NFL Betting Picks for the Week 16 Saturday Slate

The NFL is taking over football Saturdays. The college football season is virtually wrapped up, so each of the final three weeks of the NFL season will contain at least one Saturday game. That means more days of NFL football -- a true holiday gift.

This week we have two games to tune into on Saturday, starting at 4:30 p.m. ET. The games already have massive playoff implications, but if you want to spice up your viewing experiences further, consider these bets for Saturday's slate on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Saturday Slate Best Bets

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Under 37 (-110)

Saturday's slate will kick things off with an important divisional battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both the 8-6 Bengals and the 7-7 Steelers are still capable of securing playoff berths, meaning this one should be a hotly contested battle -- even if both teams are starting backup quarterbacks.

That's kind of the heart of the matter, though, and why I'm taking the under on this game.

Jake Browning's success so far as Joe Burrow's backup has been an incredible surprise, but he could be due for a decline in Week 16. On the other side of the field, the Steelers grew tired of primary backup Mitchell Trubisky and are moving on to third-stringer Mason Rudolph for Week 16. We haven't really seen Rudolph since the 2019 NFL season, but he was quite bad back then. It remains to be seen if he's improved at all in the years he's spent on the bench since.

During the Bengals' current three-game winning streak, Browning has been running white hot. He's averaging 12.5 yards per attempt on play-action passes (second-most in the league) and 10.5 yards per attempt on screens (most). Those plays have constituted almost 40% of his drop backs in that period.

He has been leveraging that efficiency on manufactured plays into strong offensive outputs so far, though without star wideout Ja'Marr Chase -- whose shoulder injury will sideline him for at least Week 16 -- we could see that hot streak come to an end.

His efficiency on those plays has somewhat covered up his high 8.3% sack rate over the past few weeks, and that high sack rate could come back to bite him this week, especially against a pass rush spearheaded by NFL sack leader T.J. Watt. What happens when your efficient, designed plays stop working, but you keep taking sacks at a high rate? Viewers on Saturday might find out.

If it feels like we're only talking about the Bengals' offense here, that's because they're the side that would have to do the heavy lifting to hit the over. The Steelers' "offense" has been a disaster for most of the year and is unlikely to bounce back with Rudolph leading the proverbial sleigh. They've averaged a miserable 13.4 points per game over their last five outings and have taken losses to two of the very worst teams in the NFL in that time.

If this game does hit the over, it's more likely to have come from Browning defying the odds again than it is to come from a Steelers resurgence.

Parlay Plays and Related Bets

If you're with me on this AFC North battle hitting the under, consider building a Same Game Parlay. If the game itself goes under 37, there's a good chance these teams will combine for fewer than 18.5 points in the first half (-105). If a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers offense sounds as uninspiring to you as it does to me, you can bundle in the under on his 0.5 passing touchdowns prop (+164).

For more long-term takeaways, T.J. Watt's 16 sacks currently lead the league. He has a chance to notch another sack or two on Saturday against Browning, who's taking sacks at one of the highest rates. Watt is the current frontrunner to finish as the sacks leader this year, but you can still get +160 odds on him to claim the title on the FanDuel Sportsbook's Season Futures Betting Odds market.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo Bills -12.5 (-110)

No one is realistically expecting the Los Angeles Chargers to give up another 60-bomb in Week 16 after losing 63-21 in embarrassing fashion to the Las Vegas Raiders last Thursday night.

Those kinds of games are inherently fluky and hard to come by, even for a team down as bad as Los Angeles. They coughed up five turnovers against a defense whose defining characteristic over the past several seasons has been their inability to generate turnovers. The Raiders' defense has ranked bottom-three in turnovers created in each of the past four seasons.

But even a "bounce back" here could still end up with a rough loss by more than a couple scores -- especially when their opponent is the Buffalo Bills. Even if the Bills have garnered a bit of a reputation for playing down to the level of their opponents over the years, they should still easily dispatch the Chargers.

According to each team's expected points metrics, we're talking about the third-best offense in the league teeing off against the third-worst defense. The Bills -- who are fresh off of a 31-10 beatdown victory over the Dallas Cowboys -- should have little problem moving the ball against the Chargers' turnstile of a defense.

In further illustration of this massive mismatch, the Bills' defense ranks 12th-best in expected points. The Chargers' offense -- even with the benefit of having Justin Herbert under center for much of the year -- ranks just 19th. Easton Stick may not be as bad as he looked in Week 15 -- after all, he was tasked with becoming the starter on a short week -- but he's still light years away from matching what Herbert was capable of producing.

To make matters worse, the Bills' offense is tapping into what the Chargers' defense just can't stop -- the rushing game. Since Week 10, the Chargers are allowing 146.2 rushing yards per game, which would rank second-most in the league this season. In that same stretch, the Bills have averaged 175.8 yards of offense per game out of their ground assault, the most productive rushing attack.

The combination of the skill gap between these two rosters and the mismatch of what the Bills' offense does well versus what the Chargers' defense does poorly should make this an exceptionally easy victory for Buffalo. Backing 12.5-point favorites isn't always easy, but this one looks like it is.

Parlay Plays and Related Bets

If this one looks just as lopsided to you, consider leveraging your Bills -12.5 spread bet with a Winning Margin bet that they'll win by 14-plus points. And if you think Buffalo will double down on its winning strategy from a week ago, also consider taking the over on running back James Cook's 71.5-yard rushing prop (-114).

Cook even has his own special bet on the FanDuel Sportsbook's Holiday Specials Betting Odds market. With +1400 odds, you can bet on his "Let Him Cook" special, which would require him to score at least one rushing touchdown and at least one receiving touchdown in Week 16.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.