3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Texans at Chiefs, Week 16

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Saturday as the Houston Texans take on the Kansas City Chiefs? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Texans at Chiefs Betting Picks

Total Over 41.5 (-115)

Two underwhelming offenses with struggling offensive lines and one hobbled quarterback.

Clearly that screams "over," right?

A big part of this is the health of Patrick Mahomes. Despite the ankle injury, he practiced in full all week. When I put him at full health in my model's NFL Week 16 spread and total predictions, it puts the total here at 44.9 points.

That's still below average for an NFL game so far in 2024. They've clocked in at 45.5 points through Week 15, up from 43.5 at this point last year. But even a below-average projection settles in well above 41.5.

Even though the offenses have struggled, they're certainly not bad. The Chiefs are 10th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, and the Texans are 19th. Pair that with two solid-but-not-overwhelming defenses, and I think it's fair to think this game goes over a low total.

Isiah Pacheco Over 65.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-113)

If you look at Isiah Pacheco's role since returning, you're not going to sniff this number. His max output thus far is 61 yards from scrimmage.

I think we could see his role expand here, though, pushing me to buy in.

Last week's game was on a messy field, and the Chiefs had a two-score lead late. As a result, Pacheco's snap rate was just 37.3%.

However, that number was 50.0% in the first half, and he had 9 of his 13 carries there. He had just one carry in the fourth quarter, so it's fair to think he'd have been more involved if the game were more competitive.

The week before that, Pacheco was close to a full role with 14 carries and 4 targets. If he can get back to that level, I think over 65.5 is a fair expectation.

CJ Stroud Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-113)

I adore C.J. Stroud, and as much as I'd like to pretend this bet is about assuming he suddenly course-corrects amid a down season, it's not. It's really about the Chiefs' defense.

This unit encourages you to throw the ball on them. While they rank sixth against the rush, per numberFire's metrics, they're 14th against the pass. This -- combined with typically negative game scripts -- is why teams have thrown the ball 57.3% of the time agains the Chiefs on early downs, up from 52.4% league-wide.

The Texans have been more run-heavy than that, generally, sitting at a 50.9% pass rate on early downs. But their early-down rush offense has been poor, and now they're in a tough matchup.

I'd expect that to push more throws out of Stroud in a neutral script. When you combine that with the potential for the Texans to fall behind, I'm comfortable taking the over here despite the Texans' continued struggles.

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Which bets stand out to you for this week's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the lines for each contest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.