Duke vs Virginia College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for ACC Tournament Championship

The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (31-2, 17-1 ACC) take on the No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (29-4, 15-3 ACC) in the championship game of the ACC tournament on Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The winner earns an automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Duke vs. Virginia Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 14, 2026
• Game time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
• Arena: Spectrum Center

Duke vs. Virginia Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Duke win (64.9%)

Here's a look at some betting trends for Duke (-8.5) versus Virginia on Saturday. The total has been set at 138.5 points for this game.

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Duke vs. Virginia: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Duke has won 18 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 15 times.
• Virginia has won 17 games against the spread this year, while failing to cover 16 times.
• Duke covers the spread when it is an 8.5-point favorite or more 51.7% of the time. That's more often than Virginia covers as an underdog of 8.5 or more (never covered this season).
• At home, the Blue Devils sport a worse record against the spread (6-9-0) compared to their ATS record in road games (8-3-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Cavaliers have a lower winning percentage at home (.471, 8-9-0 record) than on the road (.500, 5-5-0).
• Duke is 11-9-0 against the spread in conference action this season.
• Virginia has covered the spread 10 times in 20 ACC games.

Duke vs. Virginia: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Duke has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 26 games this year and has walked away with the win 24 times (92.3%) in those games.
• This year, the Blue Devils have won 22 of 23 games when listed as at least -334 or better on the moneyline.
• Virginia has won 75% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (3-1).
• The Cavaliers have played as a moneyline underdog of +265 or longer in just one game this season, which they lost.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Duke has a 77% chance of walking away with the win.

Duke vs. Virginia Head-to-Head Comparison

• Duke has a +647 scoring differential, topping opponents by 19.6 points per game. It is putting up 82.5 points per game to rank 47th in college basketball and is giving up 62.9 per contest to rank third in college basketball.
• Duke's leading scorer, Cameron Boozer, ranks seventh in college basketball putting up 22.8 points per game.
• Virginia's +420 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game) is a result of putting up 81.0 points per game (67th in college basketball) while allowing 68.2 per contest (41st in college basketball).
• Virginia's leading scorer, Thijs De Ridder, ranks 234th in college basketball, scoring 15.8 points per game.
• The Blue Devils come out on top in the rebound battle by an average of 11.1 boards. They are collecting 37.5 rebounds per game (seventh in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 26.4 per contest.
• Boozer averages 10.3 rebounds per game (ranking 11th in college basketball) to lead the Blue Devils.
• The 36.8 rebounds per game the Cavaliers accumulate rank 18th in the country, 8.2 more than the 28.6 their opponents record.
• De Ridder's 6.2 rebounds per game lead the Cavaliers and rank 259th in the country.
• Duke scores 108.6 points per 100 possessions (13th in college basketball), while giving up 82.8 points per 100 possessions (second in college basketball).
• The Cavaliers rank 48th in college basketball averaging 103.9 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are 33rd, allowing 87.6 points per 100 possessions.

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