Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1

You've drafted your team, made a few waiver wire adds before Week 1, and filled your roster.

All that's left is to sort out your starting lineup. Easy enough, right? Maybe not. That's where I can help.

FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections serve as a solid baseline for basic start/sit decisions. These projections should line up with your draft: Ja'Marr Chase is projected for a position-best 18.7 points in half-PPR scoring; he was the first player you drafted; you're starting him.

But when we pair those projections with some recent historical data, even further lines can be drawn. From there, factors like game environment, strength of opponent, and the latest news can help shape our start/sit decisions.

That's what I'll be doing each and every week, combining our projections and historical trends to decipher how likely a player is to deliver a start-worthy performance (Start%).

Below, you'll find every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers. These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

Here is the Week 1 fantasy football start/sit.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1

Quarterback

Start

Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
Trevor Lawrence took a step back last season, averaging 15.2 fantasy points across just 10 games. But he still flashed upside in spots, finishing as a top-12 quarterback in three of his last five full games -- a stretch where he averaged 20.2 fantasy points. Paired with a new offensive coordinator and another dynamic receiver, T-Law can look more like the QB1 he was being drafted as back in 2023. Considering Carolina allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs last season and ranked 30th in PFF's preseason secondary rankings, Lawrence is on the QB1 radar this week.

Drake Maye (NE)
Drake Maye is looking to build off a strong rookie season in Week 1 against the Raiders -- one which saw him score at least 17 fantasy points in seven of his 10 full games under center. He was fifth in quarterback rushing yards in such games, creating a rock-solid floor for fantasy. With major upgrades to New England's skill position group, there's a lot to like with this second-year signal caller. In Week 1, he's a low-end QB1 against a Vegas side which finished 2024 bottom 10 in adjusted pass defense.

Sit

Justin Fields (NYJ)
Justin Fields finished as the QB13 in consensus ADP, and I'm here for the hype. His rushing gives him legit QB1 upside -- something we saw in 2024 when Fields was a top 12 quarterback in three of his six weeks as a starter. But I view him as more of a floor play than a ceiling play against his former team in Week 1. The Steelers allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs in 2024, and they were sixth in yards per carry allowed to the position. In Week 1's only game with a total south of 40 points, Fields should be sat.

Justin Herbert (LAC)
Like Fields, I'm in on Justin Herbert this season -- just not in Week 1. In LA's first game sans Rashawn Slater, Herbert and company are up against a Chiefs defense that was top five in blitz rate and pressure rate last season. Herbert has failed to exceed 14 fantasy points in each of his previous three meetings with KC across the past two seasons, so it's hard to get excited about his prospects in 2025 when the Chiefs enter the year with PFF's second-ranked secondary. Keep Herbert stashed on your bench in Week 1.

Running Back

Start

J.K. Dobbins (DEN)
Denver's unofficial depth chart lists J.K. Dobbins as the starter over rookie RJ Harvey, making him the Broncos' running back to start for the time being. Dobbins is fresh off a 2024 campaign with the Chargers where he finished 17th at the position in fantasy points per game (13.5) and 11th in yards per carry (4.6). Behind PFF's No. 2 offensive line and up against a Titans defense that ranked 25th in adjusted run defense last season, Dobbins is set up well in Week 1 as the RB1 in a Sean Payton offense.

Jerome Ford (CLE)
Despite an ADP outside the top 140 coming into the season, Jerome Ford is worth a start in Week 1. He enters the year as Cleveland's de facto RB1 -- a role that has suited him well over the years. In the nine games in which Ford cleared a 50% snap rate last season, he averaged 11.2 fantasy points on 17.4 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game. In five games with Joe Flacco under center two seasons ago, Ford was the RB16 and saw a 9.5% target share. Ford should feast if he sniffs that kind of a workload against a Cincy defense that ranked 26th in adjusted run D last season and has a first-time NFL DC.

Tyrone Tracy (NYG)
The Giants may have used a fourth-round pick on a different running back, but Tyrone Tracy is the unquestioned top rusher in New York entering Week 1. For fantasy, that role elevates Tracy to RB2 status against a Commanders front that ranked 17th in adjusted run defense and allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to running backs in 2024. That sets Tracy up well, assuming his Week 1 role is close to his 2024 workload -- from Week 5 onward last season, Tracy was the RB16 and saw 21.1 adjusted opportunities per game. The converted wide receiver earned an 11.2% target share during that stretch, offering some upside alongside Russell Wilson after Russ fed Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris a combined 24.9% share of targets with the Steelers last season.

