Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4

7mo

Kudos if you started De'Von Achane (49.3 half-PPR points) last week. There aren't many of you, but for the handful that did, he single-handedly won you your week.

The same goes for Raheem Mostert (41.7 points).

Basically, if you had anyone on the Miami Dolphins (70 real-life points) you were in a pretty strong spot to win your Week 3 fantasy matchup.

That said, week-winning performances weren't solely reserved for Dolphins.

Keenan Allen (36.5), Davante Adams (35.7), and the Buffalo D/ST (32) all delivered incredible performances that surely had fantasy managers smiling (or, if you played against them like me, weeping).

Entering Week 4, we can finally start to get rid of preseason narratives and projections in favor of the actual in-season data. Even so, it can be difficult to think rationally about the underperforming players you spent a lot of draft capital on, or to know whether your hot waiver add is legit.

But don't worry.

I've got you covered.

Every week, I'll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire's projection model.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though, the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 4

Quarterback

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Daniel Jones (NYG) struggled last week and now has two duds in three weeks. Still, those two games came two of the best defenses in the NFL, and he was the QB1 (31.7 points) the one week he didn't play Dallas or San Francisco. Jones' rushing upside gives him a huge floor, while his matchup -- Seattle's allowing the 9th-most fantasy points per game (20.6) to quarterbacks -- gives him a monster ceiling. He's a fringe QB1 with top-five upside.
Jordan Love (GB) almost has to be a starter in good matchups going forward. Through three weeks, Love slots in as the QB4 (22.9 PPG) in fantasy, notably ranking 6th in EPA (expected points added) per dropback (0.10) and 1st in aDOT (10.4) despite being without Christian Watson and only having Aaron Jones for one game. With both playmakers expected to play this week, Love is well-positioned to extend his streak of 20-point games against a middling Lions defense that has now lost C.J. Gardner-Johnson and James Houston.
Geno Smith (SEA) has bounced back from a brutal opener to average 312.0 yards and a 57.5% passing success rate across his last two games. He only finished with 16.4 fantasy points in a game Seattle scored 37 points, but they had 2 scores on the ground and kicked 5 field goals, so I'll mark that down as unlucky. Geno is again a high-floor option in Week 4 against a Giants defense allowing the 3rd-highest EPA per dropback (0.27) and generating the 2nd-lowest pressure rate (26.8%).

Tier 3: On the Fence

Justin Fields (CHI) did this last year, too. Through the first three weeks of last season, he'd amassed just 31.4 fantasy points, 297 passing yards, and 97 rushing yards. This year he's at 43.9 fantasy points, 526 passing yards, and 109 rushing yards. Improvement! Optimistically, Fields' matchups have been pretty tough thus far, playing the 4th-, 13th-, and 14th-best defenses in terms of EPA per dropback. This week's foe, the Broncos, rank 32nd (0.46) and just gave up 350 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground last week. I get it if you're wary, but there aren't many guys outside the top 10 with overall QB1 upside.
Brock Purdy (SF) is an absolute machine in Kyle Shanahan's offense. I don't really care what he would look like on another team: he's on the 49ers. For fantasy purposes, that alone vaults him into starting consideration. Through three weeks, Mr. Irrelevant slots in as the QB13 at 17.3 fantasy points per game. I'd be lying if I said he -- ranking 2nd in EPA per dropback (0.20) and 7th in pass success rate (50.5%) -- couldn't keep this up. Purdy likely won't win you a week, but against a below-average Arizona secondary, he certainly won't lose it for you.
Deshaun Watson (CLE) looked a lot better last week, but I still have reservations about throwing him into my starting lineup. He completed 81.8% of his passes for 289 yards -- both of which were the highest marks he's achieved since joining the Browns. While we won't complain about 21.2 fantasy points, it came against a putrid Titans secondary, and interestingly, he only had 234.2 air yards despite otherwise strong numbers. Consider me encouraged but not yet sold enough to start him against a Ravens defense allowing the 7th-lowest EPA per dropback (-0.21).
Russell Wilson (DEN) is proving to have a pretty high floor in fantasy. Despite losing by 50 points in Week 3, Russ still managed 15.2 fantasy points. He's got some weapons on the outside, but it's the matchup that puts him into the starting conversation this week. Chicago has given up the 2nd-highest EPA per dropback (0.37) and the 5th-most fantasy points per game (22.1) to opposing quarterbacks. You could do worse with a few usual starters facing tough matchups.

