EPL Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/2/24: Spurs Aiming to Defeat Rival Hammers

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

We've got some midweek fixtures in the Premier League as we head toward the end of the season. These matches will mean a lot for most of the teams, especially those at the bottom of the table.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this match day?

EPL Betting Picks: Tuesday 4/2/24

Everton at Newcastle (2:30 PM ET )

Newcastle Moneyline (-110)

Newcastle cashed a ticket for those of us who backed them on Saturday, so we'll back them at home again today.

It may appear that Newcastle got lucky with their frantic comeback on Saturday. They trailed 3-1 in the second half but went on to win 4-3. But this was a deserved victory based on what expected goals (xG) tells us. They created 4.1 xG and conceded just 1.4 in their win over West Ham, per FBRef's model.

This continued Newcastle's solid home form. They are sixth in points per match at home while also being third in xG differential per 90 minutes in home matches.

Today, Newcastle will face a reeling Everton side, one that has won just one game in all competitions in 2024. They are in a relegation battle after their points deduction in November, and this stretch has not done anything to help quell that.

Even with Newcastle's injury crisis, they still can put out a respectable starting lineup. Harvey Barnes made his return on Saturday off the bench and scored, and he can slot in for the suspended Anthony Gordon.

I don't see Everton being able to get something from this match against Newcastle. With how well the Magpies play at home, I'm backing Newcastle in this game.

Tottenham at West Ham (3:15 PM ET)

Tottenham Moneyline (+105)

We've got a London derby between two fierce rivals for our second matchup. This one is looking like it will make the north part of the city happy.

Despite the Hammers sitting in seventh place in the league table, there are many concerns with this West Ham team. They have won just two of their last 11 league matches. Their underlying data is not good, either, as they have the fourth-worst xG differential in the league.

Spurs won on Saturday and should get a boost to their lineup. Micky van de Ven is expected to start, and he's been one of the best center backs in the Premier League this season. He's been a key to Spurs' success, as they've won 66.7% of their games when he's started.

Tottenham is sixth in xG differential per 90 minutes. They have won three of their last four matches and have the motivation of charging up the table with the possibility of playing in the Champions League next season.

It's pretty easy to like Tottenham at these +105 odds.

Player Props

Matheus Cunha to Score or Assist (+130): Wolves will travel to Burnley, who are one of the two worst teams in the league. Burnley have conceded the second-most goals and third-most xG.

That brings us to Matheus Cunha. The Wolves' forward has nine goals and six assists this season in 24 games. He averages 0.52 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes.

With this matchup, Cunha should have plenty of opportunities to both shoot and create chances. I'll take my chances of him contributing to a goal at the +130 odds.

Rodrigo Muniz to Score (+230): The goal-scorer with the best form in the Premier League isn't Erling Haaland or Mohamed Salah, it's Rodrigo Muniz.

Muniz scored on Saturday, which brought him to eight goals in his last eight matches. He's on the road in this one against Nottingham Forest, who have conceded the sixth-most goals in the league.

We can't expect Muniz to score in every game, but with how good he's been lately and with him facing a non-elite team, +230 is plenty good enough to bet on him to continue this run.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.