3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 7/24/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Spencer Torkelson to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Eric Lauer has become a solid contributor for the Toronto Blue Jays since being moved to the starting rotation, but he's still susceptible to being hit hard, especially against right-handed batters. Along with ranking in the 8th percentile in average exit velocity (91.2 MPH), 21st percentile in hard-hit rate (44.6%), and 4th percentile in groundball rate (29.9%), Lauer is permitting a 1.27 HR/9 and 53.5% flyball rate to righties.

On top of that, Lauer performs worse on the road versus right-handed hitters, giving up a 1.57 HR/9 and 54.1% flyball rate in that split (compared to a 0.92 HR/9 and 52.5% flyball rate to right-handed batters at home). Taking all of that into account, Spencer Torkelson certainly stands out in the home run market on Thursday.

Up to this point, Torkelson is sporting an elite .420 wOBA, 174 wRC+, and .361 ISO versus southpaws in 2025. Additionally, since the start of last season, Torkelson owns a .333 ISO or better and 12.5% barrel rate or better against three of Lauer's four primary pitches versus right-handed batters (four-seam fastball, curveball, and slider).

Tyler Soderstrom to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Although Tyler Soderstrom has certainly cooled off after an impressive start to the season, he's still hitting the cover off the baseball. Aside from Soderstrom sitting in the 74th percentile in xSLG (.481), 81st percentile in barrel rate (13.0%), and 77th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.0%), he's tallied the 22nd-best barrel rate (20.7%) over the last 14 days.

Soderstrom is also producing a stellar .368 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and .231 ISO against right-handed hurlers this year, and Jason Alexander is expected to start for the Houston Astros on Thursday. In a small sample of 15.0 innings pitched across 6 appearances (1 start), Alexander is recording a woeful 5.46 SIERA, 5.81 xFIP, 11.5% barrel rate, and 1.80 HR/9.

Against left-handed hitters, Alexander is giving up a .419 wOBA, 2.35 HR/9, and 44.0% flyball rate in his limited action this season. With Soderstrom having 6 of his last 11 batted balls that have been put in play clock in at 98-plus MPH, he's in good enough form to send one into the stands on Thursday.

Yoan Moncada to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Logan Evans is expected to make his 11th start of the season for the Seattle Mariners, and he's currently in the 6th percentile in xERA (5.51), 8th percentile in average exit velocity (91.2 MPH), 15th percentile in barrel rate (10.9%), and 11th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.3%). Besides Evans not benefitting from taking the mound at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park (30th in park factor over the last three seasons), he'll be on the bump at Angel Stadium (8th in park factor over the last three seasons) instead.

On the road this season, Evans is coughing up a .410 wOBA and 2.03 HR/9, and those numbers increase to a .531 wOBA and 2.61 HR/9 when he faces a left-handed hitter on the road. While the Los Angeles Angels don't have many left-handed sluggers to deploy, Yoan Moncada is one of them who can do some damage against Evans.

As a switch-hitter, Moncada is registering a .381 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and .290 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 2025, and he's a slight boost at home, with a .385 wOBA, 148 wRC+, and .321 ISO at Angel Stadium. Winds are blowing out to right field at Angel Stadium on Thursday, improving Moncada's case even further in a positive matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.