Tier 4: Sit

Lamar Jackson (BAL) is going to break my golden rule this week. In almost every other situation, I'd tell you, "Just play your studs." But this isn't a normal situation as Lamar is up against arguably the best defense in the NFL -- the Cleveland Browns. Having given up just a single offensive touchdown this season, the Browns are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game (6.2) and the lowest EPA per dropback (-0.60) to opposing QBs. I'm sitting every Raven I can this week, Lamar included.
Jared Goff (DET) is playing on the road, so we aren't playing Jared Goff in fantasy. Since joining the Lions in 2021, Goff has averaged 18.0 fantasy points through the air at home compared to just 11.8 on the road. Green Bay has been solid enough on defense that I'm good to fade Goff on a short week at Lambeau Field.
Dak Prescott (DAL) didn't completely hinder you last week, but his 15.4 points didn't do much to help you win despite a plus matchup. This may just be where we're at with Dak in a Mike McCarthy offense. His floor is relatively high on a week-to-week basis, but the ceiling just isn't there given Dallas' 29th-ranked, -6.5% pass rate over expectation (PROE). The Patriots rank in the top 10 in EPA per dropback (-0.17) and fantasy points allowed (10.7) to quarterbacks, making Dak an easy sit.

Running Back

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

De'Von Achane (MIA) exploded in Week 3 and was the top waiver wire target ahead of Week 4. There are dozens of eye-popping stats from Miami's historic win, but this may be my favorite: De'Von Achane is the RB5 in half-PPR for the season... after scoring 1.4 points in the first two weeks combined. Despite only playing 42.3% of Miami's snaps, Achane saw 18 rush attempts and garnered a 14.3% target share. He's never going to dominate touches (especially when Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed return), but I'd be hard-pressed not to have Achane in my starting lineup now that we know this is in the range of outcomes.
Jerome Ford (CLE) is approaching lineup lock status, quickly. While the rushing wasn't there against a stingy Tennessee front, Ford saw a healthy 55.2% of snaps and cashed in on their only red zone rushing attempt. Most encouraging was his usage in the passing game. He flexed his route-running with on his touchdown catch and led the Cleveland backfield with a 63.9% route participation. Sure, the 9.7% target share tied teammate Kareem Hunt, yet Ford should see that number tick up if he keeps running this many routes. He's a low end-RB2 with upside.
Isiah Pacheco (KC) won't ever completely take over the Kansas City backfield, but he's now led their backs in snap share for three consecutive weeks. The targets (3.0 per game) have been a nice bonus, and he's garnered 9 red zone rushing attempts in the last two weeks alone. That touchdown upside makes him a low-end RB2 despite a tough matchup with the Jets (7th-lowest, -0.19 EPA per carry) on deck.
Javonte Williams (DEN), like the rest of the Denver, can probably just Ctrl+Alt+Delete the Week 3 game film. It was encouraging to see him lead the backfield in snap share (42.4%), rush attempts (11), and target share (8.3%), but I'm not sure what to take away from a game that the Broncos were trailing by double digits 9 minutes in. He's provided a pretty stable floor thus far and has a chance to really break out in Week 3 against a Bears defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game (32.2) to opposing running backs.
Rachaad White (TB) finished with an ugly fantasy line in Week 3, racking up under 6.0 points for the second time in three weeks. Yet, I remain pretty confident in his usage. He absolutely dominated the snaps (40 to Sean Tucker's 4) and rush attempts (14-2) and ran a route on an encouraging 85.2% of dropbacks. Better days are ahead for someone getting this much work. Notably, the Saints have given up the 7th-most rushing EPA (0.81) in the NFL. Consider him a weak RB2 or strong FLEX.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Brian Robinson (WSH) played just 37.3% of snaps in Week 3 after eclipsing 50% each of the first two weeks. That likely has everything to do with the game script, as the Commanders got down big early and never found any resemblance of offense in their blowout loss. Still, it was discouraging to see Robinson go target-less after garnering five in the first two weeks. Although he was still effective on the ground, if Washington goes down early to the Eagles this week I don't love B-Rob's upside.
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) was clearly the less effective back in Philly's offense last week, but that didn't stop him from garnering a 46.2% snap share and 46.6% of their running back carries. Of his 14 attempts, a staggering 4 came in the red zone. That touchdown upside vaults him into FLEX consideration given that the Eagles have the third-highest implied team total (26.5) of the week.
Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris (PIT) are in a pretty even timeshare -- Najee is good for 50-55% of snaps with Jaylen taking up 40-45%. Warren is the prefered fantasy option at this point. He not only looks like the better rusher (37.5% rush success rate in Week 3 compared to Harris' 21.1%) but also gets the bulk of the passing work (14.8% target share in Week 3). That said, both are FLEX considerations against Texans defense giving up the 5th-most fantasy points per game (24.2) to opposing running backs.
Matt Breida (NYG) didn't do much with his 4 rush attempts and 3 receptions, turning them into just 18 yards. Yet, he dominated the snap share (80.4%) and fell into the end zone to salvage his fantasy day. While he's not the most exciting option, his touchdown upside puts him firmly on the FLEX radar as long as Saquon Barkley is banged up.
Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson (CHI) are in a timeshare -- one that I'm fine to stay away from most weeks but has some appeal in Week 4. Their opponent, the Broncos, just gave up a historic pair of performances to Miami's backfield so it's not crazy to think both backs could enjoy FLEX-worthy days in Week 4. Of the two, I still prefer Herbert as he's playing more snaps and keeping pace in targets over the last two weeks.
Joshua Kelley (LAC) gets one more chance. Partly, because the Chargers have a bye in Week 5 and will likely get Austin Ekeler back in Week 6, but partly because he's now burned us twice! His Week 2 dud was excusable given the matchup (Tennessee allows the 3rd-lowest EPA per attempt), but last week's 2.2-point outing against the Vikings was horrific. The matchup in Week 4 is, again, great -- even Najee Harris found a way to fall forward for 65 yards against Vegas. I'd personally rather avoid him altogether, but guaranteed usage in a plus matchup is hard to pass up.
Samaje Perine (DEN) only played 32.2% of snaps in their blowout loss last week but notably received another red zone attempt -- his third in as many games. Throw in his receiving upside and Samaje Perine is a sneaky, albeit desperate, FLEX play against a truly atrocious Bears defense.

