3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Friday 7/25/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-122)

Although this Chicago Cubs-Chicago White Sox matchup features a pair of pitchers who have overachieved to this point, we should still like their chances of closing the first inning with a pair of zeros on the scoreboard.

Over 10 starts, right-hander Adrian Houser has pitched to a 1.89 ERA that doesn't line up with his 3.77 xERA, but the latter is still a respectable mark. Despite carrying a weak strikeout rate (17.7%), strong marks in barrel rate (4.3%) and ground-ball rate (48.1%) have helped him suppress home runs (0.29 HR/9). Even with some assumed regression surrounding the long ball, Houser has prevented dingers his entire career with a 0.89 HR/9.

The White Sox righty has allowed one earned run in the first inning all season. While the Cubs are a tough matchup, their YRFI dips to a less imposting 28.9% on the road compared to 34.0% at Wrigley Field.

Southpaw Shota Imanaga is another hurler who has a gap between his ERA (2.40) and xERA (3.51), and his .196 BABIP is definitely due for a course correction. However, we again have a pretty solid xERA to work with, and Imanaga makes up for a modest K rate (18.2%) with a lack of walks (5.8%) and hard hits (36.8%).

Imanaga has recorded a NRFI in 10 of 13 starts this year, and this isn't a bad matchup against a White Sox team that's produced a mere 28.0% YRFI rate at home.

This game also shows a 8.0-run total, which is one of the slate's lowest marks, too.

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

Michael Wacha finally allowed a first-inning run in his last start, pushing his first-inning ERA to... 0.45. That comes to a NRFI in 19 of 20 starts, and he's now facing a Cleveland Guardians lineup that's 27th in YRFI rate (24.5%).

Wacha doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he simply doesn't allow a ton of loud contact, flashing a 32.2% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile) and 86.8 mph average exit velocity (92nd percentile). He's really put the clamps on dingers the past few campaigns, and this one is no different (0.88 HR/9). An already light-hitting Cleveland offense in a ballpark that's tough to hit homers will only further help Wacha begin another NRFI streak.

Right-hander Gavin Williams produces his highest strikeout rate (25.6%) the first time through the order, which is always a great sign for this market. While he might not have a near-perfect track record in the first inning like Wacha, he's logged a NRFI in 14 of 20 starts and 8 of his last 9.

The Kansas City Royals have been neutral in YRFI rate (28.2%), but that drops to lesser mark at home (24.0%). The Royals have hit two home runs in the first inning all season, so they're unlikely to sink this bet with one swing, either.

Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-108)

A pair of high-strikeout pitchers alongside solid odds has me interested in taking a NRFI swing at this Washington Nationals-Minnesota Twins contest.

Zebby Matthews has a horrific 6.26 ERA through five starts, but a 4.01 xERA, 3.32 SIERA, and 3.19 xFIP all point to positive regression, and a bloated .410 BABIP backs that notion. Although he allowed five runs in his first start off the IL last week, his velocity was great and the matchup was at Coors Field, so his health shouldn't be a concern.

The main selling point for Matthews is a 29.8% strikeout rate that's supported by a 13.8% swinging-strike rate. Despite the poor result in his last start, he still logged a NRFI, giving him a scoreless first inning in four of his five outings. The Nationals have a 28.4% overall YRFI rate and a 24.0% clip on the road, so this isn't a daunting matchup, either.

MacKenzie Gore got shelled in his last start, which is probably part of the reason we're not seeing shorter odds. However, there shouldn't be any reason to panic as he's otherwise put up quality numbers this season.

That's particularly the case the first time through the order, where Gore has produced a 2.94 xFIP, 31.7% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate. The left-hander has converted a NRFI in 14 of 20 starts this season.

The Twins have been a middle-of-the-pack team in YRFI rate (29.4%), and while they'll counter with a righty-heavy lineup, that shouldn't be an issue for Gore, who still posts a 28.2% strikeout rate versus righties. Our Jim Sannes is high on Gore racking up the punchouts in this one, as well.

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