EPL Title Odds Update: Can Liverpool Hold Off Manchester City and Arsenal?

With 16 matches in the books for every team, we are quickly approaching the halfway point of the 2023-24 EPL season.

Some things have changed while some remain the same. Let's take a look at where the EPL title odds stand, per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the title odds for all 20 teams along with a breakdown of the main contenders and notable longshots.

Manchester City (-120)

Since our last update, City's odds of winning the title have shifted from -270 to -120.

The defending champions currently sit in fourth on the league table, four points behind first-place Liverpool. City are in the middle of one of their worst, if not their worst, run of form in the Pep Guardiola era. They have one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches.

Opponent quality has played a role. Their draws came against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham. Their loss was at an impressive Aston Villa side, who since then have gone on to also beat Arsenal. On the negative, their lone win in this stretch -- this past Sunday -- was against Luton Town and was far from a convincing result.

In summary, this is not the same Manchester City that we have come to know over the past seven seasons. Their expected goal (xG) difference per 90 of +0.99 -- per FBRef -- ranks second in the league, but over the past six seasons, City has never finished with an xG difference below +1.0 -- their average over that span is +1.39.

That said, City have been so dominant in recent seasons that even after taking a clear step back, they remain the favorites to win the league. Their current production falls below their lofty stands, but they still rank third in xG scored (30.6) and have allowed the second-fewest xG (14.7).

Most teams with City's underlying metrics would be thrilled. It's a testament to their excellence under Guardiola that City's current situation is being viewed as an underperformance.

The good news for City is that their schedule has finally taken a turn for the better. During the EPL's December fixture congestion -- between now and December 30th -- City have four matches, and none of them are against a team currently in the top half of the table.

The path is there for City to bounce back and return to the top of the table by mid-January, if not sooner.

Liverpool (+300)

City's loss has been Liverpool's gain. Since Matchweek 7, Liverpool's title odds have shifted from +650 to +300, and they remain in second-most-likely team to be crowned champions.

Liverpool are the current league leaders. They hold a one-point edge over Arsenal and a two-point lead on Aston Villa. They have lost just one EPL match this season -- versus Tottenham in late October -- and are undefeated in their nine matches since then.

Liverpool ranks first in xG scored (32.1) and have allowed the third-fewest xG (19.7). While the Reds are clearly one of the league's elite, they are overperforming expectations in both xG categories. They have netted 36 goals from 32.1 xG and have surrendered just 15 goals from 19.7 xG allowed. The second stat is particularly notable because Liverpool has conceded the same number of goals as Arsenal has despite surrendering 7.6 more xG.

For a team with four draws and three one-goal victories, that overperformance on defense is likely the difference between their position on top of the table and where City sit in fourth.

Looking ahead, Liverpool's schedule during a busy December is not nearly as kind as City's. Between now and January 1st, the Reds play four matches -- vs. Manchester United, vs. Arsenal, at Burnley, and vs. Newcastle -- although the three toughest opponents in that span have to come to Anfield.

All in all, so far, so good for Liverpool, but things could look much different three weeks from now depending on how they handle the upcoming difficult slate of opponents.

Arsenal (+380)

Arsenal's odds of winning the title have also improved since Matchweek 7, shifting from +750 to +380. They remain the third-most-likely team to be crowned champions, but they have significantly closed the gap on City and slightly closed the gap on Liverpool, from an odds perspective.

One week ago, it was Arsenal on top of the table, but a 1-0 loss to an in-form Aston Villa side saw them surrender the top spot to Liverpool. That loss, the Gunners' second this season, ended a four-match winning streak.

Arsenal's success this season has been built on their defense. They rank fifth in xG amassed (29.0) but have allowed the fewest xG (12.1). The margin between their xG allowed and Liverpool's in third (7.6) is the same as the margin between Liverpool and Wolves in 16th.

They have slightly underperformed their expectations, conceding 15 times from their 12.1 xG allowed, but their defense has shown up in key fixtures this season -- most notably holding Aston Villa and City to a combined 1.1 xG. The Gunners have held 12 of their 16 opponents this season to 1.0 xG or fewer.

Arsenal's defense bodes well for their title chances. The team that has allowed the fewest xG has won the league five times in the past six campaigns. The Gunners' average xG allowed per match (0.75) ranks fourth-best over the past six seasons -- surpassed only by City in 2017-18 (0.62), 2018-19 (0.65), and 2021-22 (0.64).

Looking ahead, Arsenal faces a somewhat difficult schedule in December. From now until December 31st, they will see four opponents, all of whom in the top half of the table. Their clash on the road against Liverpool highlights their fixture list, but they also have matches versus Brighton (eighth in the table), versus West Ham (ninth), and at Fulham (10th).

