EPL Title Odds: Can Anyone Catch Manchester City?

With six matches in the books for every team except Luton Town and Burnley, the first chapter of EPL season is behind us.

Some things have changed, some remain the same. Let's take a look at where the EPL title odds stand, per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the title odds for all 20 teams along with a breakdown of the top three favorites and notable longshots.

Manchester City (-270)

Six games down, 18 points secured. Death, taxes, and Manchester City under Pep Guardiola.

The defending champions picked up right where they left off and like clockwork are back on top of the league. They have generated a league-leading 2.26 expected goals per 90 minutes -- per FBref -- and have outperformed that, scoring 2.67 goals per 90. On the other end of the pitch, they have allowed just 0.5 goals per 90 from 0.77 xG allowed per 90 and lead the league in both categories.

Erling Haaland's eight goals are three more than the next-closest player in the league, Son Heung-min, and double a group of five players who are tied for third. He is the overwhelming betting favorite to win his second consecutive Golden Boot (-370).

The one caveat to City's domination is the schedule they have played. Through six games, they have not faced a big-six side. Their toughest match was against Newcastle, which they won, 1-0. Outside of that, their opponents have been Burnley, Sheffield United, Fulham, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest. They have faced only two sides in the top half of the table.

City has a long enough history of dominance that they can be expected to also perform well against better opposition, but it is still the last remaining question. They will have the chance to answer it very soon. After they face Wolves in Matchweek 7, City's next three opponents are Arsenal, Brighton, and Manchester United.

If they make it through those games unscathed, their title odds will almost certainly improve, and we could be headed for a runaway.

Liverpool (+650)

Since the start of the season, Liverpool has improved their title odds from +850 to +650 and leapfrogged Arsenal to claim second place on the odds list.

They finished last season in fine form, with an 11-game unbeaten run in EPL fixtures that included seven wins. Through six games this season, they have extended that unbeaten run, with five wins and a draw. They sit in second place on the table, two points behind City and one ahead of Tottenham.

Their expected goal numbers back up their results. They rank second in xG per 90 (2.20) and fifth in xG allowed per 90 (1.17). Like City, they have overperformed their expected goal metrics, with 15 goals scored from 13.2 xG and 5 goals conceded from 7.0 xG allowed. Darwin Nunez and Mohamed Salah have three goals each, and Nunez continues to excel despite playing limited minutes, ranking third in xG per 90 (1.06).

Liverpool has played a slightly tougher schedule than City has. They drew with Chelsea in their opening fixture and since then have beaten Bournemouth (17th on the table), Newcastle (8th), Aston Villa (6th), Wolves (16th) and West Ham (7th). In their next two fixtures, they will face Tottenham and Brighton before four consecutive games against lesser opposition.

Liverpool is the only side other than City to win the league since 2017. If they can regain the form they have displayed under Jurgen Klopp in the past, they are capable of challenging City if the defending champions slightly slip up. If they make it through their next two matches without dropping points, they have a clear path to entering their Matchweek 13 clash with City as challenges for the title.

Arsenal (+750)

Arsenal have seen their title odds move from +500 before the season to +750 now, sliding down one spot from second-favorite to third-favorite. They are the final team in a three-team tier of non-long-shot winners at this point in time. Before the season began, there were six teams with odds better than +2900, now there are only three.

Unlike Liverpool, Arsenal ended last season on a sour note after stumbling near the final hurdle and watching Manchester City pass them to win the league. With the experience gained from that campaign, the hope for Arsenal this year was for them to be a true title contender and be City's primary competition. So far, that hasn't happened.

Through six games, Arsenal sit in fifth place, four points behind City, with four wins and two draws. Their highlight thus far is a 3-1 win over a struggling Manchester United side. Their draws, which both came at home, were against Tottenham and Fulham. Their other three wins, which came against Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, and Brentford, were all by a one-goal margin. It hasn't been a bad start from Arsenal, but it also hasn't been the start of a side that looks like it can truly challenge City for the EPL crown.

Arsenal's expected goal metrics are good but not great. They rank eighth in xG per 90 (1.84) and second in xG allowed per 90 (0.91) for an xG difference per 90 of 0.94 that ranks fourth. Their actual results are right in line with their xG metrics, with 11 goals from 11.1 xG and 6 goals conceded from 5.5 xG allowed.

While they aren't where they want to be, Arsenal is still enjoying a solid start to their season. They are undefeated in all competitions and well within striking distance of City. What they are lacking is a convincing result against an elite side. They will get their chance to do just that when they face Manchester City in Matchweek 8. A victory would put them right back on track to accomplishing their preseason goals. A defeat could leave them seven points behind City before the middle of October. No pressure.

Longer Shots:

Tottenham (+2500)

Tottenham have started the season strong under new manager Ange Postecoglou. They sit third on the table, even on points with Arsenal. They could be due for some regression, though, as their expected goal metrics are closer to that of a midtable side. Spurs rank ninth in expected goal difference per 90 minutes (+0.36), ninth in xG per 90 (1.81), and 10th in xG allowed per 90 (1.45).

Newcastle (+3200)

For a Magpies side hoping to take the next step this season after finishing fourth last year, it has been a disappointing start for Newcastle in terms of results. They have three wins and three losses through six games and sit in eighth. However, their underlying metrics are promising. They rank third in xG difference per 90 minutes (+0.96), and fourth in both xG per 90 (2.02) and xG allowed per 90 (1.06). Those stats are even more impressive considering the difficulty of the schedule they've faced, which includes games against Manchester City, Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Brighton.

Brighton (+3400)

Outside of their lone loss to West Ham, Brighton have enjoyed an excellent start to their campaign. They sit in third on the table and lead the league in goals scored (18). They rank third in xG per 90 (2.08) but rank seventh in xG difference per 90 (0.44) because of a defense that ranks 12th in xG allowed per 90 (1.65). They picked up big wins over Manchester United and Newcastle but will need to cut down on the chances they are conceding if they want to challenge for the title.

Manchester United (+5000)

A season that began with hope has gone wrong for United quickly. Their odds of winning the title have dropped sharply -- from +900 to +5000. Dealing with injuries and off-field turmoil, United have barely won their three matches against lesser opposition, winning all three by a one-goal margin. They have lost each of their three matches against Tottenham, Arsenal, and Brighton by a two-goal margin. They rank 11th in xG difference per 90 (-0.05). As it stands, it looks like United will have to focus on finishing in the top four instead of competing for a title.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.