Best Bet and Prediction for Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford

The biggest fight available in boxing goes down on Saturday.

It's been a while since we've Saul "Canelo" Alvarez in a superfight. That was a two-part, competitive series with Gennediy "GGG" Golovkin that both went the distance. He's definitely got another on his hands with Terence "Bud" Crawford from Allegiant Stadium this weekend.

Crawford set this up unifying the welterweight straps with a previously unbeaten Errol Spence Jr. in July 2023 himself. He dominated a decision against Israil Madimov last August at super welterweight, as well.

Live on Netflix, it's a Mexican Independence Day showdown for the ages. Will Canelo put to bed any doubt he's the greatest super middleweight of his time, or does Crawford's late-career rally continue with the biggest win of his life?

Using boxing odds from FanDuel, here's how I'm betting the big fight.

Best Bet for Saul "Canelo" Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford

Crawford to Win (+150)
Crawford by Points or Decision (+195)

Canelo might get his hand raised, but this line is wrong.

Especially ceding four inches of reach, the pride of Guadalajara has simply been too vulnerable against iffy enough competition to be lined as a moderate favorite over an undefeated "Bud." Dmitry Bivol upset him in May 2022, and recent wins of his just aren't aging well. He fought Jaime Mungula in 2024, but Mungula lost by (T)KO to Bruno Surace after the bout. Similarly, Edgar Berlanga was dropped twice and KO'd in a loss to Hamzah Sheeraz after taking Alvarez to a decision.

On the other hand, Crawford had a +69 punch differential against a previously undefeated Errol Spence Jr. in July 2023 and cruised over Israil Madimov last year. Madimov has since lost to an undefeated and frightening-looking Vergil Ortiz Jr., but it was by decision against someone who might truly be next up at 153.

Crawford's length and speed can absolutely compete with Alvarez -- if not give him trouble just as Bivol did. Bivol had nearly two inches of reach on Canelo.

Obviously, the elephant in the room is the weight class. Canelo has occupied 168 forever, and Crawford's last fight was at 153. Normally, reach is a massive component of that shift. However, Canelo also has just three knockdowns in his last four fights against inferior competition, and Crawford's only career "drop" was controversial at best. I trust his chin.

The Mexican's hallmark durability should also be on display. He hasn't been dropped in 37 pro fights, and a 37-year-old Crawford moving up in weight is not exactly the most imposing athlete he'll have faced in this time.

Bud is +195 to win by points, and I'll ladder some of my exposure to that most likely outcome, but I would absolutely kick myself if I didn't have a base amount of the moneyline when anything could happen as Alvarez returns to the echelon of superfights for the first time in at least two years. Realistically, he hasn't fought someone this experienced and talented since Gennediy Golovkin in 2018, and we got two controversial decisions in that two-part series.

The last time Alvarez closed south of -500 was against "GGG," and he's been in some really competitive fights since that series. Canelo is almost always been overvalued in odds markets, and that definitely isn't going to change on this particular weekend.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.