Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis

We're officially in "If it ain't broke" territory with the NASCAR Cup Series.

Last week, my model showed value in Denny Hamlin and William Byron even at short odds, so we decided to bet 'em both.

Hamlin went on to win the race.

This week, we're running it back.

Those two are once again tops in my model by a decent margin, and both are values in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for the Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis. Even though it's a very different track from Dover, overall form is king, and these two are hard to top there.

Let's start by laying out my model's pre-practice sims for the race. Then, we can dig into the rationale behind both Hamlin and Byron. We can circle back later in the week once non-outrights are posted to add to the card.

NASCAR Predictions for Indianapolis

NASCAR Betting Picks for Indianapolis

Denny Hamlin to Win (+440)

Outside of a championship, this is the one crown jewel Hamlin doesn't have. I wouldn't be shocked if that changed on Sunday.

Hamlin has excelled on the big, fast tracks this year. He won Michigan and finished runner-up in Pocono, and he could have won that race, as well. His average running positions were sixth and fourth, respectively.

Hamlin's lack of wins at Indy isn't due to a lack of form. He won the opening stage here last year and was third in the second stage. He just got caught up in a crash late while trying to claw his way through traffic. The previous time they ran the oval -- back in 2020 -- Hamlin wrecked while leading with only a few laps left. It's a good track for him even if he hasn't won.

Due to that and Hamlin's form, my model has him the highest it has had any driver on an oval this year. It's possible I'm too high on him, but I do think it's fair to say he's more likely to win this race than his 18.5% implied odds would indicate.

William Byron to Win (+1000)

The reason Hamlin won Michigan is because Byron ran out of gas late, one of several near misses for Byron in a stellar season.

Byron has led more than 25% of the laps in four races this season. He has won zero of those, and he hasn't been to victory lane since the Daytona 500.

Typically, that indicates a driver is due for positive regression. I believe that's what we're seeing with Byron.

Byron has had top-five average running positions in Charlotte, Nashville, and Michigan recently with no wins to show for it. Eventually, that speed is going to translate to a victory. I think Indy's a good spot for him to finally see a finish that reflects his speed.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.