Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Cracker Barrel 400 in Nashville

Given the top of the betting board is what gets the most attention, it's not often we can find value on one of the favorites entering a weekend.

We get an exception this week in Nashville.

Not only does Nashville feature a relatively low incident rate, but it's deep enough in the calendar where we have a good idea of each driver's form. Thus, we can have more confidence in backing a driver at a shorter number, knowing there's a good chance they'll at least be in contention.

Which driver stands out to me, and which other bets are worth considering?

Let's start by laying out my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we can run through three mid-week bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NASCAR Predictions for Nashville

NASCAR Betting Picks for Nashville

Denny Hamlin to Win (+600)

Whenever my model shows value on Denny Hamlin to win on concrete, I'm inclined to buy in. It's a surface on which he has excelled during the Next-Gen era.

Since the start of 2022, the Cup Series has run 11 races at Nashville, Dover, or Bristol, the three concrete tracks on the circuit. Hamlin has won three of those with four additional top-fives, including a runner-up this year in Bristol. At Nashville, specifically, Hamlin's worst average running position is fifth across three trips.

Form is on Hamlin's side, too. He was a threat to win last week in Charlotte before a late pit stop error ruined his day, and he has wins at Martinsville and Darlington. It seems he hasn't quite fallen off despite this being his age-44 season.

As a result, my model has him slightly ahead of Kyle Larson as the race's favorite. Hamlin has also been qualifying well enough this year where I'd prefer to bet him now rather than waiting to see if I can get a better number over the weekend.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+310)

AJ Allmendinger combines surprising form with a strong history on concrete to stand out in a forgiving market.

The speed was on full display last week. Allmendinger was fast on Saturday, ran up front the entire night on Sunday, and finished fourth. It was already his fourth top-10 in 13 races.

One of those other top-10s came in Bristol, showing the concrete form is there. He won the Xfinity Series race at Nashville in 2023 and had a fourth-place average running position in last year's race. He followed that up by finishing 11th in the Cup Series race the next day.

Bristol has always been one of Allmendinger's better tracks, so his running well at Nashville makes sense. When you combine it with Kaulig Racing's new-found pace, I have Allmendinger at 31.5% to finish top 10, up from 24.4% implied.

Justin Haley to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

If you want to bet on Spire Motorsports, I'm showing value in Carson Hocevar to finish top 5 at +600. Given Hocevar's near-win last week, it's tempting.

Personally, I have a slight preference for Hocevar's teammate at even longer odds to sneak into the top 10.

The longer odds make sense: Justin Haley hasn't been able to match Hocevar, potentially leading to his mid-season crew chief swap. Haley hasn't been entirely out to lunch, though, with a 10th-place finish in Homestead and a seventh-place average running position in Bristol. He also finished 15th in Texas a couple races ago.

We don't need Haley to spike to see value here. His implied odds for a top 10 are just 8.3%; I have him at 11.5%. Although it's a bit of a leap of faith with how things have gone, Haley finished 13th at this track in worse equipment last year with Rick Ware Racing, so I think he can get the job done.

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Which bets stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.