3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 9/23/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Trent Grisham to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Seven different New York Yankees are +350 or shorter to hit a home run tonight. We might as well snag the best one of the bunch at +320.

On a team with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and other bombers, it's Trent Grisham that leads the squad in round trips against right-handed pitching (8) over the past 30 days. Surprisingly, only three have come at Yankee Stadium, MLB's best home run venue for left-handed bats. That should change if his flyball (57.5%) and hard-hit rates (47.5%) in these parameters stay out of control.

I'll be honest with you; I'm not sure why so many Yankees are short because this matchup is closer to okay than special. Shane Smith's overall HR/9 (1.0) is actually quite good, but a deeper dive shows the righty allowing 2.2 HR/9 to left-handed sticks on the road. Smith's flyball (44.6%) and hard-hit (34.6%) rates are also both at least four percentages higher against opposite-handed bats.

Ben Rice (+340) and Jazz Chisholm (+350) were in consideration, but Grisham's contact splits are in a different galaxy of late.

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+370)

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Los Angeles Angels lefty Sam Aldegheri isn't going to be great in this first (and final) start of 2025.

Out of necessity, L.A. turns to the lefty tonight, but he didn't really ace the Triple-A level, either. Aldegheri had a 7.74 xFIP and coughed up 1.8 HR/9 in Triple-A in Salt Lake. He also had a 6.54 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 13.0 MLB innings last year, and it's 6.47 after two relief appearances so far.

We'll get at least one Bobby Witt Jr. at-bat against him, and the rest might come facing a Halos bullpen with baseball's second-worst SIERA (4.24) over the past 30 days.

The Kansas City Royals' shortstop has been tearing the cover off the ball against lefties, but he just hasn't faced many. In just 45 plate appearances (PAs) since August 1st, he's posted a .938 OPS, .321 ISO, 60.7% (!) flyball rate, and 50.0% hard-hit rate. The latter two are a match made in heaven for this southpaw.

FanDuel's oddsmakers see just one homer for Witt Jr. since August 1st, but I see a small sample with elite contact -- and a tremendously vulnerable opener he'll face tonight.

Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+310)

The Houston Astros are in the thick of the Wild Card race, and they should continue to (finally) reap the rewards of signing Christian Walker this past offseason.

At worst, Walker has once again become the southpaw terminator that he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Since August 1st, Walker has slugged .533 with a .289 ISO against left-handed pitching, and his contact splits are lethal. His team-high three bombs in these parameters were no accident with flyball (70.0%) and hard-hit (60.0%) rates so massive. Like Witt, he just hasn't seen many, garnering only 27 PAs in this time.

Jeffrey Springs has proven to be a homer target all year when in his Triple-A ballpark. Springs has permitted 2.2 HR/9 against right-handers at Sutter Health Park, and their gigantic flyball rate (46.5%) in this split could be a reason why.

Walker has torched southpaws since the deadline, and Springs has failed in this spot consistently. Someone will have to inch this game toward its 11.5-run total, and the 'Stros first baseman seems primed and ready.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.