Sit

D'Andre Swift (CHI)
D'Andre Swift returns as the Bears' top back after finishing as the overall RB19 last season. After a slow start, Swift averaged an encouraging 12.7 fantasy points from Week 4 on, so I can understand the hype with a new offensive system in Chicago. The issue lies within that system -- Ben Johnson is familiar with Swift from his time in Detroit, and we have no idea how the veteran RB will be deployed after another inefficient year in 2024. Among 46 running backs with at least 100 attempts, Swift ranked 40th in EPA per carry and 41st in Rushing Success Rate. This could be more of a committee than we anticipated, so I'm content to sit Swift against a Minnesota side that finished second in adjusted run defense last season.

Isiah Pacheco (KC)
Isiah Pacheco enters 2025 looking to rekindle the spark that made him such a high draft pick leading into last season. After finishing as the RB15 in fantasy points per game in 2023, Pacheco's 2024 season was derailed by an early leg injury. Though he was able to return for KC's stretch run, he didn't look the same and took a backseat to Kareem Hunt -- Hunt out-carried Pacheco 28-13 across three postseason games. An offseason to get healthy might've been just what the doctor ordered for Pacheco to return to form in fantasy, but there's too much ambiguity to start him against a good D in Week 1.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt garnered a ton of hype leading into the season, skyrocketing his ADP inside the top 100 overall picks. There's opportunity for "Bill" in the wake of Washington trading Brian Robinson Jr., but I'm hesitant to start a rookie seventh-round pick in Week 1 on a team that has several capable backs. With Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. all ahead of Croskey-Merritt on the Commanders' depth chart, he's an easy fade for me against a Giants front that enters 2025 with PFF's No. 3 defensive line.

Wide Receiver

Start

Matthew Golden (GB)
With Christian Watson opening the season on IR and Jayden Reed nursing a Jones fracture in his foot, rookie first-rounder Matthew Golden could step into a primary role for one of the league's top offensive systems. Golden is listed as a starter on the Packers' unofficial depth chart, so we shouldn't be afraid to slot him into our starting fantasy lineups. Though we haven't seen a consistent fantasy WR emerge from Green Bay in recent years, Golden has the pedigree and opportunity to buck the trend. Detroit's secondary is tough, but Golden could be the top target for a Green Bay offense that has a 25.0-point implied total.

Rome Odunze (CHI)
Rome Odunze took a backseat to some of the other rookie receivers in last year's loaded class, but he still finished his inaugural Bears campaign with a pair of top-12 weekly finishes. He was second in the class in route participation and is a prime touchdown regression candidate after finishing fifth in end zone targets last season. While Rome's exact role is uncertain in a new offensive system, there's enough prospect pedigree and talent to assume he'll be a big part of Chicago's plans in 2025. He opens the season against a Vikings secondary that allowed the most fantasy points, fourth-highest target rate, and eighth-most yards per route run to wideouts last season. In 2024, Odunze commanded 17 targets across two games against Minnesota, further justifying some faith in his Week 1 outlook.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
Jaylen Waddle is looking to rebound from a disappointing 2024 campaign. After finishing as the WR16, WR7, and WR34 across his first three NFL seasons, Waddle fell to WR46 last season. He averaged single-digit fantasy points for the first time while his yards per route run plummeted to 1.53 after clearing the 2.5 mark the two seasons prior. Still, with Jonnu Smith out of the picture, it's fair to expect a bit of a bounceback from the 26-year-old. Waddle's track record when Tua's been healthy without Smith is still really strong, and Tyreek Hill isn't getting any younger. As such, Waddle can be confidently started against a Colts secondary that has improved but still finished 28th in adjusted pass defense a year ago.