Arsenal has done a good job against lesser opposition this season, only once dropping points against a team ranked outside the top-10 in xG difference per 90. To return to the top of the table entering January, they will need to continue to do so while likely also needing to earn a result at Liverpool.

Aston Villa (+1800)

Since our last update, no team has improved their odds of winning the title more than Aston Villa has. Their odds have shifted from +10000 to +1800 since Matchweek 7.

In that span, they have lost just one game (at Nottingham Forest in early November). After that loss, while staring down a difficult schedule, is when Villa kicked things into gear. In their five matches since, they are undefeated, with wins over Tottenham, Manchester City, and Arsenal.

Their win over Tottenham was fortunate -- they finished with fewer shots (18-15), shots on target (7-5), corners (9-3), and crosses (22-16). They lost the xG battle, too, 2.3-1.7.

Their win over Manchester City, however, was a masterclass as Villa finished with a decisive lead on shots (22-2), shots on target (7-2), corners (6-0), and crosses (17-7). They won the xG battle, as well, 2.3-0.6.

Their win over Arsenal was less convincing. Villa finished behind on shots (10-12) and crosses (9-10) and was even on shots on target (3-3) and corners (3-3). They lost the xG battle, 1.4-0.6.

In a way, those three matches are a great snapshot of Villa's season -- they are capable of the amazing and the disappointing. Since Matchweek 5, all of their dropped points have come against teams ranked 13th or lower on the table. In a seven-day span, they tied Bournemouth while defeating City and Arsenal.

It all amounts to a third-place position on the league table, two points behind Liverpool in first. The underlying metrics say Aston Villa is a contender for a top-four finish but not for the title. They rank sixth in xG difference per 90 (+0.41).

As it stands, they are in a tier of their own -- well-below Arsenal, City, and Liverpool but miles ahead of the next closest team, Tottenham (+4400). They are the most likely side to challenge the big three for the league title, but they are still somewhat of a longshot to do so.

The good news for Villa is that their schedule -- deservedly after back-to-back games against City and Arsenal -- is about to get easier. To finish out December, they face Brentford (11th), Sheffield United (20th), Manchester United (6th), and Burnley (19th).

On current form, Villa are favorites to take all three points from those four fixtures, but they have slipped up versus lesser opposition multiple times already this season. Consistency will be key for Villa, and while they're still longshots to win a league title, they have a good chance to get into next season's Champions League (-140 to finish top four).

Longer Shots:

Tottenham (+4400)

Since our last update, Tottenham's odds have shifted from +2500 to +4400. Two months ago, they sat in third, but their xG metrics were that of a mid-table side. At first, they continued to defy those metrics, winning four in a row from late September through October and reaching the top of the table. Since then, it has all been downhill.

Over their last six games, they have lost four, drawn one, and won one. Their 4-1 win over Newcastle on Sunday was desperately needed and a reminder of what Spurs are capable of. They currently sit in fifth, seven points out of first, but their underlying metrics still indicate that is too high. On xG difference per 90 (+0.5), they rank 10th -- one spot behind Everton. Spurs' main focus is fighting for a top-four spot.

Newcastle (+16000)

Like Spurs, Newcastle's odds of winning the title have fallen significantly since Matchweek 7, shifting from +3200 to +16000. They currently sit in seventh, 11 points behind Liverpool in first.

Their underlying metrics indicate that they should be challenging for a top-four spot. Their xG difference per 90 (+0.62) ranks fourth, but inconsistency has held them back, with a long injury list not helping.

Since the start of November, Newcastle has displayed highs and lows. They picked up wins over Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United, but the Magpies also lost to Bournemouth, Everton, and Tottenham. In any given match, they are capable of defeating the side across from them, but they have also proven that they are capable of the opposite, as well.

Manchester United (+19000)

Since Matchweek 7, United's odds of winning the title have shifted from +5000 to +19000. Like Newcastle, inconsistency has been a huge reason why. Remarkably, United have not drawn an EPL match this season, recording nine wins and seven losses.

Until recently, they had been relatively consistent in their inconsistency -- they narrowly beat lesser opposition and got crushed by better teams. That is, of course, a dangerous way to go through a season, and it finally caught up to them with a 3-0 loss to Bournemouth on Saturday, just three days after their best performance of the season in a 2-1 win over Chelsea.

United sit in sixth despite having scored only 18 goals this season -- they are the only team that ranks in the bottom half of the table in goals scored but in the top half on points. Their xG difference per 90 (-0.07) checks in 11th. As bad as things have been for United, they really should be much worse in terms of results. They are fortunate to be sitting in sixth and still alive in the race for a top-four finish.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.