Tier 4: Sit

Breece Hall (NYJ) hasn't done much of anything outside of two long runs in Week 1 (those two runs make up 109 of his 154 total yards), but they've had some downright brutal matchups to start the season. It was nice to see him play 47.5% of snaps in Week 3 -- by far his most of the season -- but the matchup doesn't get any easier with the Chiefs coming to town in Week 4. I'd have to be in a pretty large pinch to consider starting him.
Dameon Pierce (HOU) saw a 53.6% snap share in Week 3 -- the first time he's been over 50% this season. He saw 4 red zone rushes for the second consecutive week and this time turned one of them into a score. And yet, I am completely fading him in Week 4. If Josh Jacobs couldn't run on this Steelers front, I'm not expecting Pierce to have much success. He could fall into the end zone but I'd rather chase upside elsewhere.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) has seen his snap share drop every week of the season, down to just 30.8% in Week 3. He's still good for 5-10 rushing attempts (heck, with Arthur Smith, Allgeier could randomly command 20 touches), but this is Bijan Robinson's backfield. There's almost no situation I'd start him against a Jags front allowing the 6th-lowest EPA per carry (-0.20).
Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Melvin Gordon, Kenyan Drake (BAL), basically, anyone in the Baltimore backfield should be on your bench until further notice. Edwards and Gordon both saw 40% of snaps last week, but it's anyone's guess what the share looks like upon Hill's return. The Browns are a force on defense and this Ravens backfield is a cluster. Easy sit(s).
David Montgomery (DET) will likely be a game-time decision for Thursday's game. He missed last week but practiced in a limited capacity on Tuesday. If he's cleared well before kickoff I'd be more inclined to start him, but with it being a Thursday game, I'd rather not risk it unless I truly had no other options.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

