Justin Herbert Can Leap Into Fantasy Football's Elite Tier of Quarterbacks

The Los Angeles Chargers start training camp on July 27th. With the NFL preseason almost here, it's time to start preparing for Fantasy Football Drafts.

Justin Herbert recorded the second-most passing yards in the NFL last season and is expected to be one of the first seven quarterbacks taken in fantasy drafts this year.

With Kellen Moore now in charge of the offense, what's Herbert's outlook in 2023?

Justin Herbert Overview

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 283.26 points
2023 Projected Points: 322.80 points
numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: QB7
2023 Projected Stats:

• 4,749.81 passing yards
• 29.34 passing TDs
• 11.73 INTs
• 274.1 rushing yards
• 2.20 rushing TDs

Justin Herbert's 2023 Fantasy Outlook

An Early Career Crossroads and a New Offensive Coordinator

Since being selected with the sixth overall pick in 2020, Herbert's career had been moving in the right direction. After an impressive rookie season, Herbert took the next step as a sophomore, throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns and earning Pro Football Focus' (PFF) third-highest offense grade (min. 300 dropbacks). All that was missing was postseason success. The stage was set for Herbert to join the game's elite in 2022. Instead, he took a step back.

Operating in his second season in offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's system, Herbert regressed in yards per attempt (from 7.5 to 6.8), touchdowns (from 38 to 25), and posted the lowest PFF offense grade of his three-year career (78.6). In 2021, Herbert's 15 interceptions tied for third-most in the league. In 2022, his interceptions decreased to 10, but it came at the expense of the offense's overall production. Herbert's completion percentage improved from 65.9% to 68.2%, but he threw for 265 fewer yards despite recording 27 more attempts. His play was far more conservative, resulting in 4.9 fewer points per game for the Chargers' offense.

To help get Herbert back on track, the Chargers made a change, moving on from Joe Lombardi and bringing in Kellen Moore. Moore had just been let go from his position as offensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas scored the third-most points in the NFL last season (467), but quarterback Dak Prescott led the league in interceptions (15) despite only playing in 12 games. Mike McCarthy opted to let Moore go and call plays himself with the goal of cutting down on turnovers at the potential expense of offensive production.

In summary, the Chargers are moving on from an offensive coordinator that they deemed too conservative for sacrificing offensive production to cut back on Herbert's interceptions and bringing in Moore, who was just let go for prioritizing offensive production at the expense of Prescott's interceptions. It paints a clear picture; the Chargers want to operate an explosive offense that utilizes Herbert's skillset and maximizes offensive production. That sounds like an ideal strategy for fantasy football production.

Last season, Herbert's average depth of target (aDOT) was the third-lowest in the league (7.0; min. 300 dropbacks). The only two quarterbacks with a lower ADOT were Matt Ryan (6.5) and Daniel Jones (6.4). Prescott's average depth of target (8.7) was the ninth-highest. Operating in Moore's system, Herbert should be encouraged to throw the ball further down the field more often. If he returns to the level of production he displayed in 2021 (7.5 yards per attempt and 7.9 aDOT), he will be a value at his ADP.

If the alignment of Moore's offense and Herbert's skill set click from the start, the ceiling could be something well beyond that.

Changes to His Weaponry

To reach that ceiling outcome the Chargers will require more from their pass catchers.

With Keenan Allen (seven games) and Mike Williams (four games) both missing time last season, running back Austin Ekeler led Los Angeles in targets (123). His average depth of target was -0.8. Regardless of who is calling the plays, the Chargers can't operate a more explosive downfield offense if 18.9% of their targets have an average depth behind the line of scrimmage. Allen (9.0 aDOT) and Williams (12.7 aDOT) need to stay healthy, and the Chargers need more downfield threats.

Enter rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston, who the Chargers selected with the 21st overall pick in April's draft. Listed at 6-foot-4, Johnston excels at utilizing his 40.5-inch vertical leap to haul in passes. He is an ideal complement to Allen and Williams, providing Herbert with an explosive pass-catcher to stretch the field. According to PFF, Herbert had the fourth-lowest turnover-worthy-play rate on deep passes last season (2.9%). With a trio of Allen, Williams, and Johnston, Herbert can operate an impactful downfield passing attack while limiting the primary drawback of that strategy -- interceptions.

Opportunity Cost: Where is Herbert Being Drafted?

There is an opportunity cost to every draft pick in fantasy football. When you choose to draft a player, you are also choosing to give up the opportunity to draft other players with similar average draft positions (ADP). Thinking about these tradeoffs as you maneuver through a draft can help you build a better roster.

Herbert's current ADP in FanDuel's best-ball contests is 42.4. On Fantasy Football Calculator, his ADP is 58.

Selecting Herbert at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Calvin Ridley, running backs Joe Mixon and Breece Hall and quarterback Justin Fields.

Samuel is an electric player but took a step back in production last season and is dealing with uncertainty at quarterback. Ridley has a chance to excel in an ascending Jacksonville Jaguars offense but hasn't played since October of 2021.

Mixon has a valuable role in a prolific offense, but his 3.9 yards per attempt last season ranked 85th in the NFL last season, and his overall fantasy production declined despite an increased role in the passing game. Hall is a tremendous talent operating in an improved New York Jets' offense, but he's coming off a major injury.

Fields is trending in the right direction on a Chicago Bears team that gained an influx of talent this offseason, but there are still serious questions about his passing game production and consistency.

Final Verdict

Herbert is an elite talent that is set to benefit from an ideal alignment of his skill set and Kellen Moore's offense in 2023. The x-factor at hand is the health of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and the development of rookie Quentin Johnston. If all three are healthy, the sky is the limit for Herbert and the Chargers. If Allen or Williams miss time, Johnston provides depth that hasn't been there in Herbert's previous seasons.

In terms of his ADP, Herbert is the sixth quarterback off the board in FanDuel best-ball contests. Along with Justin Fields (ADP of 43.0) and Trevor Lawrence (ADP of 56.1), Herbert is part of the final tier of signal-callers being drafted early. The next quarterback off the board, Deshaun Watson, has an ADP of 129.2.

Since Herbert doesn't offer the dual-threat production of Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Fields, he has to have access to elite passing game production to justify his draft slot. Joe Burrow (27.1 ADP) is in a similar situation and is the best comparison for Herbert.

Here are some potential two-versus-two comparisons of the players you can pair with Herbert by selecting a different position when Burrow comes off the board.

Some potential scenarios include:

• Herbert and Jaylen Waddle/DeVonta Smith vs. Burrow and Samuel/Ridley
• Herbert and Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Burrow and Mixon/Hall
• Herbert and T.J. Hockenson vs. Burrow and Dallas Goedert

How you feel about these tradeoffs can help decide if Herbert is worth selecting at his current ADP.

With the change in offense coordinator and addition of Johnston at wide receiver, Herbert has access to elite passing game production in 2023. His upside scenario could see him equaling or surpassing Burrow's production while providing the opportunity to pair him with a more impactful wide receiver, running back, or tight end.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.