NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/4/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers

Under 240.0 (-110)

The Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers are squaring up in a game with a total of 240.0 points, which is the highest on the slate today.

The Pacers have started off with a per-game average of 119.6 points per game (plus 123.2 points per game allowed) for a total of 242.8.

The Hornets' marks are 113.8, 120.5, and 234.3, respectively.

So, it's been some over-friendly basketball with the Pacers' over/under record sitting at 4-1 and Charlotte's at 2-2.

Ultimately, this is a matchup between two teams that are top-four in pace, so it's understandable that the total is this high given all of this information.

But with that said, these two teams are around the NBA average in effective field goal percentage and are both top-five in shooting percentage from the mid-range.

The Hornets are 25th in three-point frequency and 29th in three-point percentage, and dunksandthrees.com has them ranked 30th in adjusted offensive rating.

On the flip side, the Pacers are getting unlucky defensively, which is adding points to their games.

They've allowed a three-point percentage of 40.7% (second-highest in the NBA) despite allowing a league-low 29.3% three-point attempt rate. Basically, they're doing a great job limiting threes but are just seeing a lot of them go in.

It's probably time for some regression to hit here and for the under to come through.

Gordon Hayward Under 4.5 Assists (-108)

There are some interesting assist props in this matchup (around Tyrese Haliburton, specifically), but Gordon Hayward's assist prop is showing value.

numberFire's model anticipates 4.3 assists for him in this matchup, and given the reasons mentioned for the game total under, that should translate to an under for Hayward's assist prop, as well.

My model has his expected under odds at -131 at 4.5 assists.

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets

Over 221.0 (-110)

The Sacramento Kings are letting it fly from the three-point arc. They've got a 44.8% three-point attempt rate (4th-best in the NBA) but are 20th in three-point make percentage (33.9%).

As for the Houston Rockets, they are bottom-10 in three-point attempt rate allowed. Translation: the Kings should get up threes in this matchup.

Now, the Rockets' pace is bottom-five in the NBA, yet the Kings' is top-five. It's a pretty good combination for an over.

Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves

Jordan Clarkson Over 15.5 Points (-108)

The model at numberFire projects Jordan Clarkson for 17.5 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, and that checks out.

Clarkson has averaged 14.8 points on 13.7 shot attempts per game.

Last game out, he had 20 shot attempts over 37 minutes -- plus 9 free throw attempts.

Now, the Timberwolves' defense is great statistically to start the season, but they're going to face a lot of possessions from the Utah Jazz (who are seventh in pace).

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes (-111)

When looking for three-point props, it's never a bad idea to dig into three-point frequency allowed. Makes and misses are flukey and can depend a lot on opponents faced. Allowing a high rate of three-pointers is a team tendency that we can try to leverage.

The Chicago Bulls are 29th in three-point defense by three-point attempt rate.

Michael Porter Jr. can take advantage of it. numberFire's model projects him for 3.0 makes tonight, and he should have plenty of chances to get the volume required to hit three triples.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.