AFC West Betting: Can Anyone Knock Off the Chiefs?

With the draft completed and training camps a ways away, this is a rare downtime for the NFL, but that doesn't mean we have to take a break from the action.

Via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can dive into the futures market. In addition to having NFL division winner odds, FanDuel Sportsbook also has NFL win total odds and odds to make the playoffs for all 32 teams.

Let's take a look at the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 11.5 (-128 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -500
Odds to Win the AFC West: -160
Odds to Win the AFC: +350
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +600 (best)

The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West, winning seven straight division titles. They've won at least 12 games in six of those seven seasons, including all five seasons in which Patrick Mahomes has been the starter. With Mahomes and coach Andy Reid at the controls, the Chiefs should be one of the NFL's elite again in 2023, and the betting markets reflect that with KC the Super Bowl favorite (+600) as well as the clear-cut favorite in the AFC West (-160).

Despite losing Tyreek Hill last offseason, Mahomes led the league in both passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41) en route to his second MVP award. Mahomes ranked first in QBR (77.6) while finishing second in both passer rating (105.2) and adjusted yards per attempt (8.5). He goes into 2023 tied with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen as the MVP favorites (+700), per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Despite some shuffling along the offensive line -- losing Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie in free agency but adding Juwan James and Donovan Smith -- and a pass-catching group that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence outside of Travis Kelce, Kansas City figures to be just fine offensively this fall.

Defensively, KC lost Juan Thornhill in free agency from 2022 unit that played well, allowing the seventh-fewest yards per play (5.1). They were particularly adept versus the pass, permitting just 5.6 net yards per pass attempt, tied for the fourth-lowest clip, and they return Chris Jones, their anchor up front.

One potential worry for Kansas City is a difficult schedule, the fifth-toughest by 2023 win total odds, as they match up with an AFC East that might wind up being the best division in football. But as long as Mahomes is healthy, the AFC West runs through Kansas City.

Los Angeles Chargers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-128 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -115
Odds to Win the AFC West: +300
Odds to Win the AFC: +1300
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2500 (11th-best)

Going into 2022, the Los Angeles Chargers were a chic pick to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West. It didn't happen, and while the Chargers deserve credit for battling through some key injuries and still making the playoffs, the campaign was ultimately a disappointing one, especially given that it ended with the Bolts blowing a 27-point lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round.

But if someone is going to unseat the Chiefs in this division, the Chargers still look like the best bet, something that is reflected in LA having the second-best odds (+300) to win the AFC West.

Justin Herbert took a step back in 2023, posting 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt and averaging 278.8 passing yards per game -- both of which were career-worst marks. However, injuries to Rashawn Slater and Mike Williams, two of LA's key cogs on offense, didn't help, and there's still plenty of reason for optimism with Herbert moving forward. He's the fifth-favorite for the MVP (+900), according to the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore might give this attack a lift.

While Herbert underwhelmed some in 2022, the defense was the biggest reason for the Chargers failing to threaten the Chiefs in the AFC West as LA's defense surrendered the fourth-most yards per play (5.9), including the most yards per carry (5.4). Prized 2022 offseason signing J.C. Jackson struggled mightily before suffering a season-ending injury. He's expected to be healthy in time for this coming season, and Jackson returning to his pre-Chargers form would be a big boost for this defense.

The Chargers also have to deal with a stout schedule, one that is the sixth-toughest by 2023 win total odds. In addition to facing the AFC East, LA has same-place games against the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens.

To win the division, the Chargers would likely need to have their best season under coach Brandon Staley -- who has won 9 and 10 games through two years -- while hoping for the Chiefs to take a step back. This is definitely a talented roster, though, and that's why their win total prop is at 9.5 with a -128 price on the over.

Denver Broncos 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5 (-132 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +194
Odds to Win the AFC West: +550
Odds to Win the AFC: +3000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4500 (18th-best)

Last offseason, the Denver Broncos made a huge trade, landing Russell Wilson in the hopes that he could push an otherwise quality roster into title contention. It didn't work out as Wilson faceplanted in his first year in Denver, leading to a nightmare 5-12 campaign, one in which the Broncos canned coach Nathaniel Hackett midseason.

This offseason, the Broncos made another headline trade, prying coach Sean Payton away from the New Orleans Saints in an effort to fix Wilson and get the Broncos back into the playoff mix.

Wilson's numbers nosedived last year as he recorded an adjusted yards per attempt of 6.9 with a 10.2% sack rate, the latter of which was the second-worst mark among qualified passers. In his final season with the Seahawks, Wilson finished with a clip of 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt and threw nine more touchdowns than he did in 2022 despite starting one fewer game.

Payton was one of the NFL's top coaches in his time with New Orleans. He will have his work cut out for him with Wilson, but Payton is listed with the third-best odds to win Coach of the Year.

It's not just Payton who is coming in to give the offense a boost. Tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers were signed in free agency to bolster Denver's front five. If they can keep Wilson upright, that would be a good start to helping the old Wilson re-emerge, and if Wilson can get back to being the Seattle Wilson, Denver will become interesting pretty quickly.

The defense should be legit. They were top-notch last season, giving up the fifth-fewest yards per play in 2022. Patrick Surtain II has become one of the NFL's top corners, and he helped this unit allow the fifth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.6)

Aided by finishing last in the AFC West last year, Denver has the easiest schedule in this division going by 2023 win total odds, although it's still the eighth-toughest schedule overall. They are a +195 underdog to make the playoffs, but that number could look like a bargain if Wilson regains his form.

Las Vegas Raiders 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5 (-134 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: +390
Odds to Win the AFC West: +1200
Odds to Win the AFC: +4500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +5500 (21st-best)

After making the playoffs in 2021, everything went south for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022. Year 1 of coach Josh McDaniels' tenure was a wildly disappointing one that saw Derek Carr get benched midseason and ultimately ended in a 6-11 record.

Despite entering 2023 with the third-toughest schedule by win total odds, it's not all doom and gloom.

For one, the Raiders were unlucky to win just six games last season. Their -23 point differential was actually better than their -63 point differential from their 10-win season in 2021. While the Raiders caught a lot of close-game luck two years ago, it more than evened out in 2022 as Vegas went 4-9 in one-score games, including 2-6 in games decided by three or fewer points. By Pythagorean wins, the Raiders were the unluckiest team in the league last year.

On top of that, they could also be better at quarterback this fall.

Carr is now in New Orleans, and the Raiders brought in Jimmy Garoppolo to steer the ship. Jimmy G, when healthy, was a super efficient quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers, registering a combined 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt across his last four seasons while amassing 70 touchdowns to 34 interceptions. Carr has never been above 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt in a single season. Of course, the biggest issue with Garoppolo has been health, and that's already a worry after he had foot surgery this offseason.

Defense was a major problem for Vegas last season. The Raiders gave up the fifth-most yards per play (5.8), including the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt (6.7). Vegas attempted to address their defense in both free agency -- mostly notably by inking safety Marcus Epps -- and the draft, with six of their nine selections being used on a defender, including defensive end Tyree Wilson at seventh overall.

In Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams, the Raiders have a stud playmaker on each side of the ball, and they can't be as bad in one-score games again this year, right? Plus, a healthy Garoppolo could ignite Vegas' offense. So, even though the Raiders are +390 to make the playoffs and a +1200 longshot to win the AFC West, they could be improved in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.