NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Ja'Marr Chase Is the Top Dog

The Cincinnati Bengalsmust be feeling pretty lucky these days. A year after they had the privilege to draft NCAA record-breaking quarterback Joe Burrow, they were able to draft his top pass-catcher from that record-setting season – Ja'Marr Chase.

Chase helped vault the 2019 LSU Tigers’ offense into the record books with his incredible sophomore season. He finished that campaign with a ridiculous 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns on 84 catches. He has since become one of the major factors in the Cincinnati Bengals’ about-face as a franchise.

Chase’ first two seasons in the NFL have already set him on an impressive trajectory. He took home the 2021 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award in near-unanimous fashion on the back of his 1,455-yard, 13-score rookie year. He followed that up with an impressive second season as well, compiling 1,046 yards and 9 scores in 2022 despite missing games with injuries.

Former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson won the AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2022 NFL season off of his own incredible year. It looks like it could be Chase’s turn in 2023; NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting odds have Ja’Marr Chase as the early favorite with +1200 odds to win the award this season.

What Does it Take to Win an Offensive Player of the Year Award?

While the NFL MVP award has typically gone to the best quarterback on the team with the best record in recent seasons, the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award has been a bit more nuanced – especially in recent years. In the early-to-mid-2000s, the MVP and OPOY awards had been in near-lockstep. Between 2004 and 2018, 10 of the 15 OPOY winners also took home MVP honors.

If there has been one defining trait across the recent OPOY winners in the NFL, it has been that those winners have been undeniable ballers during their campaigns. The three most-recent winners at the wide receiver position – Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, and Justin Jefferson – have each led the league in receptions and receiving yards in their winning campaigns. That seems within the realm of possibilities for Chase this season.

For starters, those three wideouts set an average of 141 catches for 1,827 yards in their winning seasons. That’s pretty much just under 10 catches per game for over 100 yards per game. They all drew insane amounts of volume in their respective passing games while continuing to produce efficiently on the targets they earned.

Can Chase Rise to the Challenge?

Chase has already shown an elite ability to produce with the kind of efficiency we’ve come to expect from OPOY candidates. In his very first season, he averaged a ridiculous 18 yards per reception, notching almost 100 yards per game despite catching just 4.8 receptions per game on average. He was truly a rare player, operating as a deep threat while adding value after the catch. Despite his 12.6-yard average depth of target, Chase still produced 8 yards after the catch on average. We usually see YAC numbers like Chase’s among running backs or tight ends, who operate closer to the line of scrimmage with aDOT’s closer to 0-2 yards. That Chase could produce YAC like a running back while drawing targets down the field already puts him in a rare position.

Chase’s per-catch efficiency did take a hit in his second season – especially while he dealt with injuries – but he did see his volume take a distinct step forward. He showed an ability to operate as a reliable chain-mover in his second year in Cincinnati, averaging 7.3 receptions per game. His average depth of target came down to nine yards down the field, which allowed Chase to shine even further as a yards-after-catch machine. Only Deebo Samuel generated more broken tackles (12) than Chase’s 10 last year, and Chase only played in 12 of 17 games.

Chase has been building towards the kind of season that can win an Offensive Player of the Year award. He has been an incredibly efficient player since the moment he stepped on an NFL field, and in his second season, he proved that he could produce more than just a deep threat. Few players have the same ability to combine efficient, explosive playmaking with chain-moving dependability – and a good number of those players have won OPOY honors themselves.

If Chase had played a full season in 2022, there’s a chance he could already have an OPOY under his belt. Justin Jefferson’s season was more than deserving of the honors – he finished the year with 128 catches for 1,809 yards and 8 scores – but Chase was on pace for relatively similar numbers. Had he continued producing at the same pace, he could have finished the year with 124 catches for 1,482 yards. That’s quite a bit shy of Jefferson’s 1,809 receiving yards, but Chase has the edge when it comes to perhaps the most important part of the game – scoring.

Since Chase entered the league in 2021, only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp have scored more receiving touchdowns than his 22. For all of Justin Jefferson’s voluminous production last year, it still resulted in just 8 receiving scores. Chase had 9 in his 12 games alone and was on pace for almost 13 had he been able to play the whole season.

Chase has been one of the most prolific scorers since he entered the league, and could push for Randy Moss’s record-setting 23 touchdowns in a single season in 2023.

Will the Bengals Hold Chase Back?

Perhaps the biggest hurdles Chase will have to clear to take home an Offensive Player of the Year award will come from his own team.

Teammate Tee Higgins has risen to the challenge of playing across from Chase over the last two seasons, posting at least 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards despite the elite competition for looks. Chase won’t need Higgins to fall off the map to put up OPOY numbers, but he will need to establish himself as the team’s clear go-to guy over Higgins instead of the co-WR1 role they each have filled in their two seasons together.

Competing with another top-notch receiver for targets is hard enough by its own merits, but in the OPOY race Chas will also likely need to compete with his own quarterback for attention.

It can be assumed that if Chase is putting up league-best numbers, Joe Burrow is having a fantastic season for himself at the same time. If we do think Chase could push Randy Moss’ single-season touchdown record, that means that we can also add a big chunk of touchdowns to Burrow’s passing touchdown tally.

Patrick Mahomes won the Offensive Player of the Year award in 2018 for his breakout 50-touchdown season, and Burrow could become a frontrunner for the award with a similar season. Burrow’s +3500 odds to win the award put him significantly behind Chase’s league-best +1200 odds, but the two players are intrinsically tied together to the point where they could become each others’ biggest competition.

It puts Chase in a bit of a weird position -- though not one he can’t overcome. After all, Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, and Justin Jefferson each won the award over their own quarterbacks in recent years. What Chase needs from Burrow is excellent quarterback play that doesn’t overshadow his own show-stealing performances.

Chase’s aforementioned ability to break tackles and rack up YAC should help him shine in a relatively quarterback-independent fashion, and it also wouldn’t hurt if Burrow threw a few extra interceptions this season – both lessening the risk of Burrow competing against Chase for the honors and potentially increasing the Bengals’ need to pass if those interceptions put them in a bad spot on the scoreboard.

Chase's 2023 Outlook

Ja'Marr is the early frontrunner for the Offensive Player of the Year award this season with his +1200 odds, and it’s relatively easy to see why.

He’s still just 23 years old, is already one of the most explosive players in the league, and has even shown the potential to grow even further. He boasts the best quarterback out of any of his chief rivals for the award this season and is in position for the kind of hyper-productive season that has led to past OPOY seasons among wide receivers in recent years.

Former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson took home the award in 2022, and now Chase has the opportunity to follow in his footsteps in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.