Touchdown Regression: Which Wide Receivers Should Score More and Less in 2025?

Each and every year, I dig into expected touchdown numbers to help identify which players should score more (or less) often in an upcoming NFL season based on historical data.

This helps inform fantasy football and sports betting decisions for me, personally, because the math tends to win out in the long-term when it comes to touchdown variance.

This year, I went ahead and foregrounded all the usual ins and outs of touchdown regression, and now I can get right to the application for this year's crop of wide receivers.

So, using various stats for WRs from the 2024 season, here's a breakdown of who should score more (and less) frequently on a per-target basis in 2025.

Wide Receiver Regression Candidates for 2025

This is a look at all WRs (with at least 25 targets), their receiving touchdown total, their expected touchdown (xTD) number, the differential between the two -- as well as touchdown rate, xTD rate, and the difference as measured by TD or xTD per target.

There are a lot of names we could dig into, but let's highlight some of the more notable ones.

Wide Receivers Who Should Score More Often in 2025

Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle found the end zone just twice last year on 83 targets, but the math says that he should've scored around 4.8 times, a touchdown rate (touchdowns per target; TD%) 3.4 points higher than his actual output.

Since 2016, there have been 389 wide receivers to clear 700 receiving yards. Two of them failed to score, and only 16 more of them scored fewer than three times. Of these, 16 had a follow-up season with at least 50 targets, and they averaged 5.1 scores the next year as a whole.

Waddle also saw 11 red zone targets. The 317 wideouts with 700-plus yards and double-digit red zone targets since 2016 have averaged 6.6 touchdowns.

numberFire's fantasy football projections peg Waddle for 110.8 targets.

Waddle still has tough sledding to get close to double-digit touchdowns, of course, but he shouldn't be flirting with the bottom of the league in terms of scoring rate again, and he rates out as one of the most obvious regression candidates at the position.

Puka Nacua

For as great of a season Puka Nacua had, he underperformed as a touchdown scorer, reaching the end zone just 3 times through the air despite 990 yards.

Based on yardage alone, he should've scored around 8.7 times as a receiver, and from his EPA numbers, he should've scored 5.7 times. Across all my stat averages, Nacua should've scored 6.2 times, good for an xTD differential of -3.2 and a TD% over expected of -3.1%.

With 13 red zone targets and 106 total targets, Nacua's usage was pretty great. Since 2016, 159 wideouts have had 100+ targets, 950+ yards, and 12+ red zone targets.

They averaged 7.8 touchdowns, and only 10 of them had fewer than 4 touchdowns, putting Nacua in some unfortunate rare territory.

George Pickens

Albeit in three more games than Nacua played, George Pickens had a very similar stat line to Puka's: 103 targets, 900 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 16 red zone targets to Nacua's 106, 990, 3, and 13 red zone targets.

But hold on -- Pickens is changing teams, going from the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Dallas Cowboys, so we can't really trust the data, right?

That's not really the case.

Since 2016, I have 31 qualified WRs who underperformed their xTD% and who changed teams while accruing 75+ targets the next year in my database.

Of those, 58.1% of them increased their TD% the following year. But among the 20 outlier underachievers (i.e. those who underperformed by at least 1.0 percentage point), which Pickens is, 65.0% of them increased their TD% the following season.

These are basically the same as the full sample (61.4% and 68.0%, respectively).

With 119.0 projected targets for Pickens, there is a lot of room to grow for him as an end zone threat in a new offense.

Jerry Jeudy

A bit of a mea culpa on this one, but I didn't realize that Jerry Jeudy logged 1,229 yards last season, ranking sixth in the league. I remember the 235-yard outburst against his former Denver Broncos, but perhaps the reason I didn't piece together the yardage total was that Jeudy went for 100+ yards in only three games last year.

And he scored just four times (he had three of them in a four-game span from Week 10 to Week 13 after scoring in Week 1).

Since 2016, just 69 wideouts have gone over 1,200 yards, and only three of them scored 4 or fewer times. The other two who did so were Julio Jones in 2017 and Adam Thielen in 2017. They scored 8 and 9 touchdowns the next year on 170 and 153 targets, respectively.

