NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Anthony Richardson in 2023

The Indianapolis Colts have spent the last several seasons trying to figure out the quarterback position. The sudden retirement of Andrew Luck just before the start of the 2019 NFL season forced them to start Jacoby Brissett for the year, and since then they’ve had a new starting quarterback in each season.

While they have spent the past three seasons trading for quarterbacks from other teams (to mild success), the franchise decided to shake things up in the 2023 NFL Draft by taking former Florida Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick.

The NFL prop bets market at the FanDuel Sportsbook has Richardson at +700 to win the Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2023, tying him with Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud for the third-strongest chance of taking home that title.

The Case for Anthony Richardson

Richardson’s passing stats from college leave the most to be desired among the quarterbacks drafted in the first round this year. His 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions last year pale in comparison to the gaudy numbers Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud put up in their final collegiate seasons, and his 53.8% completion rate is the lowest mark of any first-round quarterback drafted in at least the last 10 years.

From a pure passing standpoint, Richardson would appear to be at a disadvantage relative to his peers when it comes to his chances at winning the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award. But Richardson is built from a different mold than either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, and has more than just his ability as a passer at his disposal. He is quite possibly the best athlete we have ever seen at the quarterback position.

According to Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Score, or “RAS”, which compiles all of a player’s workout metrics from the NFL Combine into a composite score based on size, Richardson’s perfect 10.00 score ranks him as the most athletic quarterback dating back to 1987, with a sample size of 916 players.

At 6’4” and 244 lbs, Richardson ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. He also posted a 40.5” vertical jump, as well as a 10’ broad jump. His testing numbers were out of this world for a quarterback, and make him an elite size-adjusted athlete regardless of his position.

By comparison, running back Bijan Robinson (whose +300 odds lead all rookies to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award) ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash at 5 '11”, 215 lbs, jumped 3.5 inches shorter than Richardson in the vertical jump, and jumped 0.04” further in the broad jump. Richardson’s numbers compare favorably to Robinson’s, and become even more impressive considering he has an extra 5” and 30 lbs on the talented young running back.

We’ve seen what having elite athleticism can do for a quarterback. Justin Fields top-notch speed helped him finish 7th in the NFL with 1,143 rushing yards in 2022. Richardson’s size, athleticism, and collegiate production profile all resemble those of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who was able to utilize his physical tools to eventually develop into one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league.

We even have a close parallel to draw from with Cam Newton, who won the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2011. In his rookie campaign, Newton completed 60% of his passes for 4,051 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Those stats alone may have been enough to win Newton the award that season, but his 126 rushes for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns certainly helped seal the deal. Newton was a more successful passer than Richardson as a prospect, but it’s not hard to envision Richardson having similar success to Newton as a rusher in his own rookie year.

Richardson's Landing Spot Advantage

It feels fair to say that Anthony Richardson landed in the best situation for a rookie quarterback in this year’s draft class. The Texans have been one of the very worst teams in football over the last three years, fielding a roster built heavily from NFL journeymen, as they attempted to dig themselves out of the holes that previous General Manager Bill O’Brien dug for them. The Florida Panthers haven’t had a winning season since 2017. The Colts have had much more success than either of those teams in the recent past.

Injuries to key players on both sides of the ball contributed to the Colts’ poor 2022 season. The team should be healthier heading into the 2023 season, returning players like Jonathan Taylor on offense and players like Shaq Leonard, Kwity Paye, and Julian Blackmon on defense. The Colts finished with winning records in the 2020 and 2021 seasons before 2022’s collapse and still have much of the same infrastructure in place that helped them in their more successful campaigns.

New head coach Shane Steichen previously oversaw the development of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who also took advantage of his athleticism on the field while he developed as a passer. In his previous role as the Los Angeles Chargers' offensive coordinator, he ran the offense that helped Justin Herbert win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2020. Steichen’s recent track record of success with two athletic young passers bodes well for Richardson in his rookie season.

Final Thoughts

Richardson may be the least refined passer of the three first-round quarterbacks drafted in 2023, but it’s not hard to envision a 2023 season that ends with him winning the AP’s vote as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He already seems to have won the landing-spot lottery amongst his peers, and has the seal of approval from team owner Jim Irsay to start this season.

Richardson’s elite athleticism gives him the chance to turn every down into a highlight-reel-worthy play. In a sport where size definitely matters, the biggest, fastest player should be able to find success.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.