3 Best Bets to Win the Fourstardave Handicap

The turf mile division in New York reaches its summer pinnacle this weekend at Saratoga Race Course in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1). It offers a $500,000 purse as well as an automatic berth to the Breeders’ Cup Mile for the winner. The one-mile turf race will be run Sunday, August 11. It had originally been scheduled for Saturday, but has been pushed forward a day to give the course an extra day to recover from the effects of Tropical Storm Debby.

Originally run as the Daryl’s Joy Stakes, local favorite Fourstardave won the race in both 1990 and 1991, and the race was renamed for him in 1996. The race has been a rich source of Breeders’ Cup Mile winners: Lure, Da Hoss, Wise Dan, Tourist, and World Approval all swept the double—and in the case of Wise Dan, twice. Casa Creed won for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott in both 2022 and 2023, but with this two-time winner now retired, it is time for a new horse to take on the mantle of Saratoga’s premier turf mile.

Six horses are expected to run in the 2024 edition of the Fourstardave after the scratch of Master of the Seas due to a foot bruise. From a wagering perspective, these are the most interesting runners.

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1. Carl Spackler (Fourstardave Handicap odds: 9-5 ML)

Carl Spackler has seemed like the next big horse for Chad Brown for a year and a half, since a blowout maiden win at Gulfstream, and this looks like the day he breaks through in Grade 1 company. It is his first start in Grade 1 company. He has three graded stakes wins already, including a score in the Kelso during Saratoga Race Course opening weekend. His defeat in the Poker Stakes in June raised questions about his form, but he looked back to his old self in the Kelso and his form suggests there is plenty of room to keep moving forward.

The short field looks to favor a horse who can get a forward trip. Though likely pacesetter Strong Quality may not be good enough to see it all the way out against this kind of company, Carl Spackler has the speed to come away well from a middle gate, settle a length or two back, and take command in the lane.

The biggest question for him is the turf condition, as he has never tried ground any softer than good. However, both of his non-firm starts were open-lengths wins at Saratoga, which gives him plenty of upside in this spot. He has also won four of five starts at Saratoga Race Course, meaning this is the time and place for Carl Spackler to flash his best.

2. Ottoman Fleet (Fourstardave Handicap odds: 8-5 ML)

The morning-line favorite for the Fourstardave after the scratch of stablemate Master of the Seas, the Charlie Appleby trainee has a lot going for him. He has the class: he is a multiple graded-stakes and group stakes winner with several placings at the top level. He has been able to show out over soft ground, as evidenced by a Group 3 win over such conditions at Newmarket last year. And, he is typically found on or near the lead, the right running style for this race.

The biggest question for Ottoman Fleet is the distance. He comes in off of two straight graded-stakes victories at Churchill Downs at 1 1/16 miles, and is well-proven at 1 ⅛ miles as well. However, this five-year-old has never tried the flat mile—he and Money Supply are the only two without at least one race at the distance on turf. Between that and the fact that Strong Quality is mired on the fence, expect Ottoman Fleet not to be the pacesetter. The question is where he settles: he is versatile enough to win from a stalking spot or even further back, but if the mile proves too sharp, he won’t have the best of it pace-wise compared to the likes of Carl Spackler. Even so, he is the class of the field, and he may still just prove too good.

3. Strong Quality (Fourstardave Handicap odds: 8-1)

The top two choices on the morning line for the Fourstardave stand out on form and class, and are the most likely winners. But, among the rest of the field, the pace sets up best for Strong Quality. A five-year-old dark bay conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Strong Quality has some class to prove after running eighth and last in the Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga Race Course during Belmont week. However, that was at 1 3/16 miles. The shorter distance may be better for him: he won his only try at a mile on the grass, though that was a long time ago, and won a restricted stakes at a mile on the dirt two back at Churchill.

The rainy forecast also makes Strong Quality particularly interesting. Back in February, he missed by only a neck over soft ground in the 1 ⅛-mile Fair Grounds Stakes (G3). With a rainy week due to storm systems, including Tropical Storm Debby, he may get wet conditions similar to what he got then.

Make sure you’re getting at least the morning line before you take a shot with Strong Quality, as he has a lot of class to prove in this race. However, as one of the likely longest shots in the field, the wet conditions and the likely pedestrian pace put Strong Quality in the driver’s seat for a game of catch-me-if-you-can.

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