NFL Week 6 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 6's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NOTE: Predictions last updated Sunday at 9:11 am Eastern.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Eagles at Giants Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -7.8

Total Prediction: 45.2

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Projecting Saquon Barkley as in and Landon Dickerson as out. Think the New York Giants' offensive line has looked good enough with Andrew Thomas for me to agree with the value the model is showing in the over.

Broncos vs. Jets Prediction

Spread Prediction: Broncos -6.3

Total Prediction: 44.5

Betting Odds

Browns at Steelers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Steelers -5.6

Total Prediction: 40.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Didn't boost the Cleveland Browns despite what I think was a decent showing in Dillon Gabriel's debut, so this is still with low expectations for their offense. The Pittsburgh Steelers' offense has looked good enough where I think they can be competent even without Calvin Austin III.

Chargers at Dolphins Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chargers -1.4

Total Prediction: 42.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Los Angeles Chargers' injuries on offense seem to be making a real impact, so I don't mind taking the points with the Miami Dolphins.

Patriots at Saints Prediction

Spread Prediction: Patriots -1.0

Total Prediction: 44.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Feels a bit early to make the New England Patriots 3.5-point road favorites, even against a bad-ish team. I'm willing to take the points with the New Orleans Saints.

Seahawks at Jaguars Prediction

Spread Prediction: Seahawks -1.5

Total Prediction: 44.1

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Still showing a bit of value on the Seattle Seahawks' moneyline even though they've now flipped to being favorites.

Cardinals at Colts Prediction

Spread Prediction: Colts -9.7

Total Prediction: 47.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This now reflects Jacoby Brissett as starting for the Arizona Cardinals. Revenge game!

Rams at Ravens Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -7.7

Total Prediction: 43.9

Betting Odds

Cowboys at Panthers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cowboys -2.6

Total Prediction: 45.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Market has moved toward the Carolina Panthers even with Taylor Moton being ruled out. I find that odd. Feeling better about the value I show in the under now.

Titans at Raiders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Raiders -4.7

Total Prediction: 40.7

Betting Odds

49ers at Buccaneers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -2.9

Total Prediction: 47.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Projecting Mac Jones as the starter for the San Francisco 49ers with Ricky Pearsall projected as out. This number now reflects Chris Godwin's absence for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Bengals at Packers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -16.2

Total Prediction: 48.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Willing to take the value in the over, given the Green Bay Packers' improved offensive line health and the Cincinnati Bengals' poor defense. Given how poorly both Joe Flacco and Jake Browning have played, the trade doesn't change much for me.

Lions at Chiefs Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -0.2

Total Prediction: 49.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This number now reflects Taylor Decker's absence for the Detroit Lions.

Bills at Falcons Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -4.6

Total Prediction: 51.2

Betting Odds

Bears at Commanders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Commanders -4.8

Total Prediction: 48.7

Betting Odds

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.