3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Monday 8/4/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-106)

There's definitely some risk in backing a NRFI in a game featuring two teams with capable offenses with winds blowing out at Citizens Bank Park. However, even with Cade Povich and Jesus Luzardo showing inconsistencies on the mound this season, I'll take them to combine for zero earned runs given up in Monday's contest between the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies.

While Povich is making his first start since June 15, he's performed well in the first inning this season, earning the 26th-best xFIP (3.22) and 5th-highest strikeout rate (35.3%) in the opening frame among pitchers with 10-plus starts in 2025. Even though the Phillies certainly have lethal bats toward the top of their lineup, they've registered the eighth-worst wOBA (.295), eighth-worst wRC+ (90), and fourth-highest strikeout rate (29.6%) in the first inning over the last 30 days.

On the other hand, Luzardo has been elite in the opening inning of his starts, logging the 8th-best xFIP (2.58), 33rd-highest strikeout rate (28.6%), and 16th-lowest walk rate (4.4%) in the first inning this year. Along with the Orioles posting the 13th-worst wOBA (.327) and 14th-worst wRC+ (110) in the first inning this season, they also have the 7th-worst wOBA (.288), 10th-worst wRC+ (83), 5th-worst ISO (.122), and 10th-highest strikeout rate (24.1%) versus left-handed pitching in 2025.

Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

The Cleveland Guardians have seen their bats wake up recently, and the New York Mets have some dangerous hitters lurking at the top of their order, but that won't prevent me from backing under 0.5 runs scored in the first inning of Monday's contest. Slade Cecconi (4.22 SIERA and 4.06 xFIP) is expected to start for the Guardians while Sean Manaea (2.73 SIERA and 2.90 xFIP) is slated to make his 4th start of the campaign.

Aside from his 11-2 NRFI record this season, Cecconi has held his own in the first inning of his starts, allowing just a .219 BABIP and 1.00 WHIP in the opening frame throughout this campaign. As for the Mets at the plate, they've tallied the 10th-worst wOBA (.307) and 13th-worst wRC+ (98) in the opening frame across the last 30 days, so there's reason to believe we can get three quick outs from Cecconi.

Although it's a limited sample of three starts for Manaea, he's sporting a stellar 0.10 xFIP, 54.5% strikeout rate, and 0.0% walk rate in the opening frame of his outings while recording a 2-1 NRFI record. While Cleveland has accrued the seventh-best wOBA (.340) and fifth-best wRC+ (120) over the last 14 days, they boast the fourth-worst wOBA (.282), eighth-worst wRC+ (80), and seventh-worst ISO (.125) against southpaws this year.

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

The -130 odds for a NRFI in Monday's clash between the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers aren't great, but I'm still interested with Sonny Gray (16-6 NRFI record) and Tyler Glasnow (8-1 NRFI record) set to the be on the bump. Although there's certainly more risk trusting Gray in this matchup, especially with his recent struggles, his first inning metrics (2.33 xFIP, 31.1% strikeout rate, and 3.3% walk rate) are strong.

Additionally, the Dodgers have been more strikeout-prone in the opening frame over the last 30 days, tallying the third-highest strikeout rate (30.0%) in the first inning during that span. If Gray is able to contain LA's lethal lineup to zero runs to begin Monday's showdown, Glasnow should have no issues shutting down a St. Louis squad that has struggled to generate runs in the first inning all year.

Up to this point, the Cardinals have produced the second-worst wOBA (.289), second-worst wRC+ (85), and worst ISO (.095) in the first inning this season. At the same time, Glasnow is holding a formidable 3.77 xFIP, .056 BABIP, 0.67 WHIP, and 28.1% strikeout rate in the opening inning across his first nine starts in 2025.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.