George Pickens (PIT) had another impressive outing in Week 3, securing 4 of 6 targets for 75 yards. His usage was super encouraging -- an 88.3% snap share and 100% route participation -- and he tied for the team lead with a 22.2% target share. He's quickly developing into Kenny Pickett's favorite target and slots in as a WR2 with upside ahead of a neutral matchup with Houston.
Tyler Lockett (SEA) had a quiet Week 3 but still played 80.3% of snaps, saw a 92.1% route participation, and garnered a 20.0% target share. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Seattle offense, so we have to live with some variance when starting Lockett. That said, he's still got a ton of upside, especially this week when he takes on a Giants secondary giving up the 3rd-highest EPA per dropback (0.27).
Christian Kirk (JAX) has risen from the dead the past two weeks after a disaster in Week 1. He's played 84.2% of snaps and commanded a 24.7% target share over that span, but it remains to be seen what his usage looks like when Zay Jones is healthy. A matchup with Atlanta isn't great, yet Kirk is playing a premium role right now. It's only a matter of time before Trevor Lawrence shakes off this early-season rust. He's a solid WR2 and great WR3 in Week 4.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) was already seen practicing this week -- a good sign for his status this weekend. He was the talk of the town after a WR2 finish in Week 1 before getting banged up in Week 2. Assuming he plays, Aiyuk can safely be reinserted into lineups as he played 84.8% of snaps and commanded a 28.6% target share in his lone healthy week. There's some risk involved with the injury, but the fact that he's already practicing makes me confident in trotting him out there as a WR2.
Adam Thielen (CAR) looks like a must-start player with Andy Dalton under center. He turned some heads with 9 targets and a score in Week 2 before going Sicko Mode in Week 3. The 33-year-old turned a 24.6% target share into 11 receptions, 145 yards, and a touchdown en route to a WR4 finish (26 points). The matchup is downright mouth-watering in Week 4 as Thielen will take on his former team, the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota has given up the third-most fantasy points per game (44.2) to opposing wide receivers, putting Thielen firmly into WR2 territory. He's my favorite start of the week.
Jakobi Meyers (LV) is a really, really good football player. Meyers has only played two games thus far but slots in as the WR22 overall. He looked sharp in his return to action last week, securing 7 of 12 targets while playing 86.6% of Vegas' snaps. Jimmy Garoppolo's concussion is something to monitor, but backup Aidan O'Connell played well enough in the preseason that I'm still starting Meyers in a soft matchup with the Chargers.
Tutu Atwell (LAR) might just be legit. He scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 3, finishing as the WR14 with 15.2 fantasy points. Atwell actually led Rams' receivers with a 28.1% target share, and it's becoming clear Sean McVay wants to get him the ball. Operating as LA's most explosive playmaker and with double-digit points in three straight games, he's in a great spot to produce against a Colts secondary allowing the 7th-most fantasy points per game (34.9) to opposing wide receivers.
Gabriel Davis (BUF) is eternally toeing the start/sit line. Despite pacing the Bills in snap share (78.5%) and route participation (90.6%), Davis only saw 4 targets go his way in Week 3. Though, as is often the case with Gabe Davis, that was all he needed to turn in a solid fantasy day. He finished with 35 yards and a touchdown -- his second consecutive game with a score. With a 53.5-point total set for Sunday's matchup with Miami, I want any piece of this game I can get my hands on. Consider him a low-end WR2 or FLEX with major upside.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Chris Godwin (TB) just isn't doing it for me right now. Despite playing the most snaps (81.1%) and garnering the 2nd-highest target share (21.3) on the team, he hasn't eclipsed 8.5 fantasy points yet this season. There is certainly reason for optimism -- mostly thanks to his 38.5% red zone target share -- but a matchup with New Orleans isn't ideal. I'm not thrilled about starting him at this point though he's due for some positive touchdown regression.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell (HOU) are worth a look in Week 4. Both played over 60% of snaps in Week 3, but the two went in opposite directions usage-wise. It looked like Collins had taken hold of the alpha receiver role, but he garnered just a 6.7% target share in Week 3 after commanding 23.2% in Week 1 and 2. Dell, meanwhile, saw his target share climb for the third consecutive week -- up to 24.1%. The Steelers have given up the 5th-most fantasy points per game (37.9) to opposing wide receivers, so there is room for both Texans to thrive in Week 4. That said, if I had to choose one, I'd go with the high-upside rookie, Dell.
Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton (DEN) may have lost by 50 on the field, but the two had solid fantasy days themselves. Sutton is looking like Russell Wilson's preferred target as he has a 29.0% target share in the two games both wideouts have been active. That said, Jeudy has only played 71% of snaps thus far and he saw a similar air yard share (29.7% to Sutton's 31.0%) in Week 2. They're both FLEX candidates in a good matchup against Chicago.
Michael Thomas (NO) has been incredibly consistent through three weeks, racking up 8.6, 9.0, and 8.0 fantasy points in his three games. His target share (25.7%) is encouraging, yet an 8.6 aDOT limits his upside. I'm not sure what to expect from Jameis Winston under center, but there's no question that Thomas has upside against a Tampa secondary allowing a pedestrian 32.5 fantasy points per game to wideouts.
Jordan Addison (MIN) didn't score a touchdown for the first time in Week 3. As a result, he finished as the WR43. I love Addison's profile, and he'll only get better as the season goes on, but he's only commanding a 14.3% target share and entrenched as (at best) the No. 3 option. It was encouraging to see him play over 70% of snaps for the first time last week. However, the Panthers have a strong enough secondary that he's merely a touchdown-or-bust FLEX option in Week 4.
Marquise Brown (ARI) scored for the second consecutive game last week and has now dropped 14.4 and 14.6 points in the last two games. He's commanding a healthy 27.5% target share and playing 91.2% of snaps, so the usage is there. That said, his upside is capped with Josh Dobbs under center, especially against the 49ers' defense. You can do worse if you're thin at WR, but there are a lot more guys I'd rather play than Hollywood this week.
Elijah Moore (CLE) continues to get peppered with targets, enough that he's firmly on the FLEX radar. With 9 looks in Week 3, Moore is now tied with Amari Cooper for the team lead in target share (25.0%). The difference between the two is that Moore's don't come in very advantageous positions for fantasy production. Moore is seeing a 7.6 aDOT on the season and hasn't gotten a red zone look the last two weeks. He's a fine play in full-point PPR formats but otherwise can be sat.
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) doesn't seem to be enjoying life in the Titans offense with Ryan Tannehill under center. Despite commanding 30.9% of the team's targets through three weeks, Hopkins has yet to have a weekly finish inside the top 25 receivers. The Bengals' secondary has been pretty solid thus far, but you could do a lot worse than Hopkins in Week 4 thanks to his usage. He's a low-end WR3 and a major floor-play.
Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston (LAC) both have an opportunity to become fantasy-relevant with Mike Williams out for the year. In the short term, I prefer Palmer. Through three weeks, Palmer's played 61.5% of snaps compared to Johnston's 23.4% and commanded an 11.0% target share to Johnston's 6.8%. That said, either would make for a viable dart throw against a soft Vegas secondary.

