Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 4/10/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper (+360) -- At home versus a meh right-hander.
• Matt Olson (+350) -- In his preferred split (home vs. RHP) and red-hot so far
• Jackson Merrill (+420) -- Taking on a low-K pitcher and owns the platoon advantage

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Home Run Pick: Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Diamondbacks at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

Right-handed Mike Soroka struggled with lefties last season, and that makes Bryce Harper a quality home run pick today.

In 2025, Soroka gave up 1.47 jacks per night to left-handed hitters -- compared to 0.89 in righty-righty matchups.

Harper was at his best at home against righties last year, which is exactly the situation he finds himself in today. In that spilt in 2025, Harper posted a .425 wOBA and 42.5% fly-ball rate. He popped 11 homers in just 165 plate appearances in the split.

With a .380 expected wOBA so far, Harper is off to a nice start, and he can take advantage of this matchup.

Home Run Pick: Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Guardians at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

Matt Olson is off to a superb start, boasting a .413 wOBA and three homers through his first 57 plate appearances. He's in a good spot to keep it going thanks to a home date with Slade Cecconi.

In 2025, Cecconi surrendered a 41.8% hard-hit rate, 39.1% fly-ball rate and 1.72 home runs per nine innings to lefty bats.

Similar to Harper, this is the best split to target Olson. Last season, 15 of his 29 homers came at home versus righties as he mashed his way to a .400 wOBA and 40.5% hard-hit rate in the split.

Olson has homered three times across his last seven games, and he can continue that tear today.

Home Run Picks: Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Rockies at Padres, 9:41 p.m. ET

Tomoyuki Sugano is one of the lesser arms on the board today, and I like the idea of targeting him via Jackson Merrill's home run prop.

So far in his brief MLB career, Sugano has had a rough time in just about every split. Lefties have mauled him to the tune of 1.99 homers per nine innings and a 38.5% fly-ball rate.

Last campaign, Merrill wasn't able to match his remarkable 2024 rookie output, but he was still very good against RHPs, generating a .359 wOBA and 40.8% fly-ball rate in the split. Of his 16 bombs, 14 came with the platoon advantage.

I like the Padres' young outfielder to put one in the seats today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that an HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.