4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 9

For the second straight week, it's all about the totals, baby.

My model's NFL spread and total predictions for Week 9 are only two points off market in one spot: the Detroit Lions laying 8.5 against the Minnesota Vikings. And with that one, things could tighten on my end if we get good injury news on the Vikings' offensive line.

The totals market is a different story, and I won't object, given totals have been more kind to me this year than sides, anyway.

Let's dig into my four favorites for Week 9 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 9 Spread and Total Bets

Bears at Bengals

Total Under 50.5 (-104)

These two defenses are absolute booty, so I understand why the total is this high. I just can't get there with two inconsistent offenses.

Entering Week 9, the Chicago Bears and Cincinnati Bengals are 19th and 25th, respectively, in numberFire's offensive efficiency rankings. Offense drives my totals model -- it's stickier and easier to predict than defense -- meaning I won't often get a total in the 50s when it's two below-average units.

Yes, the Bengals have been much more efficient since Joe Flacco joined the team, but this is still the quarterback who struggled mightily with the Cleveland Browns and is now dealing with a shoulder injury. I'm comfortable betting on regression with this offense.

It's possible these defenses are so bad that even middling offenses can thrive. We did see that as they let up 30-plus points to Tyler Huntley and Justin Fields last week. I just don't know if that's enough to justify a total so high, so I'm willing to go here even with the total ticking down a point from where it was this morning.

Panthers at Packers

Total Over 44.5 (-105)

I'd feel better about this total if we had assurances Bryce Young would start for the Carolina Panthers. Andy Dalton was abominable last week, and they're now dealing with injuries along the offensive line.

It helps that the Green Bay Packers should be able to name their own score here, so I'm still willing to plug the over despite the question marks.

The Packers have already looked great this year as they sit fourth in numberFire's overall offensive rankings and second through the air. But they've now got Christian Watson back in the mix, and Watson looked like himself in his first game off an ACL tear. That gives them a pair of field-stretchers, a skillset that compliments Jordan Love's DGAF tendencies well.

As for the Panthers, their skill corps is finally healthy, at least. Both Jalen Coker and Ja'Tavion Sanders were top four on the team in routes last week, adding some depth behind Tetairoa McMillan. The cupboard isn't completely empty at pass-catcher.

With Young potentially practicing on Wednesday, I think we have enough positive signs to ride with the over.

Saints at Rams

Total Over 43.5 (-110)

The pitch here is nearly identical to Panthers-Packers: the Los Angeles Rams should light it up, meaning we won't need much out of the New Orleans Saints for this one to go over.

The Rams are slated to get Puka Nacua back after their bye week, and they played well before that bye. They're currently numberFire's eighth-ranked overall offense, sitting seventh through the air.

The Saints' defense has been fine overall, but this will be just their fourth road game. They have let up 44, 31, and 26 points in the others, and that 26-point output came while playing in heavy winds in Chicago. The Rams should be able to do work.

As for the Saints' offense, I'm not overly high on Tyler Shough. My quarterback prospect model dinged him heavily for his age, a factor that makes it more concerning he couldn't initially beat out Spencer Rattler, who is exactly one year younger than Shough. He does, though, have quality pieces around him, so it's at least possible the offense avoids bottoming out.

With a new quarterback comes volatility and uncertainty. This total is telling us we're certain the Saints will do nothing on offense. It's very possible they will, but even if that happens, I do think the Rams can do enough to still push this game over.

Broncos at Texans

Total Over 39.5 (-110)

These are two competent offenses playing indoors. Even with two great defenses in play, that's enough for me to show value in the over.

The big concern here is the Denver Broncos' pass rush. When the Houston Texans came alive last week, they did so against a San Francisco 49ers team that has struggled to get to the quarterback all year. The Broncos, on the other hand, have been an outlier in how much pressure they've generated.

Help is on the way, though. Nico Collins is expected to return from a one-game absence, and he'll do so against a secondary now missing the defending Defensive Player of the Year in Patrick Surtain. As long as C.J. Stroud can get a couple seconds to get the ball out of his hand, they should have some level of success.

As for the Broncos, despite their issues, they're up to 10th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. They have a solid offensive line that should hold up against a tough pass rush, and they've got depth at pass-catcher. They'll still have some issues as the Texans are a force, but it shouldn't be a total letdown.

Because of the offenses and the environment, I've got this total at 44.1. That's below average, and the defenses are the reason for that. I just think 39.5 is an overreaction to that side of the ball.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.