Jeudy is projected for 124.4 targets with a lot of question marks at quarterback. But we do have to note that the Cleveland Browns ranked 32nd in adjusted passing efficiency last season, and Jeudy was still able to crack 1,200 yards (which we definitely all know and remember now).

Rome Odunze

Rome Odunze tied for sixth in the league with 15 end zone targets, per NextGenStats, and 23rd in red zone targets in 2024 as a rookie.

Despite that elite high-leverage workload, Odunze scored just 3 times on 101 targets. He had 734 yards and 54 catches for a weak catch rate of 58.8% despite only two drops.

A lot of opportunity existed for Odunze, and now without Keenan Allen and a new head coach in Ben Johnson, Odunze could be set for a Year 2 breakout.

Wide Receivers Who Should Score Less Often in 2025

Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase led all WRs with 17 scores a year ago, and nobody else had more than Terry McLaurin's 13 receiving TDs.

With that said, Chase did pace the league in xTDs (10.8), but only 13 WRs since 2016 have had at least 13 receiving scores in a season and then also had at least 75 targets the next year, too.

That subset averaged a still-good 8.6 touchdowns the following year, but 8 of the 13 had single-digit touchdown totals, and only one (Mike Evans in 2021) had more than 11 touchdowns the next year.

We could effectively see Chase's touchdowns cut in half (from 17 to 8.6, per the sample average) and still have it be a reasonable outcome. Based on his xTD% last year and his target projection from numberFire, he'd be slated for 12.1 scores -- still a drop of 4.9 touchdowns.

Chase's elite red zone usage (36 red zone targets!) can help fend off the worst-case outcome in terms of regression, yet we have to assume he scores less often in 2025.

Terry McLaurin

McLaurin flashed last year alongside rookie Jayden Daniels. McLaurin turned 117 targets into 82 catches, 1,096 yards, and 13 touchdowns.

The underlying data, though, pegged McLaurin for just 7.1 touchdowns, thus indicating a +5.9 TD over expectation outcome for him.

Fundamentally, though, the yards (in a vacuum suggesting 9.8 xTD) and EPA (6.7 xTD) were much more promising for McLaurin than some other measures, especially red zone targets (he had 15 red zone targets, usually indicating around 5.1 xTD with no other context).

Of the 23 wideouts to score 12+ times since 2016, none have had fewer than 15 red zone targets, and that sample averaged 23.3 red zone targets, so he really skated by on the bare minimum in terms of high-leverage looks.

Mike Evans

Mike Evans and touchdown regression are pretty much synonymous at this point. He's had at least 11 touchdowns in four of his past five seasons.

In his last five seasons coming off of an overachieving year, he actually increased his scoring rate in three of the five.

However, two of those were by +0.4 points exactly, meaning his scoring rate effectively stayed the same.

In the two follow-up seasons where his TD% declined, he fell by 3.3 and 7.6 points, scoring 5 and 6 touchdowns, respectively.

While history shows us that we shouldn't be floored if Evans crosses into the double-digit touchdown territory again, he is at risk of an eventual disappointment as a scorer.

Tee Higgins

Another Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver makes this list, as Tee Higgins had a stellar campaign in 2024.

Higgins went for 10 touchdowns on 109 targets with 911 yards. Based solely on his yardage, his xTD number was 7.9, and he was at an 7.8 from a red zone target standpoint.

However, his number of targets, first downs, and EPA dragged down his xTD total to 6.8, giving him a +3.2 in the TD over expectation column.

Only 11 of the 47 WRs to score 10+ times since 2016 had fewer than 1,000 yards. The 10 with a follow-up season averaged 7.9 touchdowns the next season.

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith found the end zone eight times in 2025 on 89 targets, a 9.0% TD%.

His xTD% worked out to 6.2%.

Smith's yardage output (833) was still pretty strong for an 8-TD season (it's tied to an xTD output of 7.1), but the rest of the data dragged down his xTD total to 5.5.

Most notably, Smith failed to crack 90 targets, something that only 15 of 126 WR seasons since 2016 with 8+ touchdowns can say.

Further, 85% (17 of 20) wide receivers to post a 9.0% TD% or higher saw a drop in their TD% the next year, falling by an average of 3.5 points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.