Sit

Calvin Ridley (TEN)
Overall, I'm excited for what Calvin Ridley can do with rookie No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward under center. But it's hard enough to trust a rookie quarterback in his professional debut, let alone when that signal caller is on the road against PFF's No. 3 secondary -- one that helped the Denver Broncos finish second in adjusted pass defense and allowed the third-lowest target rate to wide receivers in 2024. Denver gave up a league-low 11 touchdowns to the position last season while the Titans have Week 1's lowest implied total (17.5 points). Better days should come for Ridley and the Tennessee offense, but it's hard to find much room for optimism against the Broncos this week.

Jameson Williams (DET)
Despite his breakout 2024 campaign, Jameson Williams again enters the season with question marks. Those concerns are more surrounding the offensive as a whole after losing their offensive coordinator in the offseason, although it's still fair to nitpick Jamo's consistency. He ended the year as the overall WR19, but Williams was still held to single-digit fantasy points six times in 15 games. Four of those came on the road -- something to bear in mind given Jared Goff's struggles outdoors. Wind could be a factor in Green Bay this week, and the Packers are far from a tough matchup. Green Bay surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs last season -- ranking in the top five in all of target rate, yards per route run, and average depth of target against the position.

Cooper Kupp (SEA)
Entering his age-32 season, Cooper Kupp is no longer a set-and-forget fantasy option. Now with the Seahawks, Kupp is expected to serve a complimentary role to third-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While there is room for multiple fantasy-relevant receivers in this offense, JSN is also a slot-heavy player, and that could push Kupp outside. That's not ideal for an aging receiver who is coming off two consecutive seasons under 2.00 yards per route run. Combine that with some mild skepticism surrounding quarterback Sam Darnold, and Kupp isn't someone I'm looking to start in Week 1.

Tight End

Start

Tucker Kraft (GB)
Tucker Kraft took hold of the starting tight end spot in Green Bay last season and didn't look back. He led all Packers pass catchers in snap rate and was second in route participation, amassing a healthy 15.2% target share. He led the team in red zone snap rate and red zone target share, helping him secure 7 touchdowns in his second NFL season. With the Packers' receiving corps a bit thin entering 2025, the 24-year-old could be primed for an even bigger offensive load. That could start as early as Week 1 when Green Bay hosts Detroit in a game with the week's second-highest over/under, making Kraft a clear start in fantasy.

Zach Ertz (WSH)
Zach Ertz enjoyed a resurgent season with Jayden Daniels at the helm, finishing as fantasy's TE8 while ranking top 10 at the position in total targets and touchdowns. Ertz was third among all tight ends in red zone target rate and figures to again be one of the position's top touchdown threats. The 34-year-old ended the year on a high note, too, securing 11 of 16 targets for 104 yards in Washington's NFC Championship loss to Philly. That bodes well for his Week 1 outlook, especially in one of the slate's premier game environments. Based on last season's data, this Giants-Commanders game is projected to be the second-fastest paced game in Week 1 -- one that could see even more scoring than the 45.5-point over/under suggests. With Washington rocking a 26-point implied total, Ertz has touchdown upside in addition to his steady volume. He's a low-end TE1.

Sit

Evan Engram (DEN)
Evan Engram's final Jaguars campaign saw him appear in only nine games and average just 7.3 fantasy points. That came following consecutive TE1 seasons in 2022 and 2023, so I can understand the optimism behind his move to Denver. But the Broncos weren't an especially potent offense last season, ranking just 16th in adjusted offense and 18th in raw pass rate. There's certainly a world where Engram becomes the No. 2 target for Bo Nix, but there's just not a ton of upside in Week 1 with the team favored by more than a touchdown. Tennessee was sneaky-strong versus tight ends last season, too, giving up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per target to the position.

Jake Ferguson (DAL)
Jake Ferguson emerged as a reliable fantasy tight end in 2023 but took a step back with Dak Prescott missing much of the 2024 season. While Dak is back in 2025, the Cowboys also upgraded their receiving options by trading for George Pickens. That should help the offense as a whole but could hurt Ferguson's fantasy stock. Even in his TE8 season back in 2023, Ferguson caught just 5 touchdowns and averaged 1.46 yards per route run; he saw the seventh-most targets at the position. Assuming those targets dip with Pickens in town, Ferguson's likely to be a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option in 2025. Considering Dallas has a meager 19.5-point implied total against Philly's top-ranked defense, this isn't the week to start Ferguson.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.