Tier 4: Sit

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) is really difficult to trust as long as Zach Wilson is behind center. Despite playing 96.7% of snaps and commanding a 32.1% target share in Week 3, he only finished as the WR48 (7.3 points). If Trevor Siemian were to take over quarterback duties, Wilson would be a borderline must-start. For now, let him hang out on your bench against a tough Chiefs defense.
Zay Flowers (BAL) has been busy in his young career and is locked into a near-every-down role after playing 93.1% of snaps in Week 3. He's commanded a 29.8% target share thus far but only a 21.2% air yard share. He's mostly used in the short to intermediate part of the field and that limits his fantasy upside. Still, that isn't why we're sitting him this week -- that would be matchup-based. The Browns have given up the lowest EPA per dropback (-0.60) and the fewest fantasy points per game (14.9) to receivers, so keep the prized rookie stashed on your bench this week.
Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed (GB) are just a giant shrug for me. With Watson back, I have no idea how this receiving corps shakes out. Can Jordan Love support three fantasy wideouts? My guess would be no, especially now that Aaron Jones is healthy. If I had to bet, I'd say Reed is the odd man out, but I don't feel confident starting any of them with so much uncertainty.
Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson (WSH) can be left on your bench this week. Neither did much of anything in their blowout loss last week despite both playing over 80% of snaps. Washington is an 8.5-point road underdog against the Eagles, and I have no faith in Sam Howell on the road against that defense. Better days are ahead for the Commanders' pass-catchers...just not this Sunday.
D.J. Moore (CHI) salvaged a brutal Week 3 with a late touchdown, but I have no confidence in him replicating that in Week 4. Even though I'm optimistic about Fields, I don't feel the same about Moore. That mostly has to do with the matchup. Moore will likely see a lot of Patrick Surtain II this week -- arguably the best cornerback in the game. He's an easy sit in what should be a run-heavy script for Chicago.
Drake London (ATL) can't be trusted in this Atlanta offense. After a strong Week 2, London (predictably) regressed in Week 3 despite the Falcons throwing more than usual. Even with him playing nearly 90% of snaps, I can't get behind starting London unless you're absolutely desperate. Even then, you can surely find a better option off the waiver wire.

