Fantasy Football: Does Isiah Pacheco Have RB1 Upside in 2023?

Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco may have entered the NFL as a seventh-round pick, but he played well enough to unseat a former first-round running back in his rookie season. Pacheco had already begun to usurp Clyde Edwards-Helaire by the time the former LSU back landed on the injured reserve with an ankle injury last year and eventually contributed more to the Chiefs' offense in the playoffs than Edwards-Helaire did at any point during the season.

But the new season brings with it new questions. With reversed roles, can Pacheco stave off Edwards-Helaire? Will the Chiefs' backfield devolve into a three-man committee? Or can Pacheco emerge as the team's hands-down RB1, a role we haven't seen occupied since Kareem Hunt's 2017 and 2018 seasons?

Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Football Projection

All projections via numberFire.com.

2023 Projected Fantasy Points: 182.8 (128.5 in 2022)
numberFire Positional Ranking: RB26
2023 Projected Stats:

• 236.5 carries
• 1,065.2 rushing yards
• 9.0 rushing touchdowns
• 17.5 receptions
• 129.7 receiving yards
• 1.0 receiving touchdown

Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Football Outlook

The Best Offense in Football

The biggest thing any Kansas City running back has going for them is that they get to play for the best offense in the league. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, their offense has finished no worse than sixth in the NFL in points scored in any given season. Their offense works, meaning any running back that gets consistent opportunities should be good in fantasy football.

Getting those opportunities has been the issue for Chiefs running backs in recent years, though. After the team parted ways with 2017 rushing leader Kareem Hunt, they haven't settled on any one back to lead the charge. Instead, their offense has funneled increasingly through Mahomes. The Chiefs pass the ball a ton, sapping rushing opportunities out of their offense. Since 2019, their offense has ranked 27th, 23rd, 20th, and 25th in total rush attempts across the league and have finished no better than 16th in the league in rushing yards.

For a Chiefs running back to truly thrive in fantasy football, they either need to create a symbiotic relationship with Mahomes as a pass-catcher -- a la Jerick McKinnon last year -- or assert themselves as far and away the best option the team has in the rushing game. Pacheco only caught 17 passes in all of his rookie season, but we did at least see him start to carve out a productive role in their rushing offense by the end of the season.

A Rookie Season to Build On

As with most seventh-round rookies, Pacheco's rookie season started slowly. He did handle a surprising 12 carries in the season opener, but mostly shared time (or even sat behind) Edwards-Helaire as the incumbent starter. He gradually earned more and more work, though, and took over the lead back role over the final 9 games of the regular season.

In those 9 regular season games, Pacheco toted the ball 126 times for 633 yards (5.02 yards per carry) and 4 touchdowns. The Chiefs were impressed enough with his performance that he formed the backbone of their rushing game in the playoffs, as well. In their 3 playoff games he rushed the ball 37 times for 197 yards and a touchdown.

He was very efficient as a rusher once he earned the primary back job, averaging 92.2 rushing yards per game during that time. Playing alongside Patrick Mahomes certainly helped there; only 11 backs with over 100 carries in the league faced stacked boxes less often than Pacheco's 18.24% rate, but his efficiency was more than just a byproduct of playing alongside Mahomes. His 0.45 Rushing Yards Over Expectation per Attempt ranked 14th-best among all qualifying backs in the league.

Pacheco was clearly the Chiefs' best running back on the ground last year. Unfortunately, that still didn't result in a reliable workload; he averaged just 13.5 rushes per game after taking on the starting job, which would have ranked 18th in the league. With no involvement in the passing game (he had roughly one target per game played), all of Pacheco's fantasy production stemmed from efficient plays and touchdowns. That's perfectly fine for a player you likely found on waiver wires in season-long leagues last year, but is much scarier when it comes to actually using a draft pick on him in 2023 fantasy drafts. So should you invest a draft pick in him for the upcoming fantasy season?

Peering Into the Future

Pacheco has a path to becoming a true fantasy RB1, but it won't be easy.

Before anything else, he'll need to firmly establish himself as the only guy in town when it comes to the Chiefs' rushing attempts. The team just doesn't have a reason to take pass attempts away from Patrick Mahomes, so he'll need to earn every carry opportunity available. If Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns and starts eating into his already-sparse 13.5 carries per game, it could spell doom for Pacheco's fantasy value.

Staving off the other Chiefs running backs in the rushing game would be a return to the status quo for Pacheco. numberFire's projections have that essentially being the case, basing his RB26 ranking off of an average of just over 13 carries and 1 reception per game. Based on FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, that means Pacheco is already something of a value in fantasy drafts this summer. Where numberFire's projections have him as the RB26 for the upcoming season, he's currently coming off draft boards as the RB30 on average with the 73rd overall pick.

In other words, both his current projection and the public's opinion of Pacheco seem to be completely ruling out the potential of him developing as a pass-catcher this season, and tapping into the passing game in Mahomes' offense can pay massive dividends in fantasy football.

Last year alone, McKinnon caught 56 passes for 512 yards and 9 touchdowns. The 30-year-old barely played in the ground game, amassing just 72 carries during the regular season, but still had serious fantasy value because of his production in the receiving game.

McKinnon will be 31 this season and has missed multiple seasons with injuries during his career. If McKinnon is the only player standing in the way of Pacheco earning more work in the passing game, that feels like a hedge worth gambling on in fantasy drafts this season.

Takeaways

Pacheco had a strong debut campaign in the league and appears on track to pick up where he left off a season ago -- as the team's primary ball-carrier. Just based on that role alone, numberFire has the second-year back projected as the RB26 in fantasy football this year while the public is drafting him around the RB30 mark in drafts so far this summer.

That makes him a decent value already without even considering the potential he has for growth in the Chiefs' abundant passing game. It wouldn't be too surprising if he pries some receiving game work away from Jerick McKinnon this season, vaulting himself up the running back fantasy leaderboards in the process.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.