3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 7/24/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers

Blue Jays Moneyline (+110)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 6-4 over the last 10 and have won 5 of their last 6 games. While the Detroit Tigers' 60-43 record on the season certainly catches the eye, they are on a brutal slide by winning 1 of the last 10 games. Toronto has nearly an identical record at 60-42, and tonight's meeting features a pair of quality starters in Eric Lauer and Reese Olson.

Focusing on Lauer, his most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (46.1%) and cutter (21.4%), but Detroit is in the top 11 of runs above average against both pitches. However, Toronto's hurler checks out elsewhere by allowing 1.03 home runs per nine innings pitched, which is on pace for a career-best in MLB. Plus, he has allowed only one dinger over his previous three starts. Lauer's numbers for the season are already impressive with a 2.80 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 3.44 SIERA, and 3.82 xFIP, and these numbers keep improving with xFIPs of 3.08 or lower over his last three starts.

We get our first angle for the Blue Jays moneyline when looking into Olson's numbers. While he touts an elite 2.71 ERA, his 3.66 xERA, 3.94 SIERA, and 3.77 xFIP all raise eyebrows. Plus, Olson has logged xFIPs surpassing 5.00 in two of his past three appearances. Toronto may have a few more advantages in this pitching matchup, ranking in the top 12 of runs above average against Olson's top three most-used pitches while touting the 10th-highest walk rate compared to Olson ranking in the 38th percentile of the category.

Advanced stats suggest Lauer should turn in a stronger start on Thursday. The Tigers' batting order is more forgiving right now, too, posting only 2.6 runs per game over the last 10 compared to the Jays' mark of 4.8 in the split. Toronto's bullpen even has the 2nd-lowest SIERA compared to Detroit sporting the 14th-lowest mark.

I cannot overlook the recent stretches from each team ahead of this meeting. The Blue Jays +110 moneyline looks too juicy to pass up.

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 8.5 Total Runs (-122)

Two notable starters in Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray will on the bump between the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals. This quickly turns my attention to the under, but does this side check out with the numbers?

I'm not too concerned about the Padres having a ton of success. Gray has been solid as usual with a 4.04 ERA, 3.82 xERA, 3.07 SIERA, and 2.89 xFIP. He comes off a brutal showing with 11 hits and 8 earned runs allowed, but Gray still posted a 3.22 xFIP. In fact, he's posted xFIPs 3.22 or lower in five straight starts and four of the last five have featured xFIPs of 2.85 or lower. San Diego posts only 3.99 runs per game (sixth-lowest), and the struggles have continued with 3.80 runs per contest over the last 10. Furthermore, San Diego is in the bottom 11 of runs above average against two of Gray's three most-used tools (four-seam fastball and sinker).

Darvish is likely the big pause for the under. Through only three starts, he has a 6.08 ERA, 4.29 xERA, 5.20 SIERA, and 5.15 xFIP. This comes after posting underwhelming SIERAs of 3.91 and 4.04 in the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

St. Louis' numbers against Darvish's top pitches could be the saving grace for the under. He's leaning on a slider (21.9%), sinker (21.4%), and curveball (16.7%); the Cardinals have the 14th-fewest runs above average against sliders, 3rd-fewest when facing sinkers, and 10th-lowest against curveballs. Last season, Darvish's four-seam fastball had his second-highest usage rate (18.4%), but this has fallen to 8.8% in his three starts of 2025. With the Cards touting the eighth-most runs above average against four-seamers, this drop in usage rate is for the better.

If Darvish slips, the Padres' bullpen provides great relief with the lowest ERA and seventh-lowest SIERA. Gray will likely do most of the heavy lifting for the under, and a good pitch type for Darvish backed by a quality bullpen rounds out the pick.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

Angels -0.5 First 5 Innings Run Line (-114)

Carrying a -138 line, the Los Angeles Angels are a clear favorite against the Seattle Mariners. One piece of this matchup sticks out like a sore thumb, turning my attention to a comfortable cushion for the Angels in the first five innings.

The Mariners will likely put themselves in a hole by starting Logan Evans. Initially, his 3.81 ERA doesn't look that bad, but the rookie has concerning advanced numbers: a 5.51 xERA, 4.66 SIERA, and 4.56 xFIP. Additionally, Evans is in the 37th percentile or lower in 11 of Baseball Savant's 12 major categories. His 5.59 ERA over the previous four starts prove regression has arrived.

The Halos' clear strength is power, ranking eighth in SLG, fifth in isolated power, and third in home run percentage. Evans has allowed 1.49 home runs per nine innings pitch while ranking in the 15th and 11th percentile of barrel and hard-hit rates allowed.

Seattle's batting order is capable of carrying the load with 4.61 runs per game (10th-most). However, Yusei Kikuchi leans on a slider (36.7%) and four-seamer (35.3%), and the Mariners are in the bottom eight of runs above average against both pitches -- which is about as good as you could ask for against a productive batting order. Kikuchi has been a candidate for regression with a 3.13 ERA and 4.26 xERA, but he's posted xFIPs of 2.88 or lower in five of his past eight starts. With Seattle totaling only 1.9 runs per game over its last six games, I like Kikuchi's chances of turning in another solid start.

Ultimately, Evans' struggles against power hitting has me firmly on L.A. to excel in the early going.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.