3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 9/9/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Ian Happ to Hit a Home Run (+520)

There is one Chicago Cubs bat with an OPS north of .800 against right-handed pitching in the past 30 days. I'm not sure why he's this distant for a bomb.

Ian Happ's power numbers have been there, too. He's logged a .456 SLG, .191 ISO with a solid rate of flyballs (47.1%) and hard-hit balls (43.1%). He's just been unlucky to find the other side of the fence with just two bombs to show for the efforts.

Spencer Strider, oddly enough, can help. Strider has struggled with the long ball in his 2025 return from a prolonged elbow injury, surrendering 1.68 HR/9 to lefties like the switch-hitting Happ will be. Further, 11 of Strider's 18 home runs have come at Truist Park, which is MLB's 12th-best park for dongs.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.18 median home runs from Happ, so we'd have expected to see him closer to +507 for a big fly.

Brice Turang to Hit a Home Run (+870)

Brice Turang leads the Milwaukee Brewers in homers against right-handed pitching since August 1st (9). How does he continue to sit around here in betting markets facing one?

The second baseman might not look the part, but he's also first in flyball (41.9%) and hard-hit (44.4%) rate among Brew Crew sticks with 100-plus plate appearances (PAs) in this sample, too. In short, he's probably the best power threat in this split on one of the better offenses in baseball.

It's not like Jack Leiter is a bad target, either. Leiter has surrendered just 0.95 HR/9, but that's been due to a lucky homer-to-flyball ratio (9.5%) that is well below the league average (11.2%). Globe Life Park is also much kinder to left-handed sticks like Turang than righties, who hit the fewest home runs in baseball at the venue.

Turang's home run projection (0.12) isn't high, but it still merits shorter implied odds (+784). Frankly, I think the projections are too conservative, as well.

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+400)

This is definitely a good spot for Rafael Devers to add his 13th dinger with the San Francisco Giants.

In the 60s, it's definitely cool in San Francisco, but extreme humidity and winds blowing out still help the homer conditions -- and so does Arizona Diamondbacks hurler Zac Gallen. "The Milk Man" has allowed 1.39 HR/9 this season, and lefties have a superior 4.59 xFIP off him. When he departs, Arizona's bullpen is 27th in reliever skill-interactive ERA (4.26 SIERA) in the past 30 days.

Devers has a team-best six round trips against righties in the past 30 days, totaling a .309 ISO, 37.5% flyball rate, and 39.6% hard-hit rate in 78 PAs. His limited history with Gallen is 2-for-4 with a walk and a double.

Our projections love the third baseman's chances tonight. At 0.32 median homers, he's today's third-likeliest hitter to touch 'em all, and we'd have expected closer to +265 odds for him to do so.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.