BMW Championship: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

Only two weeks are left in this year's PGA Tour season, so some may call this the penultimate week of the PGA season.

The top 50 in the FedExCup standings are eligible to tee it up this week at Caves Valley Golf Club, the second time Caves Valley will host a PGA event.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

BMW Championship Info
Caves Valley Golf Club Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 70
• Distance: 7,601 yards (very long)
• Average Fairway Width: 33.1 yards (average)
• Average Green Size: 5,200 square feet (small)
• Green Type: Bentgrass
• Recent Winning Scores: -27

Caves Valley Golf Club Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Distance
• Proximity From 175+ Yards

Length is at a premium this week, given the overall distance for the setup at Caves Valley, and when you look at a hole-by-hole breakdown, it becomes more apparent.

Only two holes are shorter than average for the Tour: the 334-yard par 4 11th and the 367-yard par 4 5th. Beyond that, everything is average relative to par or notably long. Eight holes are at least 10% longer than the Tour average relative to par, notably three long par 3s over 220 yards and five par 4s of at least 475 yards (with two more at 470-plus).

In 2021, this had put a heavy emphasis on long approaches of 175-plus yards and even 250-plus yards. Although there are a lot of doglegs, there was more of an emphasis on distance than accuracy based on 2021's correlations with overall scoring.

You can't really have a big weakness, though, as all-around play was rewarded in 2021.

Along with that, putting explained a lot of the scoring separation, so we'll need to make sure we feel good about that aspect of golfers we find interesting this week.

BMW Championship Past Results

Check out our course history primer for past BMW Championship history for golfers in this year's field.

BMW Championship Recent Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, including their strokes gained data.

BMW Championship Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Rory McIlroy

• Odds To Win BMW Championship (+800)

Rory's week off from the FedEx St. Jude Classic did nothing to jeopardize his standing for the BMW Championship field (he's second in FedExCup points despite not playing last week). Now, he heads to a setup that should reward distance and putting.

Among this week's field, nobody is hitting it farther than McIlroy the last 50 rounds, and his top-six putting splits are supported by 52nd-percentile putting numbers from within 15 feet. Yes, he's making a lot of long putts this season, but he's still solid from within 15 feet.

McIlroy is also top-10 in strokes gained per shot from 200-plus yards over the last 12 months, and he also finished fourth here back in 2021.

The +800 number feels generous, given his odds in larger fields earlier this season.

Cameron Young

• Odds To Win BMW Championship (+3000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+220)

Cameron Young lifted the lid on his PGA Tour career by winning the Wyndham Championship in dominant fashion, and he followed it up with a solo 5th-place finish last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. We see golfers get hot during stretches and reel off multiple wins in quick succession, and while there's truth to that, there is more to like when it comes to Cameron Young at Caves Valley.

Young is long off the tee (6th in the field) and is one of the best putters in the field, as well (5th in both strokes gained: putting over the last 50 rounds and in putting from within 15 feet on Tour this season). He makes makable putts and nukes it off the tee.

As for the irons, they're trending up, and he's gained on approach in four of his last five starts. Over his last 36 rounds (where we can generally trust approach numbers), Young ranks 31st among this 49-golfer field -- but is actually a +0.38 SG:APP per round guy in that span (per datagolf). Remember, this is a loaded field, so the ranking sounds a little worse than the raw number actually is.

Young's bankable distance, upward iron trajectory, and lights-out putting bode really well for success at Caves Valley.

Russell Henley

• Odds To Win BMW Championship (+3500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+230)

Henley's on the list -- again -- because, well, because he's really good right now and has been for a while.

To get things out of the way up front, the biggest knock on Henley this week will be his driving distance as he loses around 11.7 yards per drive to the average PGA Tour golfer, per datagolf. That ranks him 48th of 49 golfers in the field this week.

Other than that? Everything is great. Henley is 10th in approach and 3rd around the green over the last 50 rounds -- plus 20th in putting. Despite the lack of distance, he's still 30th in strokes gained: off the tee.

The real kicker is that he's eighth in strokes gained per shot over the last 12 months from 150-plus yards, per datagolf. He's used to playing on longer courses, and his mathematical ceiling ranks him fourth in this field over everyone's last 50 rounds.

Matt Fitzpatrick

• Odds To Win BMW Championship (+4000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+260)

Matt Fitzpatrick rates out 17th in strokes gained: ceiling over everyone's last 50 rounds, and he is top-20 in all three approach through putting stats. Although he has taken a step back with his distance gains, he actually rates out first in the field in strokes gained per shot from 200-plus yards over the last 12 months and is seventh from 150-plus.

Fitzpatrick also rates out as a 91st-percentile putter from within 15 feet on Tour this season but is just 24th percentile from beyond that. That disconnect suggests some regression coming his way at some point.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more golf betting opportunities? Check out all the golf odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.