Bills at Chiefs Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for the AFC Championship

On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Conference Championship Round of the NFL playoffs.

The postseason is a fun time to play single-game NFL DFS on FanDuel.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bills at Chiefs NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Josh Allen ($17,000) has averaged 24.4 FanDuel points per game and is the only player in this matchup projected for 20-plus points in our NFL DFS projections. He will almost certainly be the most popular player utilized at MVP.

Even with Allen throwing for just 127 passing yards on 22 attempts last week, he punched in 2 rushing touchdowns and nearly reached 20 FanDuel points anyway, reminding us how he has multiple avenues to fantasy points. And when it comes together all at once for Allen, few can break a slate like he can, as he's scored 30+ points four times this season and has even exceeded 40 points twice.

Patrick Mahomes ($15,000) is the only player with a projection that rivals Allen's. Between Mahomes coming off a dud and Allen likely occupying the majority of MVP slots, the Chiefs QB might come in at a lower MVP roster percentage than he might normally see. That's notable given that he'll be facing a Buffalo team that's just 21st in schedule-adjusted pass defense. While Mahomes hasn't demonstrated the same absurd ceiling as Allen this season, we've seen him score 23+ points in 4 of his last 10 games, including a 29-point outing in his final regular season start.

We see a sizable drop-off in projections after the two quarterbacks, but Travis Kelce ($13,000) and James Cook ($13,500) are both pegged for around a dozen FanDuel points.

With how hard it's been to predict target distribution in this K.C. offense this season, I was hesitant to recommend Kelce as an MVP option in the Divisional Round, but as we've seen time and time again, he saves his best performances for the playoffs, catching 7 of 8 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown (24.2 FanDuel points). He's now scored 18+ FanDuel points in his last two games while soaking up a 30.6% target share, 35.9% air yards share, 33.3% red zone target share, and 50.0% end zone target share.

Cook had a somewhat quiet performance in the last round, and this isn't an ideal matchup against a Chiefs D that's allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs. However, volume has been in his favor after earning 20 or more opportunities in both postseason games, and Kansas City rates as an average rush defense when adjusted for schedule. Cook has cracked 20 FanDuel points four of his last eight games.

Flex Targets

Khalil Shakir ($12,000) -- Shakir has emerged as the only Buffalo pass catcher showing any sort of consistent usage. He's logged a 28.3% target share this postseason while no other Bills player has reached even 12%. However, a 15.4% air yards share and 4.2-yard aDOT limits his fantasy potential, which is why he profiles more as a flex play.

Kareem Hunt ($11,500) and Isiah Pacheco ($8,000) -- In the Divisional Round, Hunt logged a 49.0% snap rate and 9 opportunities while Pacheco finished with a 30.6% snap rate and 6 opportunities. Hunt has scored a touchdown in three straight games whereas Pacheco has 6.6 FanDuel points total over that span. Even with the salary discrepancy, it's hard to feel super confident about rostering Pacheco.

Xavier Worthy ($11,000) -- After Kelce, Worthy is the one other Kansas City pass catcher we can feel pretty good about. Even with all the mouths to feed in this wideout room, the rookie has maintained a 26.2% target share and 37.9% red zone target share over the past four full games. He's also gotten 1-3 rushing attempts in every game over that span. Despite the otherwise encouraging role, his 4.6-yard aDOT in this sample makes it harder to elevate him as an MVP option.

Marquise Brown ($10,000) and DeAndre Hopkins ($9,500) -- Brown and Hopkins combined for three targets and zero points last week. Ouch. This was particularly disappointing to see from Brown, who seemed to be trending upward ahead of the Divisional Round. Hollywood did see the team's third-highest route rate (62.5%), though, while Hopkins was down at 34.4%. Brown is still worth taking a chance on, whereas Hopkins might be someone to fade almost completely.

Dalton Kincaid ($9,500) -- Shakir is projected for 7.7 targets, and after him, Kincaid is the only Bills player projected to see 5 or more looks. This is despite the fact he's gotten five targets total over two postseason games. The good news is his matchup checks out versus a K.C. defense that's coughed up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.

Harrison Butker ($9,000) and Tyler Bass ($9,000) -- Both kickers have reached double-digit FanDuel points in their playoff appearances this year, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them do so again working behind a pair of capable offenses. However, they probably need to luck into long kicking opportunities and/or have the under to hit to land on the perfect lineup.

Buffalo Bills D/ST ($8,500) and Kansas City Chiefs D/ST ($8,500) -- With two of the NFL's top QBs going toe-to-toe, we can probably mostly ignore the defenses.

Amari Cooper ($8,000), Keon Coleman ($7,500), Curtis Samuel ($6,500), Mack Hollins ($6,500), and Dawson Knox ($6,000) -- This grouping shows just what a headache it is to predict this Buffalo passing attack. Out of these five, Coleman is only one who's run over half the routes in both games (54.5%) while all the others have hovered slightly above or below 40%. Coleman's higher route rate theoretically makes him the guy to prioritize, but we're realistically just throwing darts with the hopes one scores a touchdown.

Ty Johnson ($7,500) -- Johnson has recorded a 40.5% snap rate in two postseason contests, earning 11 and 6 opportunities. While the floor is low, he's occasionally popped for big plays on limited touches.

Noah Gray ($7,000) -- Gray played over half the snaps and finished last week with the third-highest target share on the Chiefs (12.5%). His usage waned down the stretch, but he could be worth a dice roll at this salary.

You can also click here to check out the updated our 2024-25 NFL Playoffs printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.