Soccer

EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 30: Can Newcastle Get the Job Done at Home?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 30: Can Newcastle Get the Job Done at Home?

We're back from the international break for some club soccer, as we have just nine games left in the Premier League season.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 30

West Ham at Newcastle (Saturday 8:30 AM ET)

Newcastle Moneyline (-120)

The first game on the slate gives a nice betting opportunity. It's an early kickoff, but the old adage that the early bird gets the worm could apply here.

It's been a disappointing season for Newcastle after they qualified for the Champions League last season. They are currently just 10th in the table, behind even West Ham. Their squad has suffered a lot of injuries throughout the season, which has put them in this mid-table position.

Despite being seventh in the table, West Ham are not very impressive when looking at their underlying numbers. They have an expected goal (xG) differential of -0.34 per 90 minutes, per FBRef's xG model. That is the sixth-worst xG differential in the Premier League.

Things get even worse when you look at how they've done on the road. Their xG differential away from home is -0.46 per 90 minutes, compared to -0.23 per 90 at home.

Newcastle are also a much better team at home. Their xG differential at St. James' Park is +0.95 per 90 minutes, the fourth-best home differential in the league. They've won nine of their 14 home matches this season.

The odds for Newcastle to win may be impacted by the potential absences in their lineup. However, their squad still looks strong enough to beat West Ham. It's nice that they'll have Alexander Isak in the lineup. He scored goals in the last two games before the break.

The -120 odds on this bet isn't too bad of a number to lay. West Ham have won just one of their last four matches in all competitions and three of 14 matches in 2024. I feel good about backing Newcastle in this match.

Crystal Palace at Nottingham Forest (Saturday 11 AM ET )

Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+125)

Nottingham Forest find themselves in a tricky situation. They are now in the relegation zone due to a points deduction that cost them four points in the table because of the Premier League profitability and sustainability regulations.

Forest have been on a barren run, with just one win since January 17th in all competitions. But they are facing similar competition, which could lead them to a victory.

Crystal Palace have just two wins in the calendar year 2024. Those wins were against Sheffield United and Burnley -- by far the two worst teams in the EPL. They have a lot of injuries to key players, especially Michael Olise. He's one of the few Palace players who will provide an attacking threat.

Olise has scored six goals and tallied three assists in the Premier League this season. That means he's contributed to nine of Palace's 33 goals despite playing in just 11 games. The team really struggles to generate attacks without him, as they are third from the bottom in xG created.

Forest are at least above water in xG differential at home, averaging + 0.11 xG per 90 minutes. Palace are in the negative on the road, losing the xG battle at a 0.68 clip per 90.

Whenever something like Forest's point deduction happens, a manager will typically use that as motivation in his team talks. That is something that Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo will need to do -- especially in a very winnable match like this one.

If Forest don't get their points deduction overturned, they'll absolutely need to win a games like this one to stay up, and I believe they can.

Player Props

Cole Palmer to Score (+120): Palmer has perhaps been Chelsea's standout performer this season, and he gets a great matchup on Saturday.

Palmer has scored 11 goals in 23 games in the league this season. He's Chelsea's main penalty taker, scoring all five of his spot kicks this season.

The Blues are at home against Burnley this week. Burnley are 19th in the table and have allowed the fourth-most xG in the league. They've conceded five penalties this season, so they could give Palmer another chance to score from the spot.

Son Heung Min to Score (-115): It may seem a bit weird to have to lay odds on a player to score, but laying just -115 on Son in this spot is a quality number.

Son has 14 goals in 25 matches this season. He tied for the most goals in the league in the 2021-22 season and then struggled last year.

He's gotten back on track this season and has two goals in his last three games. Strangely, Tottenham have scored just one goal from the penalty spot in the league this season, and Son was the one who scored it.

This weekend, Tottenham will face Luton Town, the team who have conceded the most xG in the league. If there was ever a matchup to bet on Son to score, it's in this one.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.