georgiev leads the league in goals saved above expectation (7.50 GSAx) to this point, and this is following a season where he tied the NHL lead for overall wins (40).

Other than Carolina's standing as a preseason contender, every other arrow is pointed the way of the Avs' netminder tonight.

Stacks

Edmonton Oilers

If Connor Hellebuyck's early-season woes don't turn around tonight, this could be a coming-out party for the Edmonton Oilers' scuffling offense.

Hellebuyck was fourth in the NHL last season in GSAx (33.62), but he's dead last this season through three starts (-4.25 GSAx) while struggling to a putrid .847 save rate. Sometimes in small samples, goalies can struggle with GSAx due to the quality of their defense, but the Winnipeg Jets are conceding the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.28). It's "poor" that Hellebuyck is turning for the worse.

Edmonton was 4th in expected goals per 60 minutes last season (3.58) behind two of the sport's brightest stars, but they've limped to just the 14th-best mark (3.31) early in the season. A lot of that has to do with the prolific Connor McDavid ($10,200), who has just 12 shots and 2 goals to begin the year. That's not bad for most, but he averaged 0.78 goals per game last year.

In an attempt to jumpstart this offense, McDavid and Leon Draisaitl ($9,700) are now lined together at even strength and on the power play. This is a premium stack with no corollary pieces behind them except top blue-liner Evan Bouchard ($6,600).

We've got plenty of value plays on a loaded slate, so I want to prioritize this duo -- which might not be as popular as usual -- in tournaments.

Colorado Avalanche

One of my favorite betting picks today was the Avs' puckline, and they'll need at least two goals to cover it. That might be on the low end of expectations here.

Colorado's elite offense that won the title two seasons ago has returned. They're third in expected goals per 60 this season (3.86), and as usual, it's concentrated toward their All-Stars at the top. Nathan MacKinnon ($10,400) has four points in four games, and the craziest part was that in his lone game without a shot, he still crushed on FanDuel by taking 14 (!) shots.

MacKinnon plays with Mikko Rantanen ($9,800) and Cale Makar ($7,600) across even strength and with a man advantage, and I wouldn't discount his even-strength correlation with his former teammate with the Halifax Mooseheads, Jonathan Drouin ($4,200). Drouin's TOI (14:31 last game) is steadily climbing as he's the third with MacKinnon and Rantanen.

Carolina's biggest issue this season has been in goal. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta have been bottom-six goaltenders by GSAx, and Andersen is now dealing with an upper-body issue.

This is not the matchup to have to deal with goaltending issues; we'll take advantage with the Avs.

Philadelphia Flyers

The Oilers and Avalanche are high-salaried stacks, so we'll need quite a bit of value to fit them in. Even in a brutal matchup, I was shocked how low-salaried the top options for the Philadelphia Flyers are tonight.

Philadelphia has played incredibly well offensively this year, scoring the fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.66) so far. An unstoppable force will meet an immovable object tonight; the opposing Dallas Stars are allowing the third-fewest expected goals per 60 (2.53) to this point, and their netminder, Jake Oettinger, has posted 3.25 GSAx (seventh-best in the NHL).

The Broad Street Bullies' salaries take care of any matchup concerns, though. All of Sean Couturier ($4,900), Travis Sanheim ($4,700), and Cam Atkinson ($4,600) play across Philadelphia's top lines at even strength and on the power play, and all three are averaging at least 17:00 TOI per game.

It's not like I'm ecstatic about their own potential tonight, but this top-line stack fits alongside Colorado or Edmonton; that's their true value with an opportunity to put up points themselves.

Value Skaters

Evan Rodrigues, W, Florida Panthers ($5,700)

The Florida Panthers should be another popular, high-salaried stack on this slate.

The reigning Eastern Conference champs are sixth in expected goals per 60 minutes themselves (3.65), and they've got an elite matchup with the Vancouver Canucks. Vancouver has ceded the most expected goals per 60 in the NHL (4.31), but they've survived behind a hot goalie. Thatcher Demko is fifth in the NHL in GSAx (3.99), but his 2022-23 performance (-1.49 GSAx) doesn't provide the utmost hope it stays forever.

Demko's hot streak has Florida behind Edmonton and Colorado on the priority list for yours truly, but Evan Rodrigues ($5,700) works with just about any build. The veteran posted 39 points with Colorado last season, and he's already got 5 to begin the season on Florida's top line and power-play unit.

Any other piece of this top line will require at least $6,500 in salary; Rodrigues is an ideal one-off.

Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets ($4,000)

The Columbus Blue Jackets are a bit of a surprise to be 2-2, and I'm looking at their top defenseman for some salary relief here.

Zach Werenski ($4,000) just came off IR from a quad issue, and this is after Werenski missed most of last year with a torn labrum. Both of those injuries have suppressed his salary entering tonight's game. He's still the Blue Jackets' top defenseman at even strength and on the power play, which is a role that merited him 48 points and 25:39 TOI in his last full season.

As a punt-level one-off, he makes a ton of sense with such an elite role. He'll likely be among the $6,000-range defensemen if he's able to maintain his health as the season progresses. numberFire's model has Werenski projected for a modest 7.1 FanDuel points in his return.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.