MLB Betting Guide for Monday 9/11/23: Cubs Poised for Fireworks at Coors Field

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies

Cubs Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (+108)

We start out west, in Denver, where there should be a lot of offense in this Chicago Cubs-Colorado Rockies matchup... at least for the visitors.

The Cubs have been one of the hottest offenses in the league over the second half of the season. Ranking fourth in runs (5.73), and seventh in both wOBA (.338) and ISO (.190) since the All-Star break. I like the Cubs to stay hot and score at least seven runs in a soft matchup at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Chicago's north siders square off with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland tonight. Freeland has one of the kindest pitchers in the league to opposing hitters this season, sporting a 5.09 ERA, a 5.24 SIERA, and a measly 14.2% strikeout rate. He's giving up an above-average 40.5% flyball rate which, coupled with 8.9% barrel and 43.5% hard-hit rates, spells trouble in one of the best hitting environments in baseball.

Looking at the Cubs' offense, there's a lot to like tonight. They've been solid against lefties, ranking: 14th in wOBA (.312); 11th in ISO (.176); 15th in WRC+ (96); and 16th in HR/FB rate (12.5%) since the All-Star break. They're also expected to feature eight right-handed hitters in their lineup tonight, against whom Freeland has allowed a staggering .384 wOBA and .911 OPS.

Although they failed to score seven runs in a single game during their most recent series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, they had previously done so in three of their last four games. The matchup and venue are there for Chicago's offense to get back on track and score at least seven at Coors Field.

Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins

Rays ML (-124)

I can't seem to take my eyes off the visitors tonight and that's especially true up north where I like the visiting Tampa Bay Rays on the moneyline against the Minnesota Twins. This largely comes down to the pitching matchup -- one in which Tampa Bay holds a distinct advantage.

Tyler Glasnow toes the rubber for the Rays tonight, bringing with him one of the best pitching resumes of 2023. Among pitchers with at least 90 innings, Glasnow leads the league in xFIP (2.70), ranks second with a 3.01 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and forces ground balls at the 11th-highest rate (51.1%).

That bodes well for Tampa's chances tonight considering Minnesota's been rock solid against right-handed pitchers. For the season, they rank sixth in both wOBA (.329) and ISO (.186) in that split while generating ground balls at the third-lowest rate (38.8%). Consequently, Glasnow's ability to keep the ball out of the air could prove crucial to their chances of winning tonight -- though, he'll be aided by the Twins' strikeout tendencies.

Against righties, Minnesota boasts the highest strikeout rate in the league (27.3%). In general, they've been one of the whiff-happiest teams in baseball this season, boasting the third-highest called + swinging strike rate (28.8 CSW%) and second-lowest zone contact percentage (83.6%) in baseball.

Their affinity for swing-and-misses could lead to a dominant outing for Glasnow considering he sports the second-highest strikeout rate (33.5%) and CSW% (33.5%) in the league. Coming off a 14-strikeout game, and with quality starts in eight of his last nine outings, Glasnow is pitching as well as anyone right now.

On the opposite side, I'm optimistic the Rays can find success against Twins' starter Sonny Gray.

Gray has been solid this season but with a SIERA (4.08) significantly higher than his ERA (2.98), he's someone we're going to target as a regression candidate. While he has done a great job forcing ground balls (48.0%) and limiting home runs (league-low 0.39 HR/9), the Rays aren't a team that needs the long ball to be successful. With a projected five left-handed hitters in Tampa's lineup (against whom Gray has struggled), they shouldn't have any issues giving Glasnow run support.

With how well Glasnow's been pitching, they won't need to score much -- which is why I'm similarly interested in the Under 7.5 (-115) -- but for our purposes, we'll just key in on Tampa winning outright.

Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants

Guardians ML (+126)

We close things out with another road moneyline play -- this time, an underdog.

Despite a rookie on the bump, I like the Cleveland Guardians to win outright against the San Francisco Giants.

Although I said "despite a rookie on the bump" I really should've prefaced it with "because of the rookie on the bump" as Gavin Williams is the biggest factor in this play. Williams has been inconsistent but has flashed brilliance at times. Coming into tonight's start he's running a 3.34 ERA, a 4.21 xERA, and a 24.4% strikeout rate. He's done an excellent job limiting barrels (4.8%) and is coming off a stellar outing against the Twins in which he allowed just a single hit and run.

The matchup is there for Williams to flash the stuff that made him such a highly-touted prospect.

To be blunt, the San Francisco offense is a trainwreck right now.

Since the All-Star break, the Giants have averaged the fewest runs per game (3.81), the lowest wOBA (.290), and the second-lowest ISO (.139) in the league. They've been just as bad against righties, against whom they've registered a measly 85 wRC+, the fourth-lowest in baseball. While they are coming off a home sweep over the Rockies, they should get back to their losing ways against a decent Guardians team.

While Cleveland hasn't been especially impressive this season, their offense has picked it up over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Guardians rank 17th in wRC+ (99) and 19th in wOBA (.312) against righties while striking out at the second-lowest clip (18.8%) in that split. Those aren't incredible numbers by any means, but they're more than enough to get it done against San Francisco's starter, Alex Cobb.

Cobb sports a decent ERA (3.74) but his strikeout rate (20.4%) doesn't scare me and his affinity for allowing hard hits (43.8%) gives me confidence in Cleveland's lineup.

We're getting nice value here with Cleveland's moneyline but considering how poor San Fran's offense has been, I'm more than okay taking the Under 7.5 (-102) as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.