NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 10/21/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 30 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning ML (+118)

The market has kept the Tampa Bay Lightning downgraded as they continue to operate with Andrei Vasilevskiy (knee), but I don't think it's far-fetched to still give them the advantage in net tonight.

Jonas Johansson has been around the league average; he's 26th of 49 qualifying goaltenders in goals saved above expectation (0.56 GSAx) to begin the young season. This is a continuation of last year when he posted a decent 3.32 GSAx with the Colorado Avalanche.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs have struggled badly in goal behind Ilya Samsonov. Samsonov is fifth from the bottom in GSAx (-2.24) this season among qualifiers, and he's surrendered four-plus goals in two of his three starts.

There are talented skaters on both sides; both of these clubs were top-15 in the NHL in expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) a season ago. At home (and having been there since Thursday), I like the better goaltender at plus money.

numberFire's model concurs, expecting Tampa to win this one 57.4% of the time as an underdog.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild

Johnny Gaudreau 3+ Shots (-110)
Johnny Gaudreau Anytime Goal (+280)

My interest was piqued by these lines as we continue to follow the overperforming Columbus Blue Jackets' quest to prove the doubters wrong.

Last year, Minnesota was 17th in Corsi Against per 60 minutes (57.6), and this year, they sit 18th (58.3). This is not a particularly difficult matchup for shots, so it makes sense that John Gaudreau has a pick 'em line to match his season average for shots in game (3.0).

I still believe that shot volume will increase over time. Gaudreau averaged 2.8 shots per game last season navigating several blowouts, but his role is clear as day atop Columbus' top even-strength and power-play line. His 19:25 TOI per game last year is already up to 19:57 this season due to more competitive affairs.

Of course, the opposing Minnesota Wild are still struggling in goal, so the odds that "Johnny Hockey" can cash one of his shots increase dramatically in Minneapolis tonight. When looking at GSAx, both of the Wild's goaltenders rank in the bottom 20 to begin the season.

Minnesota is a -245 favorite in this one, but Columbus has already pulled two outright upsets as an underdog this season. This volatile goalie situation provides hope for a third.

Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche

Avalanche -1.5 (+158)

Like Toronto, the Carolina Hurricanes are a Stanley Cup favorite from the preseason to not have quite yet delivered this season, and it's also due to their goaltending situation.

Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta are both bottom-six netminders in GSAx to begin the season, and Andersen -- the better of the two -- is nicked up with an upper-body issue and missed Thursday's game. They're in the lion's den tonight to deal with these issues.

The 2021-22 champion Colorado Avalanche had a down 2022-23 season, but they've responded in a big way to begin 2023-24. Colorado has posted the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes this season (3.86), propelling them to the third-best xGF% (57.4%) so far.

Colorado also has a huge advantage in goal here; Alexandar Georgiev led the NHL in wins last season (40), and he's cementing himself into the Vezina Trophy conversation by leading the league in GSAx (7.50) so far.

The Hurricanes' institutional excellence has this betting line decently close, but these two teams are marching to totally different beats at present. I like the Avs by multiple scores tonight.

Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (-105)

We've covered goaltending issues in depth, but none are of bigger concern in the NHL than the Winnipeg Jets have with Connor Hellebuyck.

Hellebuyck carried Winnipeg into the playoffs last year behind 33.62 GSAx (fourth-best in hockey), but we've seen the Mr. Hyde to his Dr. Jekyll this season. Hellebuyck currently sits last in GSAx among qualifiers (-4.25) in three starts so far.

Especially in small samples, this can be due to an elite defense rendered a low expected-goal total, but that's not really the case here. The Jets are ceding the 13th-most expected goals per 60 (3.28) to this point, and their netminder has made matters worse.

Enter the best player in the world, Connor McDavid. McDavid has maintained an absurd on-ice presence this season with 12 total shots in four games and a TOI average of 20:25, but he's "stumbled" out of the gate with just a pair of goals.

Of course, McDavid scored 0.78 goals per game last year, so I'm judging him by his own unfair standard. I believe Hellebuyck's name value has this line below the normal odds for a McDavid anytime score, but he's not playing at an elite level right now. Near-even money is a fair proposition.

Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings

Bruins ML (-110)

I might be falling right into the trap, but it's hard to not back the Boston Bruins tonight.

Last year's record-breakers are back at it again, leading the league in xGF% (59.8%) to begin the year. That's well ahead of the Los Angeles Kings (53.8%) despite L.A.'s 2-1-1 record.

The Kings found themselves in a shootout in Minnesota on Thursday, and that's likely going to keep happening if Cam Talbot's recent form continues. The Ottawa Senators jettisoned Talbot after a pedestrian 0.30 GSAx a year ago, and Talbot is right in the middle of the pack this season (1.01 GSAx).

Meanwhile, the reigning Vezina winner for Boston, Linus Ullmark, is off to a strong start again 1.81 GSAx, cracking the league's top 20.

With advantages both skating and in goal, the B's have to be the pick in this pick 'em. numberFire's model agrees, assigning a 57.7% win probability to the visitors in this one.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.