Kentucky Derby Horse: Pavlovian Odds, History, and Predictions

The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 152nd time at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2. The road to the Kentucky Derby has drawn to a close, and the field of 20 is taking shape. The most seasoned horse in the field, with ten races leading into the Run for the Roses, is Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up Pavlovian, who started among state-breds, but has proven himself against open company in time to try to become the first California-bred Kentucky Derby winner since California Chrome in 2014.

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Pavlovian Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions

The Kentucky Derby was drawn on April 25, with morning-line odds assigned that day as well. Pavlovian breaks from post 16 – which could be a challenge, especially since another horse with a lot of early speed, Six Speed, is drawn directly to his outside. Pavlovian is 30-1 on the morning line.

Pavlovian Horse Trainer and Jockey

Pavlovian is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill, who also trained his Grade 1-winning sire Pavel. O’Neill won the Derby with both I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016. Among his eight starters is also a second-place finisher, Hot Rod Charlie, in 2021.

Edwin Maldonado has ridden Pavlovian in his last two starts and will return to the irons for the Kentucky Derby. Maldonado has been riding since 2002, but has not yet started in the Kentucky Derby. He is a two-time Grade 1 stakes winner: he took the 2022 Awesome Again (G1) with Defunded and the 2023 Cotillion (G1) with Ceiling Crusher. The latter was also trained by O’Neill.

Pavlovian Race History

With 10 career starts, Pavlovian is the most seasoned horse in the field. Seven of those have come against California-breds, including his maiden win at Santa Anita last June. However, he has not finished worse than second in his three starts against open company. He was a distant second behind Desert Gate in the Best Pal (G3) last August at Del Mar. His more recent route starts have been better: he reeled in favored Express Kid after battling on the pace to win by a nose in the Sunland Park Derby, and then just failed to hold off Emerging Market to finish second by a head in the Louisiana Derby, his final Kentucky Derby prep.

Speed ratings are courtesy of Equibase.

Pavlovian Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Pavlovian is getting good at the right time: his best two races so far have been the Sunland Derby and the Louisiana Derby, his last two outings. And, though an easy lead is unlikely, there isn’t as much early speed lined up for the 2026 Kentucky Derby as in any other years, so his California speed – and ability to keep battling late – could pay off.

However, the fact that he was caught late going 1 3/16 miles isn’t the best harbinger for him wanting another half-furlong. On one hand, he could step forward after getting that experience – but after the sharp recent steps forward, there is a risk he could regress.

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