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Lineup Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Pat Freiermuth (PIT), welcome to the season! After duds in Weeks 1 and 2, Freiermuth finally paid off for fantasy managers with 11.6 points in Week 3. He only saw 4 targets but turned that into 41 yards and a score. For a tight end, that's about all you can ask for. Houston is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game (10.2) to tight ends, making Freiermuth a solid TE1 coming off his best game of the season.
Hunter Henry (NE) came back to Earth in Week 3 but remains a formidable starting tight end going forward. Despite the 2.7-point dud, Henry still slots in as the TE3 on the year. His usage remained strong in Week 3 as he played 85.5% of snaps and commanded an 18.5% target share. Dallas is a pretty tough matchup for tight ends, but Henry has as much touchdown upside as anyone. Start him with confidence.
Tyler Higbee (LAR) might be back. Although Higbee's snap share (92.3%) was great in Weeks 1 and 2, he only garnered an 11.2% target share and a 6.3 aDOT. He still saw a ton of snaps (96.2%) in Week 3, but his target share (15.6%) and aDOT (9.1) bumped up to more fantasy-relevant levels. I still want to see some red zone usage from Higbee, but it's hard not to start him coming off a solid week with the Colts' soft defense on deck.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Kyle Pitts (ATL) is my least-favorite player to rank, every single week. He led the team with a 23.7% target share and 34.9% air yard share in Week 3...and racked up a whopping 6.2 fantasy points. His quarterback play and offensive scheme make him almost impossible to trust, but at such a volatile position, I won't blame you for taking a swing on him. It doesn't hurt that the Jags have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points (13.3) to tight ends.
Jake Ferguson (DAL) is someone I'm just going to keep beating the drum for until he pops off. Ferguson, again, commanded a strong target share (19.4%) and saw another red zone target in Week 3. Yet Ferguson, again, failed to score double-digit fantasy points. The bar isn't very high for a starting tight end, so you could do worse playing someone with the most red zone targets (9) in the league.
Taysom Hill (NO) didn't see the kind of usage I was hoping for in Week 3, but he's back on my radar in Week 4 with Derek Carr hurt. Hill was only on the field for 30% of snaps last week, and the return of Alvin Kamara won't help him in that department. Still, he possesses real touchdown upside with three red zone rushes in the last two weeks. For tight ends, that's about all you need to warrant fantasy consideration.
Luke Musgrave (GB) has been trending upward and is one of the top tight end streamers this week. His playing time continues to tick up as he played 87.3% of snaps in Week 3. That said, he's likely to see his 18.6% target share dip with Christian Watson and Aaron Jones back. You could do better, but you could also do a lot worse.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) disappointed in Week 3, but he has a chance to break out this week. Though he played a season-low 49.2% of snaps in Buffalo's blowout win, I have a hunch the Bills will need him this week. Miami has given up the 8th-most fantasy points per game (11.5) and the 6th-highest aDOT (7.7) to opposing tight ends. That, coupled with Buffalo's 28.25 implied team total, gives the rookie a ton of upside in Week 4.

Tier 4: Sit

David Njoku (CLE) saw a 12.9% target share in Week 3. More concerning: Njoku saw a 1.7% air yard share in Week 3. He had an aDOT of 1.0 and hasn't seen a red zone target since Week 1. I can't get myself to start a player with such little upside, especially against a Ravens defense that has given up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points (2.8) to opposing tight ends.
Zach Ertz (ARI) saw his target share dip to 9.5% last week after commanding a 30.5% share in Weeks 1 and 2. I think he still has some value going forward, but there's no chance I'm starting him against the 49ers given his painstakingly low 6.3 aDOT.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.