3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 8/4/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

J.T. Realmuto to Hit a Home Run (+450)

A lot of factors are drifting J.T. Realmuto's way for a bomb against the Baltimore Orioles tonight.

It's a little surprising Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are so short for dingers when they've performed significantly worse against southpaws in the past 30 days. Realmuto hasn't, posting a 1.053 OPS, .316 ISO, 41.7% hard-hit rate, and 58.3% flyball rate over 19 plate appearances (PAs) in the split. He's earned a promotion to the projected cleanup spot for the Philadelphia Phillies against lefties.

All options have to be on the table Monday when Baltimore's Cade Povich ranks within the 5th percentile or worse in all of average exit velocity (91.9 MPH), hard-hit rate (51.3%), and barrel rate (13.5%). The guy is a dinger machine, letting up 1.49 HR/9 to right-handed sticks.

Realmuto has just two homers since the start of July, but he's making great contact recently and can add a third against Povich.

Trevor Story to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Sometimes, I'll see trades for starters and wonder why a team wants one. A change of scenery could do Bailey Falter wonders, but he might be in trouble tonight if his 2025 performance holds.

Falter's 5.11 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is poor because of a giant contact rate (84.7%) that also comes with elevated flyball (44.3%) and hard-hit (44.7%) rates. It's odd to say someone is fortunate to have only let up 1.44 HR/9 to righties, but his loft tendencies are even worse than Povich's.

Enter Trevor Story. Though Fenway isn't the best venue for home runs, Story has successfully navigated the monster for 7 of his 18 blasts this season. With a .233 ISO, 47.8% flyball rate, and 39.1% hard-hit rate over the past month, Story has been the Boston Red Sox's best crusher of southpaws at present.

Story should have quality chances throughout the game, too. The Kansas City Royals' bullpen has MLB's fifth-worst xFIP over the past 30 days (4.50).

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+350)

It might surprise some folks to learn that Yandy Diaz is the Tampa Bay Rays' leader in home runs (5) against lefties in the past month.

Junior Caminero has slumped in the split following his runner-up performance in the Home Run Derby, but Diaz has taken the reins with a 1.370 OPS, .615 ISO, 41.7% flyball rate, and 62.5% hard-hit rate in 27 PAs. That's an absurd 18.5% homer rate against southpaws for a month.

Yusei Kikuchi is definitely more vulnerable for bombs than his 3.30 ERA would suggest. He's let up 1.46 HR/9 to opposite-handed bats along with a 43.5% flyball rate and 39.5% hard-hit rate. These contact issues (and a 4.13 SIERA) make him one of baseball's best negative regression candidates down the stretch.

L.A. is a weak bullpen that has let up the sixth-most homers in the last month (1.15 HR/9), too.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.