Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates for Week 4

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in NFL DFS, or which NFL prop bets to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

While looking ahead at the games across the NFL, which running backs should we buy low on ahead of this week?

All fantasy football projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics mentioned are via NextGenStats or Pro Football Focus unless stated otherwise.

Running Backs to Buy Low in Fantasy Football

Josh Jacobs, Packers

It's been a slow start to the season for Josh Jacobs, who is currently the RB18 in half-PPR formats with fewer than 15 fantasy points in each of his first three outings. The good news is that the Green Bay Packers are slated to face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

Across the first three weeks, the Cowboys are 22nd in schedule-adjusted run defense, and they are 27th in both target rate (24.4%) and yards per route run allowed (1.53) to RBs. Meanwhile, the first three opponents for the Packers (Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Cleveland Browns) are all ranked 10th or better in schedule-adjusted run defense to begin the season.

Given the matchup, our projections have Jacobs forecasted for the second-most rushing attempts (21.1), seventh-most rushing yards (85.8), and fourth-best chance to score a rushing touchdown (0.81) among RBs suiting up in Week 4.

Ashton Jeanty, Raiders

Saying that Ashton Jeanty has gotten off to a disappointing start to his rookie campaign would be an understatement, as the first-year back is currently the RB33 in half-PPR leagues. Despite that being the case, Jeanty has a favorable schedule over the next few weeks, beginning with a Week 4 clash against the Chicago Bears at home.

Along with the Bears residing at 28th in fantasy points per target (1.46) to RBs, they are 25th in rushing yards over expected per attempt allowed (0.69) and 24th in defensive rushing success rate (44.1%). Even though Jeanty is seeing only a 67.2% snap rate and 42.1% route rate, he's generating a 100.0% red-zone rushing share and 83.3% red-zone snap rate, and he should begin seeing an increased number of snaps at some point.

Lastly, Jeanty has taken on two teams that are 10th or better in schedule-adjusted run defense in the first three weeks to begin his career, so better days are ahead for the early first-round pick.

TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots

It remains to be seen when TreVeyon Henderson becomes the featured back for the New England Patriots, but I want to be aggressive in buying low on him in fantasy football before his breakout performance occurs. This is a perfect week for Henderson to have a notable outing -- or at least an increase in usage and production -- especially after Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson combined for three fumbles in New England's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.

In addition to Henderson having zero fumbles across his 667 touches in college, the Patriots desperately need more explosiveness in their offense, and they need to provide more help for Drake Maye, who is registering a formidable 0.11 expected points added per drop back and a 49.6% passing success rate. A home date against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 could be exactly what Henderson needs to gain some momentum, as Carolina is 26th in schedule-adjusted run defense.

The Panthers are also 21st in yards per route run (1.22) and 31st in rushing yards over expected per attempt allowed (1.54) to RBs, paving the way for Henderson to break off a couple of chunk plays if he gets more opportunities.

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