Ranking All 32 NFL Schedules for 2023 via Win Totals

With the release of the 2023 NFL schedule, the analysis can truly begin.

We had already known which teams were playing which opponents, but we now know the week-by-week breakdown of every squad -- and we know when their bye weeks are.

As always, some draws are easier than others, but how can we quantify who has the simplest path to success?

One thing is for sure: we shouldn't look at last year's winning percentages.

Instead, we can look at the win totals betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. From those win totals, we can use a regression process to estimate expected point differential for each and every team.

From there, we can easily see who has the toughest and easiest schedule for 2023.

Ranking All 32 NFL Schedules for 2023

Here is how each team's schedule ranks in terms of average opponent quality, sorted from toughest to easiest. Average opponent strength (by expected point differential) is listed.

1. New England Patriots: +1.88
2. Miami Dolphins: +1.52
3. Las Vegas Raiders: +1.40
4. Buffalo Bills: +1.39
5. Kansas City Chiefs: +1.27
6. Los Angeles Chargers: +1.15
7. New York Jets: +1.12
8. Denver Broncos: +1.02
9. Washington Commanders: +0.91
10. Minnesota Vikings: +0.79
11. New York Giants: +0.59
12. Dallas Cowboys: +0.46
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +0.26
14. Arizona Cardinals: +0.26
15. Philadelphia Eagles: +0.02
16. Cincinnati Bengals: +0.02
17. Detroit Lions: -0.02
18. Baltimore Ravens: -0.03
19. Los Angeles Rams: -0.17
20. Tennessee Titans: -0.29
21. Cleveland Browns: -0.30
22. Green Bay Packers: -0.30
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: -0.46
24. Seattle Seahawks: -0.67
25. Chicago Bears: -0.67
26. Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.69
27. Carolina Panthers: -0.73
28. Houston Texans: -0.83
29. San Francisco 49ers: -1.00
30. Indianapolis Colts: -1.11
31. New Orleans Saints: -1.90
32. Atlanta Falcons: -1.91

Toughest NFL Schedules in 2023

New England Patriots

The Patriots' schedule stands alone as the toughest draw in the NFL for 2023. They have a win total of 7.5 but will have a tough time getting over that based on the slate that lies ahead.

Using the aforementioned expected point differential method, they are not initially favored by 6.0 or more points in any game but are touchdown underdogs in five matchups.

They have six games that are within three points (coin-flip games), so they have a chance to see positive fortune but -- again -- lack any cakewalk games.

Miami Dolphins

The AFC East schedule is no joke. The Dolphins are second in schedule difficulty based on this measure.

Six of their games are expected to be three-point games using the preseason win totals as our guide, and they're touchdown favorites in just two games (at home against the Raiders and Titans in Weeks 11 and 14, respectively).

Las Vegas Raiders

A win total of 6.5 is set for the Raiders for 2023 (with -144 odds on the over). They rate out with no games as touchdown favorites but six as touchdown underdogs given their weak expected point differential of a team expected to win shy of seven games.

In addition to tough divisional matchups with the Chiefs and Chargers, they also host the Jets and are on the road against the Bills and Lions.

Easiest NFL Schedules in 2023

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons narrowly have the easiest schedule in the NFL based on this process, but they and the Saints are in a tier of their own.

Unsurprisingly, part of this has to do with playing in a weak NFC South division.

Atlanta's schedule sets up for a volatile season, as eight of their games are projected to be within three points (in terms of pre-game spread).

They also get a matchup with the Cardinals (who have the lowest win total of the season at 4.5 -- with no other team even at 5.5) on the road, and they also host the Texans, Commanders, and Colts.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a noticeable schedule quirk with 4 of their first 6 and 7 of their first 11 games being on the road, but few of them are particularly daunting.

They end the season with a pretty easy stretch of the Panthers (home), Giants (home), Rams (road), Buccaneers (road), and Falcons (home). That's a lot of good weather late into the season, too.

Indianapolis Colts

In addition to an overall good draw, the Colts have no primetime games initially scheduled in 2023, and they face the Patriots in Frankfurt for a neutral-site matchup.

Indianapolis ends the year with three home games over the final four weeks.

Only the Vikings (11) have more coin-flip games than the Colts (10), Packers (10), and Browns (10).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.