3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 9/15/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.
That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.
Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?
Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.
Today's Best Home Run Props
Ronald Acuna to Hit a Home Run (+330)
Ronald Acuna Jr.'s drop in the batting order was short-lived, and he's now recorded at least one hit in four of his last six games, including a dinger on Friday. Acuna will have a great opportunity to deposit another one in the outfield seats against lefty Mitchell Parker.
It's been far more bad than good for Parker this season. He enters Monday with a 5.69 ERA, and his xERA is somehow even worse at 5.97. He's also in the first percentile in hard-hit rate allowed (50.8%). Against right-handed batters, he's put up a 15.1% strikeout rate and 35.3% ground-ball rate, which is a big reason why he's given up 1.47 HR/9 in the split.
Injuries have limited Acuna to 16 home runs in 2025, but the underlying power numbers are still there. He's produced a 14.9% barrel rate (92nd percentile) and 51.2% hard-hit rate (91st percentile), helping him to a .518 xSLG (90th percentile). He's also reached a 115.5 mph maximum exit velocity (96th percentile).
In such a plus matchup, we shouldn't be shocked if Acuna tallies his 17th dinger of the season tonight.
James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+460)
On the other side of that Atlanta Braves-Washington Nationals battle, James Wood looks like a great value to hit a home run against Spencer Strider.
Following last year's elbow surgery, Strider hasn't come anywhere close to his previous elite levels this season, as his 4.86 ERA is nearly identical to his 4.91 xERA. This includes a troubling 10.7% barrel rate (13th percentile) and 91.5 mph average exit velocity (4th percentile). Add in a drop in strikeout rate (24.6%), and he's been coughing up far more home runs (1.51 HR/9) than we're used to.
When facing lefties, Strider has logged a 4.53 xFIP, 22.0% strikeout rate, and 36.3% ground-ball rate, which are all marks Wood can take advantage of. The 22-year-old leads the Nats with 27 home runs, and that's supported by a 15.9% barrel rate (94th percentile), 56.0% hard-hit rate (98th percentile), 94.2 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile), and 118.0 mph maximum exit velocity (99th percentile).
Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+370)
Texas Rangers right-hander Jack Leiter has allowed just 0.95 HR/9, but his 8.4% HR/FB rate is well below the league average, and just everything in his underlying numbers point to regression.
Not only does Leiter have a very low ground-ball rate (36.4%), but it's not like he's suppressed loud contact, either, as shown by a 10.9% barrel rate (12th percentile) and 42.7% hard-hit rate (31st percentile). In same-handed matchups, he's showing a 4.95 xFIP, 21.6% strikeout rate, and a 45.5% fly-ball rate, yet he's given up a mere 1.00 HR/9 in the split.
Christian Walker's overall numbers have been slightly down in 2025, but he's still demonstrated solid power behind a 12.7% barrel rate (80th percentile) and 90.9 mph average exit velocity (70th percentile). Further, 19 of his 23 home runs have come off righties this season. Walker has recorded hits in eight of his last nine games, hitting two bombs over that stretch.
Leiter looks to be fortunate to have allowed so few round-trippers, making this a potential value to back Walker to knock one out.
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