4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 11

When you believe that the wrong team is favored in an NFL game, you've got a couple of options.

You can take the points. This gives you extra flexibility so that even if they don't quite pull off the upset, you can still win your bet. Given that the betting markets tend to be hyper-efficient when it comes to NFL sides, there's value in that as taking the spread puts you closer to how the betting market expects that game to play out.

The more aggressive approach is to take the underdog's moneyline. I tend to like this route because it gives me more upside in what is objectively a riskier stance. The longer the odds, the smaller the bet size, typically, so I can lower my exposure to the team while still getting upside should they pull off the upset.

I think that's the right approach for Week 11, a slate where I'm seeing several spots in which the underdog should be favored.

This does mean I'm pretty far off market in several spots, and that's a scary proposition. The risk is baked into the number, though, as we're getting healthy plus money in each spot.

Let's start there, laying out the three underdogs I'm backing to win this week before delving into other bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 11 Spread and Total Bets

Commanders vs. Dolphins

Commanders Moneyline (+134)

You and I both know the Washington Commanders' defense is an abomination, and they'll be missing a bunch of starters this week.

There just aren't many teams against whom the Miami Dolphins should be 2.5-point favorites on a neutral site. The Commanders -- despite their flaws -- aren't in that bucket for me.

The Dolphins enter Week 11 as numberFire's 21st-ranked offense and 27th-ranked defense. They've especially struggled against the pass, which gets extra weight for me, given the importance of passing in today's NFL.

The Commanders' defense has been worse, but the offense has been pretty acceptable. They've either met or exceeded expectations (based on opponent strength) on early downs through the air in two of Marcus Mariota's four starts, and they were just a smidge below expectation in another. They've also run the ball relatively well in that span.

I think they'll be able to score points on this Dolphins defense. While the Dolphins' offense can do work, too, the potential for big mistakes on that side seem higher. Thus, I do think the Commanders' moneyline is the proper way to fade this Dolphins team off a big win.

Bears at Vikings

Bears Moneyline (+140)

There's a ton of volatility in the Chicago Bears' offense as they prepare to face a nasty Minnesota Vikings defense. That pushes me toward the more volatile market rather than taking the points, even at +3.

The Bears are up to 11th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. The passing game has been solid, and the ground game is finally starting to generate explosives. The Vikings' rush defense has been vulnerable at times, meaning the Bears could find success via that route.

It's also hard to get all that high on the Vikings' offense. I haven't given up hope on J.J. McCarthy long-term, but there's no doubt he has been up-and-down himself, as well. After posting impressive efficiency numbers in Week 9, he came crashing back to earth in Week 10. The team has been especially poor on late downs in McCarthy's starts.

So, what we're getting here is one decent offense facing an opponent whose offense has been all over the map. I don't think a McCarthy-led team should be three-point favorites against a team that has looked as competent as the Bears have. Snagging the moneyline here allows us to take advantage of that unpredictability and see if the Bears can keep their momentum rolling.

Lions at Eagles

Lions Moneyline (+124)

Here, the risk comes in betting against a Philadelphia Eagles team whose defense looked ferocious on Monday Night Football with some new faces in the mix. I still think the Detroit Lions have earned our trust, though.

This has nothing to do with the Lions' win over the Commanders last week. Their defense and Philadelphia's could not be more different.

It's about the full-season numbers, which have the Lions' offense ranked fifth after adjusting for schedule. They're also 13th defensively despite gobs of injuries to the secondary. They opened the practice windows for both DJ Reed and Marcus Davenport on Wednesday.

The Eagles' offense is also top-10, but they're banged up along the offensive line. Cam Jurgens missed all three practices before sitting out last week, and Lane Johnson may not be at 100% despite returning to finish out Monday's game.

I'm not sure the Lions should be favored, which is how my model views things. But I do think the gap between these two teams is small enough for us to take the Lions at a favorable number.

Chiefs at Broncos

Total Over 44.5 (-105)

This one is pretty simple: the Kansas City Chiefs' offense has hummed with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy healthy, and the Denver Broncos' defense is missing key pieces. Gimme the over.

In order to expand the sample, let's look at the Chiefs from Week 4 on, the game Worthy returned from his shoulder injury. In those games, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 0.32 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That would be tied for third in the league if it were Mahomes' full-season number.

It's important to remember that Rice missed three of those games, and rookie left tackle Josh Simmons has yet to play with Rice after taking a leave of absence. Simmons is back with the team, though there's no guarantee he starts. If he does, it'd be the first time all year we've seen this team at full capacity. That's scary with how good they've looked.

As for the Broncos, they're likely to be without Patrick Surtain II and Alex Singleton this week. We should still expect them to play like a top-notch unit, but it's not quite the force they've been since the start of last year.

Put it all together, and my model has this total at 47.9. I'm willing to get behind that as it gives me exposure to the Chiefs' offense as they potentially start to truly hit their stride.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.